Their hypothetical of Pena for Duran and a lesser prospect was ridiculous, but a Pena to Boston trade isn’t insane. Maybe: Red Sox get: SS Jeremy Pena RP Bryan Abreu Astros get: OF Jarren Duran P Connelly Early IF Mikey Romero P Marcus Phillips Astros restock their farm system and get a controllable LH OF who can lead off. Red Sox bolster their infield and bullpen. Astros roster: OF Duran 3B Paredes DH Alvarez SS Correa 2B Altuve C Diaz 1B Walker OF Sanchez/Meyers platoon OF Cole Bench: Matthews, Allen, Salazar SP: Brown, Imai, Javier, Burrows, Arrighetti, Weiss RP: Hader, King, Pearson, McCullers, Okert, Munoz, De Los Santos Optioned: Gordon, Early, Blubaugh, Alexander, France, Ullola, Murray, Sousa, Whitcomb, Dezenzo, Smith 60-Day IL: Blanco, Wesneski, Walter, McCullers
Correa will not be playing SS full time. He made it clear at fan fest that he isn’t even the backup. Which is a shame because I agree Peña would be the most valuable trade chip … but it’s just off of the table it seems.
Astros get: SS Dyan Jorge OF Mickey Moniak Rockies get: 1B Christian Walker $24M ($12M 2026, $12M 2027) Rockies GM mentioned adding at 1B yesterday; Walker could very well end up being the best hitter on their team. This clears 1B for Paredes, adds a LHH OF, adds a high risk/ceiling AA SS (Jorge was a big bonus int’l signee) and opens up $4M in 2026 payroll flexibility. Also makes trading Meyers or Sanchez a lot easier. Resulting position player roster: SS Pena 1B Paredes DH Alvarez 3B Correa 2B Altuve C Diaz LF Sanchez/Matthews platoon RF Moniak/Smith platoon CF Cole/Meyers platoon Bench: Vazquez, Allen
Moniak projected WAR: 0.9 Walker projected WAR: 1.7 This makes the team worse and gives away 24M. Hard no.
Fangraphs projects Walker for 1.7 fwar over 616 pa. They project Moniak for 0.9 over 469. It’s a minimal difference after factoring in the playing time difference and is more than overcome in the Astros favor when factoring in the freed up payroll and the benefit of getting Paredes more playing time. And that doesn’t take into account the value of the prospect.
Does adding Moniak and removing Walker actually add wins? I have a hard time believing this to be so. I have a lot more faith that Walker plays more closely to his 2nd half production.
If you use fangraphs’ depth chart projections, it depends on how they use the extra payroll. It’s probabiy a near break even move (if you assume $4M can buy 0.4fwar), but adds a prospect and $8M payroll flexibility in 2027, so a net win. Example, if they keep Walker and Moniak’s pa the same and give Paredes the difference (at his projected war/pa rate), then use the $4M to add Winker to take a few pa from their last men on the depth chart, it’d come out like this: out: Walker: 1.7fwar over 616 pa Trammell/Dezenzo/Whitcomb: 0.3fwar over 154 pa in: Moniak: 0.9fwar over 469 pa Paredes: 0.7fwar over 156 pa Winker: 0.4fwar over 154 pa That is a net zero in 2026, but adds a prospect and $8M in payroll flexibility to 2027. If you say the deal doesn’t make sense unless Houston eats less money, I won’t really argue with that.
Walker will bounce back this year, cutting down his ks and increasing his walk rate. Won't be surprised he hits 30+ bombs again. We should keep him
The Red Sox are nuts. They do have a lot of good young players coming up, but they seem to think they can get very good players from the Astros for scraps. It would be hard for me to not be an ******* if I were a GM and kept being asked about trades that aren’t remotely realistic.
Red Sox GM, "So, we would like to take Ohtani off your hands and in exchange we have a few late round draft picks we can give you as well as some cash. Let me know if you're interested!"
I am sure the Astros have pondered the same question: at what financial price does it make sense to offload Walker? But I’m sure they also consider that the player they paid for when they gave Walker a contract could very well show up this year and next. At the end of the day, I believe that the best team we have to put on the field is the one that’s currently rostered. When Altuve or Alvarez is in LF, this team has the best shot at putting up runs. The Astros need the rest of our OF to contribute through a full 162 game season to keep everyone healthy. But for the postseason, using Alvarez in LF is going to give us the most powerful lineup.
In other words, this Red Sox front office is the equivalent of a fantasy baseball or football owner that offers insanely lopsided trades in hopes the other owner will accidentally accept. Screw them.
also, if we make the postseason, we can play out max offense lineup every game because it’s an elimination tournament at that point.
