At [Ranger] Suárez’s news conference, [Boston GM] Breslow couldn’t have made his preference to prioritize infield defense any clearer. “Any additions that we may make, we’ll be very mindful of the defensive skill set,” he said. For that reason, free-agent third basemen Eugenio Suárez (minus-4 Outs Above Average in 2025) and Houston trade candidate Isaac Paredes (minus-3 OAA) are less than ideal fits. The Astros, according to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, have long coveted Wilyer Abreu, whom they traded to Boston as part of a deal for Christian Vázquez in 2022. It’s doubtful the Red Sox would move Abreu for Paredes alone. Meanwhile, a team source indicated a preference for Marcelo Mayer [#4 overall pick in 2021 out of HS] to start at third base over second base. The rookie infielder took over third last season after Bregman’s injury and filled in admirably. Staying on the same side of the infield would help the 23-year-old, a natural shortstop, make a transition back to short smoother once Trevor Story’s deal is up following the 2027 season. If Mayer is the leading candidate at third base, the Red Sox may be targeting a strong defensive second baseman. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/70...sox-trade-interest-starting-pitchers-infield/
I agree with this, for opening day and still think Yordan should be playing a lot of LF and Altuve 2B with Paredes at DH. Just to put it out there, both Chandler Rome and the recently posted Crawfish Boxes predictions has Paredes on the bench in favor of Zach Cole in LF. It should be noted that the Astros open with the Angels in Houston and Kikuchi is the likely SP. Because he is a lefty and a high K pitcher, it would be beneficial to have Cole on the bench and Paredes in the lineup.
Donovan doesn’t scare me much… but he certainly extends their lineup. Hopefully Seattle gave up a decent haul
I don’t put stock in those predictions. Isaac Paredes is going to be a regular in the Astros lineup, as will Christian Walker. The only way that changes is with a trade. Zach Cole is competing with Jesus Sanchez in Spring Training to be the second left-handed outfield bat besides Yordan Alvarez, unless Cam Smith looks terrible.
Cijntje and Peete are both legitimate prospects but I still do this deal every day. Astros have nobody close to Cijntje so need to improve on Williamson for a comp. Maybe: Matthews, Ullola, and Frey? Mariner's package is still probably better.
I am with this take. Unless I'm missing transactions, sea lost Polanco and Suárez and replaced him with Donovan. I don't think they've improved offensively. Cal can have another great year but don't see him replicating his last season.
Astros equivalent would have been something like Miguel Ullola, Brice Matthews, Ryan Forcucci, and Ethan Frey. Fair price but I’m ok with Houston not paying it.
After adding Donovan, Mariners project to 4.5 wins more than the Astros. Astros are closer to the Rangers projection than the Mariners. Astros also have <50% odds to make the playoffs.
I think Seattle getting Donovan was a big add. I think at this point they should be the clear favorite in the ALW. However, I think Cal must come back to Earth, some, and Polanco had a great year which mitigates the improvement a bit. The Astros certainly aren't out of it. Outside of McCullers, Fangraphs projections are really low on all the Astros SP. They have Hunter as the only Astros SP with 2+ WAR, but the Angels have 4, including Reid Detmers and Grayson Rodriguez? There is a lot of potential volatility in the Astros outfield. If Meyers maintains, Cam takes a step, and Cole makes enough contact it could be league average or maybe better. Or it could be the worst OF in MLB. The SP and OF is going to determine how far this team goes but I would definitely give them a better than 50/50 chance at making the postseason- just not much more than 50. Getting a legitimate everyday OF (or committing to giving LF to Yordan) would really improve those odds.
I am curious to see what - if anything the Astros do in response. They are largely hamstrung from a trade perspective; they cannot force Boston to make a deal - but they can spend money if they are that confident that they are going to compete. There are still a number of good players available. I personally don't know what to expect from a performance perspective. They have the talent to win the division if they get some breaks. The same is true for the Mariners, and there is even a world where the Rangers win the division on the back of their pitching and young hitters blossoming. The Mariners had a career year out of Raleigh, and possibly close to that from Naylor. Arozerena had his best year in several seasons. Then again, J-Rod could improve this year as well. I personally think the M's pitching is their strength - they had a down year out of a few guys, so it will be interesting to see how they respond.
The Astros’ only hope is if their SP (Imai, Javier, and Burrows) are being dramatically underrated by the projection systems. Their lineup is good but not good enough to overcome mediocre SP.
I don't know, I personally think that the Donovan trade for the Mariners is being overstated. Last year they had Polanco in the middle of their line up and he is a better hitter than Donovan. Polanco is bad with the glove, and Donovan is competent but he isn't a Gold Glover. The splits for Donovan L/R were pretty severe last year, and he was only a .700 OPS guy in the second half after a really strong first half. We will have to wait and see. I think the M's future really hinges on their starting pitching and whether they get better or not.
The projection models don’t have a good way to factor in the Astros’ elite pitching development program. They have gotten better than expected results from so many minor league arms that nobody thought much of (J.P. France, Jason Alexander, and Brandon Walter, to name a few) and turned veteran careers around (Yusei Kikuchi). I’m confident in their ability to get the most out of Imai, Burrows, etc. Also, let’s not forget Cristian Javier was pitching like an ace before his elbow blew up. Provided his arm is healthy, he still has a lot of upside. If the Astros can stay healthy (in particular keeping Alvarez in the lineup) and Diaz and Walker bounce back at the plate, the Astros will be good.
Agreed - the reality is that if the Astros' starting pitching is mediocre, they aren't winning anything. That would be the case even if the Astros added another bat. Because the Astros have been getting unexpected results from guys for a decade now, there is an assumption that Imai and Burrows are going to become stalwarts in 2026 and that may not come to fruition. Neither is proven in the big leagues like some of the pitchers signed by other teams. I think that there is a viable path to the starting pitching being very good - there are guys like Blubaugh and Imai and Burrows and maybe even Arrighetti that could slide into being solid to very good. I also think that the pen has the potential to be elite as well with depth and top end arms... but that is all conjecture at this point. Defensively I think that there is upside if the Astros actually keep Altuve at second and Alvarez mostly at DH. Correa, Walker, Pena, Meyers and Smith all are close to elite with the glove --- and if he doesn't strike himself out of the line up, Cole should be a very good glove as well. Altuve is fine at second and Diaz is not a complete hole either. I don't have a lot of confidence in the lineup though, unless there is good health and someone like Cole or Sullivan or Smith becomes a legitimate 800 OPS guy playing 145 games.
The Astros roster has more upside than any team outside of the Dodgers, Mets, and maybe Blue Jays. But they also have the downside of a 75 win team. Last season threw the franchise into a lot of uncertainty.
As always the Stros will be as good as their pitching. For the Stros to win the division they need 3 of these 4 bats to happen. Walker needs to be 2nd half Walker for a full season Diaz has to get back to rookie Diaz with the bat. Smith needs a full season like the 1st half of last season Smith. Cole needs to continue the tradition of Stros prospects coming up and contributing immediately. Adam Dunn lite, If these 3 things dont happen then Dezenzo is a great option as a fallback plan Or Dana can make a deal at the deadline to add a bat. I believe that 3 of these things will happen, so this really is going to comedown to pitching. Imai and Burrows will be fine and I trust Miller to get the best out of the pitching staff. The bullpen worries me a bit though. The defense should be excellent besides Altuve at 2B, depending on what you think of Diaz.
