[Official] Astros Offseason

Hmmm so we gonna have to settle for what we currently have .

 

I think its very likely that a legitimate MLB catcher is added in the next 2 weeks.

However I would be very surprised if that is a guy who we feel comfortable starting 35+ games this season.

Diaz NEEDS to take a step forward eventhough he has taken steps backward each year of his MLB career so far.

My opinion is that the Astros may end the season with catching in the bottom 5-7 in MLB.

I sure hope Janek takes a step forward and doesn't become Korey Lee.

 

ZiPS currently has the Astros projected at 2.4 for the catcher position (combined Diaz and Salazar).

SEA 5.4
TOR 4.9
ATL 4.7
SFG 4.5
MIL 4.2
ARI 3.9
BAL 3.7 LAD 3.7
DET 3.5
NYM 3.1
NYY 3.0
ATH 2.8 MIA 2.8 STL 2.8
CLE 2.7 CHC 2.7
TEX 2.5
HOU 2.4 KCR 2.4 CIN 2.4
COL 2.3
MIN 2.2
SDP 2.1
BOS 2.0
CHW 1.9
PIT 1.8
TBR 1.7
LAA 1.5
PHI 1.3
WSN 0.1

The Astros are firmly in the bottom half of projections for catchers, but I do not believe any of the available FA C's will move the needle here. Janek is definitely our hope for future improvement.

 

I think it is really hard to evaluate what the Astros catching situation will be in 2026.

For one, Diaz is coming off of his worst season, and he is still young with a lot of upside.

So, there is a lot of volatility there.... he was over 3 WAR the prior two seasons and at 2.7 WAR this year.

His approach as a hitter sucks, but he certainly has the talent to hit over 300 (hit 299 in 2024) and produce an .800 WAR, which would put him near the top of the league.

There are plenty of back up catching out there --- I am more concerned about the #2-3 in the rotation and the very unproven outfield.

I am glad that they are putting Altuve back at second though.

 

I do like having a new hitting group in there with him and I think Obi Wan Correa here the whole season could be added value for Yainer. With a full lineup and less expectations on him . . . fingers crossed this could be a career year.

 

I agree Diaz has the talent and still has the ceiling. However, after 3 consecutive seasons of falling production, I am losing hope of ever seeing it.

Is he suddenly going to reverse his trend of increased swinging at pitchers' pitches and getting worse results each year?

His swing % has gone up every year while his avg exit velo, xSLG, and WOBA have gone down.

In 2024 46.2% of pitches thrown to him were in the zone and he swung 58.8% of the time with hard hit rate of 47.5%

In 2025 only 44.7% were in the zone but he raised his swing % to 59.5% while lowering his hard hit rate to 42.2%

Last year MLB hitters swung at the 1st pitch 30.1% of the time but Yainer swung at 48.3%.

He needs to completely revamp his approach at the plate.

 

Or we just wait. Players (especially backups) routinely start signing in February or March. Even big names like Machado, Harper, wait until mid-February. I think both Correa and Bregman both did as well if I remember right.

 

All the points you make are valid - but with his age, talent and history of being slow with maturity - I do think it is very possible. He isn’t going to be the focus of teams, he also learn slowly… reminds me some of Derek Bell and Kevin Bass in that way…. Takes them awhile to get comfortable and everything clicks.

 

we might as well bring back Machete just for luck. He won't hit much worse than Salazar. Might even be able to keep Framber.

 

Noooooooooooooooooo

 

The Astros are going all out with pitching depth.

 

Villarroel isn't a major prospect or anything but he's got some value and is one of very few prospects in Houston's system with a plus hit tool. I do not like this trade, with the caveat that we should trust the Astros pitching evaluation until they show they've lost their edge.

 

Deference to the Astros on evaluating pitching talent, for sure.

I do find it interesting they traded a C away given how we were talking about the Astros C depth earlier.

 

Wu tang!!!

 

Per FGDC, Astros are currently:
Below average at RF (21st)
Average at C (17th), 1B (16th), 2B (14th), SS (11th), CF (13th), SP (19th)
Above average at LF (7th) and RP (6th)
Excellent at 3B (5th) and DH (2nd)

 

LF is high because they have Alvarez included.

 

They have him getting 154/700 pa, which would equate to ~35 games, which sounds about right and might even be on the low side if they don’t make any other roster moves.