3 of the SPs (Imai, Burrows, Weiss) that are unknown quantities. 2 of the remaining SPs (Javier, Arrighetti) are know quantities, that have a track record of not going deep into games. I can see a case where the Astros brain trust want to have 2 or maybe 3 long relievers to save the heart of the bullpen. From the above list, Weiss and Pearson might fill that role. Blubaugh could fill that role but Munoz or De Los Santos would have to go. McCullers could fill the role, if healthy. If the Astros brain trust think way out of the box, they could make McCullers a 2 IP opener and pitch him 1 or 2 times a week. I also do not know if the Astros have the luxury to hide Munoz and/or De Los Santos at the end of the bullpen, in order to see if they can mind gold with a year of development with Miller.
I don't know if the Astros brain trust is even considering this but @No Worries thinks that Lance could be used as an opener (like Tampa Bay does). Technically, Lance would not be in the bullpen. Lance would likely be paired with another pitcher and would start/open one game game a week. The big payoff would be if the Astros make the playoffs and Lance is pitching well. In that scenario, Lance plus another SP could get the Astros to the 8th inning, which might be enough to ensure a win.
I think it is highly unlikely LMJ is on the roster coming out of spring training … unless he shows great stuff and results. With a 6 man rotation, we can’t afford to allow LMJ to have blow up starts that kills the pen like last year. Especially since our other arms (besides Hunter Brown) are certainly not foolproof and could also get bombed in early outings. We just don’t know what Weiss, Arrighetti and Pearson will give us, or Burrows, Imai or Javier for that matter. I hope the Astros brass is clear with LMJ and tells him you gotta be ready to shine in spring training. If not, you will begin the year on the IL until we get through some portion of the early season and understand what we have. Also, there is close to zero risk with this approach. I don’t think LMJ is going to sign on elsewhere because he is so talented that they will want him. Also, I do believe he wants to be buried in the H and wants to finish his career here. Short of him feeling like this is a massive insult and he turns heel on the org, he will need to be a good teammate and soldier.
Munoz was a starter prior to 2025 and averaged 1.46 ip per appearance last year, so I think he can be a multi inning option. The plan is to stretch Pearson out so he can also be a 2 inning guy. It will not surprise me if De Los Santos is DFA in deference to another multi inning arm (either McCullers or Blubaugh would be my guesses, but could also be an NRI they really like). So the pitching plan would be: Innings 1-5: Brown, Imai, Javier, Burrows, Arrighetti, Weiss 9th leverage: Hader 8th leverage: Abreu 7th leverage: King Low leverage: Okert Multi inning Middle relief and low leverage late innings: Pearson, Munoz, TBD I think they fully expect Brown, Weiss, Imai, and Burrows to regularly get thru 6 innings though. Javier and Arrighetti will be the ones who regularly need a bridge reliever. At some point, likely in the first half of the season, they’ll go down to a 5 man rotation and have an extra multi inning RP which will make things way more manageable.
Burrows made it through 6 innings once last year. He only made it through 5 in 5 of his 19 starts. He might get there eventually, but I doubt he's going from 90 innings last year to a 180-200 inning pace this year. Even Hunter Brown didn't make it through 6 in 9 of his 31 starts last year. I suspect anyone else is looking at 50% at best and probably lower realistically.
In recent memory, the Astros break ST camp with one or more pitchers on IL. This season they will begin ST camp with a couple of pitchers on IL.
I think that we can pencil in Hayden Wesneski - May 2025 TJ Ronel Blanco - early June 2025 TJ Brandon Walter - late September 2025 TJ to spend the entire season on the IL. If the stars line up just right, Wesneski or Blanco might be ready to pitch in September-ish 2026 ... but ... the Astros should not be counting on this.
By the 6th inning you are deep into the 3rd or perhaps 4th time through the batting order. The pitchers advantage generally is just about nullified. So other than truly special pitchers, few starting pitchers, even the top talents toil from the 6th inning on; for besides your Cy young candidates it isn’t common going deep into games. Baseball hitters will usually adjust enough to catch up to whatever pitches a guy they’ve faced 3 times. pitchers are too good first few time against batters; and batters are too good to stay down too long after they’ve seen a few pitches from pitchers. It’s almost a game of chicken, who will flinch first. And hopefully coaches need to know when to step in to pull pitchers before they become whiffle ball throwers.
Problem is Lance had an 8.76 ERA in the first inning this last year. Walked 12 in 12.1 first innings. I'm not sure his presence on the roster is a positive if he's setting us up poorly every 5th day. Just start the bulk guy.
eugenio suarez would be the obvious fit positionally. Seems it is deal or no deal time if any Paredes trade to Red Sox is gonna happen.
Could be, but they're sending $8M to CWS too, so it's not like they're saving a ton of money this season. It could also be a "this guy isn't that good" dump.
Wasn't Burrows coming off hid Tommy John? I think they had an innings limit on him. Im sure the Astros would like to push it a little. After he had a healthy return.
Kind of - he had surgery in April 2023 and returned in summer 2024. Then he had the offseason and then the 2025 season was 2 years post-surgery. But it was his first full season with a normal spring routine/etc.
Or the flipside is that if the Red Sox were really desperate for a 3B, they easily could have beat the Suarez offer. That indicates they are pretty confident they can acquire one for a price they like or they just don't care that much about getting one.
