I highly doubt we will lose him. The best course of action is stick to a contract offer the team thinks is fair based on his injury history and risk. If he declines then let him look for other offers and just match it. There’s very little chance anyone throws a max out his way given his injury history and also Rockets can take up to three days and take their sweet time and then match it. That will discourage teams from even offering. Just let it be known that you won’t let him go and you’ll match any offers after a 3 day period and that should discourage other teams.
Tari having to defend smaller guards is not ideal. But we really don't have any 3&D guy that can play full time guard. But he doesn't have to do it all the time, just filling in when Amen is not there.
I, also, have been pleasantly surprised with his progress. Previously, I thought it a foregone conclusion that he gets dealt so as to insure us against the downside risk of injury. But, his play has won me over. It makes for a tough decision by Rockets brass. Trading him now in a deal for anything less than a star seems unlikely. I think he's looking at a deal similar to Jabari.
Really? How? Outside of us, presently there are only 6 teams who can offer Tari more than the taxpayer MLE - Brooklyn, Memphis, Utah, Milwaukee, San Antonio, and Charlotte....and of that group really Brooklyn and Memphis are the only two who can make larger offers. Tari is a nice player, but we are seeing that the new CBA's salary cap restrictions are really turning the league into a hard cap system and it's pinching the middle class in the NBA - true stars still get max deals, but those borderline stars are not getting anywhere close to what they got in the past and as good as Tari is, I don't think anyone necessarily has "certain future multi-year all star" in pen next to his name. I think there is a chance Houston is able to retain him for a reasonable price...Tari might not like it - but the problem is the CBA system and not the team. I'm just not sure Tari's agent is aware of that because if he had been, he probably wouldn't have recommended his client go into RFA in the first place because so far that has not been a great path for players in the new CBA.
My guess is that the Rockets offered a very team-friendly deal regarding years/options. RFA may not be friendly, but getting the extension from the Rockets has only been player-friendly for Jalen Green and JSJ.
This is less about what Houston did specifically in the recent past and more "this is how teams appear to be changing today to respond to the new CBA". FWIW, Sam Vecenie discussed this a bit in his most recent pod about trade deadline winners/losers and talked about the types of contracts that moved, and why he thinks that is(referring back to recent CBA changes, convos he is having with front offices, etc)
Without knowing what the Rockets offered it's hard to say what the agent should or shouldn't have recommended. Do we even know for sure the Rockets' offer was more compelling than non-taxpayer MLE? They could have offered Tari a KPJ type contract which would have offered him no long-term security. Quentin Grimes' upcoming free agency might be a preview for Tari as to how accepting the qualifying offer might go. Grimes didn't get a deal in his RFA either so if UFA doesn't pan out for him Tari might be willing to settle for a team-friendly deal to stay here.
You are right - we don't necessarily know what they offered. I would imagine long term deals are not something being offered to non stars anymore. Given the loopholes to duck under the 2nd cap x times in y years, I would think teams load up on stars, give them the bank, and the years...and the role players/mid tier guys are the ones who will be on shorter term deals to duck under those thresholds on a cadence to allow teams to balloon to 2nd salary tier teams strategically and duck back down just as strategically.
I think Rockets are going to be over the tax for a while, but just don't go crazy over. This will minimize tax payments and not need the yoyoing on the roster of going up and down to dodge the repeater tax. Other than not having a Top 10 player, I think the Rockets have a pretty good financial situation going forward the next few years. I think next year will be the squeeze, and then the Rockets start to lose vets as Amen and Reed get extended.
The stars have always gotten the bank and the years, so nothing's changed there. Hard to see what will change for role players/mid tier guys as most teams outside of contenders are operating under the 2nd apron, where the really punitive restrictions happen. Can teams really use that as leverage against their role players to accept shorter and lesser contracts in that case? I'm not so sure. Teams want to lock up their good role players, especially when trying to contend. They don't want to put them in a position to walk to a less competitive team. What seems just as likely to happen is that teams will be stingier about trading away 1st round picks as those can be attached to players to unload salary to teams under the cap, if necessary. Teams will still control their players and the timing of offloading salary, they just can't be as aggressive in talent acquisition as before. We're kind of seeing that with the Rockets at the moment. Jabari wasn't shorted on years or salary, he got 5 years/$122M fully guaranteed. They're also holding onto their 1st round picks even though KD is already 37. If Tari didn't get a long-term offer it was because of other reasons than 2nd apron flexibility IMO.
