Abreu is about as safe a bet as there is in a set up man and he and Hader in the 8th and 9th is a huge advantage. That said, he certainly isn't more valuable than Tucker would have been last year. He is a rental just like Tuck was and will pitch less than 5% of the innings this team plays. Couple that with the fact that there is always a greater than 0% chance that ANY relief pitcher has a down season, and his trade value could be enough to pull the trigger. Remember how down on Hader everyone was this time last year? It's also unlikely but possible that Pearson, De los Santos, Murray, Ullola, Santa, Blubaugh or someone I haven't even thought of pulls an All-Star type season out of his ass completely replacing Abreu's performance.
Not sure where the Tucker comparisons are coming from, I never said that Bryan Abreu has more value than Tucker. I also don't agree with the blanket statement of "5% of the innings." If Abreu is one of the best firemen relievers in the game, that means he is coming in at potentially the most crucial inflection point of the game. If we're up 3-2 and runners on 1st and 2nd with one out in the 7th, and he gets out of that inning, and we are still up 3-2, I am not thinking to myself "big whoop, he just got us two measly outs." My overall point is that if a team is serious about contending and making a playoff run, you need multiple elite RP's. And Bryan Abreu is an elite RP. So we should value Abreu's impact on our team quite high, and only trade him away if we are wowed by an offer. We don't win a World Series without Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressley.
The fact of the matter is, I don't think the Red Sox give a **** about changing their team as much as the Astros do. They are okay with not making this trade and starting the season as is, so they are asking for more than what is necessary to get this trade done. They are trying to call the Astros bluff that they are willing to do the same. A trade with the Red Sox most likely only happens if the Astros throw in a sweetener and not the other way around. For that, I see neither team engaging much longer.
Agreed. The Astros bullpen was the primary reason they over performed as a team the first four months of the season despite the litany of injuries. Having Abreu in the eighth and Hader in the ninth inning is not something to break up if you plan on contending this season. Their September collapse was also primarily due to the bullpen collapsing because of injuries. Things were so dire that the Astros were using Craig Kimbrel and Enyel De Los Santos in high-leverage situations shortly after acquiring them for depth out of necessity.
Yea our 22 Title was won largely on the backs of our pen If you are trying to win it this year you don’t trade him, even more so when you don’t know if Hader will be ok Yea it’s possible one of those guys shows up and dominates, but it’s also WAY more likely that Abreu does I mean it’s possible that Brice Matthews hits 40 HR this year and is more valuable than Yordan, but if I’m Dana I’m not betting my job on it
I think both teams could be pretty ambivalent about making a trade. They both have high ceiling young players that they will be taking spots from by making a trade. For Boston, adding Paredes means less opportunity for Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Robinson, both very highly touted young players; they also have Franklin Arias and Mikey Romero in the minors who could contribute to the infield this season. For Houston, adding an OF means less opportunity for Zach Cole, Cam Smith, Brice Matthews, and Zach Dezenzo; aside from Smith, none of those guys is all that highly rated, but Matthews and Dezenzo have been among Houston’s top 5 prospects at some point in the last 18 months, and Cole carries legit 30/30 potential (albeit with a high bust risk). So I don’t think either team is all that motivated to complete a trade they don’t feel highly confident will improve their team significantly.
The Tucker Comparison is coming from him being a rental just like Kyle was last year. If the Astros could trade Kyle last year, they sure as hell can trade Abreu this year. Especially since they aren't going to give him a Q O. so he walks away without compensation next year. Abreu is great, but anyone who pitches less than 5% of the innings in a season can't be untouchable.
Same reason we should want to keep Paredes. Imagine needing a pinch hitter in the 8th an you have him, or Walker, or Correa available to pinch hit instead of Dubon...
I think the odds have been <10% all off-season. It is hard to move a player that fits so well offensively on your team. Play Alvarez at LF, Altuve at 2B, and Paredes at DH. Stick Paredes at 2B when Altuve needs a break, or would be less liable in LF.
Yeah, I think this may be a big part of it. Our IF is stacked with veterans, but our OF is where the future development lies.
There are lots of ways to win. The 2017 team won with basically zero reliable bullpen options by the time they got to the postseason. If you trust other guys in the pen or even if you don't but upgrade elsewhere enough, the tradeoff isn't necessarily a negative. Even moreso if you can get players with multiple years of control - trading guys with 1 year left for guys with 3-4 years left is the only way to sustain when you have the payroll constraints the Astros have. 8th inning bullpen guys are probably the easiest thing to trade for during the season if you don't find anyone reliable on your own staff. The Astros lost 13 games in September - they didn't score more than 4 runs in any of them. In 5 of those, they gave up 4 or fewer runs. They also went 11-0 when they scored 5 or more runs. I think people forgot that the putrid offense was their biggest problem last year, even when some key players started coming back in September. In the disastrous 5 game losing streak in the last week of the season, all 5 losses went to the Astros' starters. The bullpen, in total, only recorded 2 losses in the 13 games the Astros lost in September - the rest were on the starters. That means the Astros got behind early and never tied it again.
The thought of Espada trying to figure out how to get a game to Hader makes me nauseous. Hader’s elbow or shoulder would be blown out by May 1.
As an alternative to trading Paredes and adding an OF, maybe just dump Walker for whatever salary you can shed then trading Abreu for prospects and using the available payroll to sign desperate free agent pitching? Giolito and Verlander are still out there, as are a handful of good RP.
I can foresee this leading back to a time when we were clamoring for Abreu at 1B. I don’t think it is wise to dismiss Walker.
All depends on what Crane has ACTUALLY told Dana, which none of us know If Dana knows he has to stay under the tax unless it is for a "special" player that Crane will approve, then moving Walker is far and away the easiest path to creating some space to add pieces where needed If, on the other hand, Dana knows that Crane would prefer to stay under the tax, but he is willing to go into it if Dana finds some smaller deals that he feels really gives us a better chance to win it all, and he thinks that the loss of draft picks and international money is worth it, then i'd agree we are better off keeping Walker. Walker certainly was a viable player in the 2H last year and likely will be again this year. Just so many unknowns for all of us here as it pertains to spending Two other big things to consider though when considering Walker and the extra infielder in general, in my opinion 1. What Josh Reddick was talking about a couple of weeks ago on a podcast regarding players not wanting to have to sit too much. It was dismissed by most because "we don't know that Reddick knows anything about the Astros plans" which is true...BUT...he does know the inside of a locker room, and I think there is something to what he was saying. Correa, Altuve, Walker might not mind getting a day off every week so that everyone can be worked in regularly, those guys have had their biggest pay day already and are set for life. But for guys like Pena and Paredes, too many days off = losing out on a chance at a big pay day. Sure guys get hurt and that opens up playing time. But if you are Pena and everyone is healthy and you got a day off last week, then this week you are on the bench again, there is a good chance that isn't going to go over really well. Paredes would be in the same boat. It's just better to have guys with roles, and utility man is a specific role that a guy like Paredes probably wouldn't be happy being in if it means sitting a game every week which will hurt him in arbitration in the future 2. IF that isn't an issue at all, IF both Pena and Paredes say i'm not worried about my future earnings, I just want what's best for the team and gives us the best chance to win...I have zero trust that Joe Espada is the one to successfully implement the plan on a daily basis
He loves the opt outs but it seems like he's aging himself out of the opt outs. The signing bonus is a great way to boost year 1 salary.
I don't like 5 years for him but it's better than 7+. Baseball really needs to put a cap on years (4 to 5 years max) on any contract. Keep the players hustling and not settling for retirement in their 20s.
Good for him, but I don't think there's a good player that I would trust less with long term money than Bellinger.
