Not a big Monk fan. Just lean into Reed and hope he returns to form if you're banking on a scorer with defensive issues. I don't think Monk has the upside of helping while there is a chance Reed figures things out. Not big on Alvarado or Ayo either, except as depth. I like Reed, Tari, and JSJ as rotation players. Right now, they aren't giving the Rockets enough to make up for the Rockets not having a Top 10 guy. I just don't think rotation players are going to be a fix unless one is a really good 4th guy (i.e., basically good enough to be a Top 3 guy). Monk, Alvardo, Ayo...they are nice depth. They probably help in the regular season. My choice would be Keon Ellis. He's not a cure-all or good enough to be that 4th guy, but I think he could fill in for some shooting while not getting pulled for defense. The Rockets would still need Amen, Durant, and Sengun to play better as the depth just isn't enough. I know you absolutely loathe FVV, but the Rockets need someone of his value without having to lose anyone contributing this year. I thought Reed would be a good enough 4th guy, but he needs to make shots. I think the Rockets still have a puncher's chance, but they need either internal improvement (including chemistry and health with youth improving) or need to get someone really good. At this point, I think a minor trade for someone that helps offense, but doesn't suck at defense (e.g., no Monk) and praying on internal improvement is the path. Edit: I will say the starting lineup of Amen, Eason, JSJ, Durant, and Sengun has played well together so far. I'm still a little skeptical that it can continue playing as well as it has. Really the only lineup that seems to be playing great. The Amen, Okogie, JSJ, Durant, and Sengun lineup is playing better lately than it was in November and most of December, but still more good enough to beat bad teams than something that wins against good teams.
Great thing about Amen and Reed is they are perfectly complementary. Like they were meant to play with each other. Reed can bring the ball up the court better and is long term probably a more secure ballhandler less apt to turn it over. But he's also great off ball. Amen is only useful in the dunker's spot off the ball, but he brings a level of penetration and a kickout game that Reed doesn't have. Defensively, Amen can be your do-everything, in your face middle linebacker who leads the team in tackles, while Reed can be more of a free safety hunting passing lanes or picking pockets of people who aren't looking. He's never going to be a plus on-ball defender, but he can be serviceable like Curry to the point where teams can't just hunt him. Amen covers up a lot of Reed's warts, and Reed will provide the shooting that is basically Amen's only glaring hole. It's been great to see Amen's passing and ballhandling skills level up this year without Fred on the court. Some could argue that it was even more important that he develop the skills we're seeing now, than for him to develop a functional outside shot.
I confess I don’t know a lot about offensive sets. I played basketball regularly until I was 56 years old, but never organized ball after the 7th grade. I defer to your knowledge in that respect. All the teams you speak of have elite Iso players that create for other players as well as score profusely. Durant is not an elite distributor like most of those guys are. He doesn’t drive to the hoop and dish. His ISO’s are almost purely to get his own shot (which more often than not is a 2 pointer). It stagnates our offense, especially at crunch time when the opponents are doubling him. During those sets it seems to me that the rest of the team is just standing around watching or preparing to crash the boards. I think it’s hard to argue that our crunch time ISO’s are effective given how many late game collapses we have this year. Sengun has been a better distributor off of ISO sets in the past, but lately seems to have become much more selfish, again stagnating our offense.
I’m assuming you got the .36 from NBA.com. I have no idea how they calculated that. Sheppard’s shot chart doesn’t really bear this out - he’s league average or above from basically everywhere.
Agree, a small rotational upgrade doesn’t excite me. Need a 4th best player that’s good on both sides of the ball. Good news is the Sengun, Durant, and Amen contracts + assets is a nice opening setup to get top tier 4th and 5th starters. They’ll probably ride it out and see what Jabari, Tari, and Reed got down the stretch. I’m highest on Tari to get there the soonest. I like Reed as a rotation guy on his contract right now and optimistic he’ll be a really good 25 year old but expecting the defense to not be playoff ready for a while. Done talking about Voldemort, he’ll probably be a good 28 year old PF/C but the opportunity cost of keeping him is way too high, will cost us playoff series wins, and his best use is as a trade piece. Worried about FVVs quickness after the injury particularly on the defensive end. Id be looking at a trade this offseason for Andrew Wiggins.
Yep. I don't think the Rockets have been good enough to win with the ball in his hands. Defenses are getting more comfortable sagging off him when he doesn't have the ball even if his man loses him a few times in the dunkers spot. It is worse with Okogie in the game as well. Reed's defense makes have Amen and Okogie both off the court at the same time difficult. Reed's shooting is keeping his lineups from being consistent. Amen, Eason, JSJ, Durant, and Sengun is the only thing really working well consistently lately. Amen with ball has enough guys shooting. KD and Sengun isos work well enough even with bad spacing. Amen and Tari work well on defense together.
THIS! Agree on Amen being a 3 who has some playmaking skills. I don't understand why we're playing like this either and it is time to play through the growth, pain, and ecstasy of Reed Sheppard Starting PG.
I don’t completely disagree that we need more movement but sometimes that’s on players to know when to cut instead standing around waiting or where to get in position for a 3 or down screening etc. I just think when you have dominant one on one players the rule of thumb is to iso them. Durant isn’t necessarily a great playmaker but he draws a lot of attention. This opens up shooters and guys underneath. But again I think the issue is we have 2 guys who can’t spread the floor so maybe we have to find another way like letting Amen create more. This is how Detroit is able to play with 2 non shooters. But the difference is Cade can pull up for a 3 and Amen can’t. I don’t know what the solution is. I just know iso for great one on one players is how coaches usually play.
I don’t know what this chart shows. But mid range is outside the paint below the 3 pt line. So anywhere from 15 ft to 22 ft. Or outside the paint on the sides. This means from FT line/elbows/baseline to just below the 3 pt line. He doesn’t shoot there often.
There's a reason why my post wasn't just about FVV but specifically about FVV in the first season here. If you go back and read my original post I already said the current FVV is probably not up to snuff. Also 20th in half court offense with rookie Amen, 2nd year Jabari, 3rd year Sengun, and new coach/role players is not something to scoff at.
Not sure who Voldemort is, but agree with a lot. I've been thinking Reed was the 4th best Rocket for a while, but it might be Tari. I do think Reed makes things really hard when he's off. He's this year's Jalen Green in that he's had really high highs, but really low lows. Overall, I think he's been a lot better than Green as Green just had too much usage to be a streaky player.
Can’t say his name, we have to pretend he’s good or the Fertittas will put out a hit.. You know, The tall poison pill guy they just spent 4 years of starter minutes and 125 million dollars on. You know what I’m saying The one that can’t dribble or catch a ball while running fast at the same time.
That's not really what happened last night though, He was trying to play through injury and couldn't. He was icing down his right knee every time he got off the court. That injury was throwing his shot off....but honestly injured players have no business being on the court to begin with. He shouldn't have even been out there 15 minutes. I get the desire to play through injury...hell I've done it and tried to do it many more times than that, but it's foolish. You have to have someone who will save players from themselves and stop that kind of behavior.
I posted this yesterday in a different thread but it's relevant here so I'll repost it. Top 8 Players by Total Minutes Played Amen Thompson (43 GP, 1606 MP) Current VORP: 1.6 On pace for: ~3.05 Level: Solid starter, below typical star threshold. Kevin Durant (41 GP, 1511 MP) Current VORP: 2.4 On pace for: ~4.8 Level: Strong star/All-Star caliber. Jabari Smith Jr. (42 GP, 1470 MP) Current VORP: 0.3 On pace for: ~0.6 Level: Replacement-level pace; well below star. Alperen Şengün (36 GP, 1232 MP) Current VORP: 2.1 On pace for: ~4.8 (if he plays ~82 at this rate) Level: Strong star/All-Star caliber (durability has limited accumulation so far). Reed Sheppard (43 GP, 1073 MP) Current VORP: 1.4 On pace for: ~2.7 Level: Good contributor, below star threshold. Josh Okogie (43 GP, 855 MP) Current VORP: 0.2 On pace for: ~0.4 Level: Replacement-level. Steven Adams (32 GP, 730 MP) Current VORP: 0.3 On pace for: ~0.8 Level: Replacement-level. Tari Eason (23 GP, 546 MP) Current VORP: 0.6 On pace for: ~2.1 (if he ramps up to full minutes/health) Level: Solid role player if durable. So, going by VORP, it's KD/Sengun basically tied for 1, Amen at 3, and Reed at 4 with Tari at least theoretically at 5th if he can stay on the court.
Jabari. Sounds overly dramatic, but I’m out on any path to championships that includes keeping him on the roster with that contract, training time, and trade value opportunity cost. League is too good, margins are too tight. Jalen vs Reed is a good comp as heat check, take over a game guys. I was higher on Jalen to do the 3 and D role player VJ Edcombe stuff when the on ball wasn’t working. Stay in front of his guy, be fast in transition, draw a good defender, etc.
Why not both? It would be really nice if all five players could play point. We already have point guard (not really yet, but getting there), point forward (also not really yet, but absolutely getting there), and point center. A defense would have a very hard time defending a team with that many playmakers.
I think we need an opponent quality metric. Correct me if I’m wrong but ranking this way assumes an equal competition level. Look at Reed Sheppard’s minutes vs Josh Okogie’s minutes for example. We know Okogie plays against more starting units. We know a large percentage of his time on the court is spent guarding the other teams Allstars, where as Reed Sheppard plays more of his minutes when the opposite is true. I’d argue Josh’s minutes are much more comparable to playoff minutes than Reeds.
I mean, we can attempt to spin results so that poor performances look better and good performances look worse, but that's not exactly an honest thing to do.
Yes, stop doing math immediately. Pretend the 5 guys they’re playing against doesn’t matter at all. The honest approach, I like it.
