It really comes down to the financial cost being minimal and his ability to defend well and handle pitchers. I used to not really view having a guy like that back them being important, but I have had too many coaches - including more modern coaches say it matters. He will help the pitching staff a lot when he isn't catching, he will do game planning etc.
I don't disagree that a quality defensive catcher can greatly help pitchers.... my only problem is that a .500 OPS catcher helps pitchers on both teams, often in equal measure.
Comparing Wilyer Abreu and Isaac Paredes: Their total value over the last 2 seasons is very close. Abreu is a very good defensive player in RF and fully capable of playing CF, whereas Paredes is a pretty mediocre defender and limited to the corner infield. Abreu is on a league minimum salary for 2026 followed by 3 years of arbitration control. Paredes is set to make ~$9M in 2026 before one more year of arbitration in 2027. Paredes is an extremely unique hitter with poor bat speed and limited power, but who is extremely patient, rarely chases, rarely whiffs, sees a lot of pitches, and hits a lot of extra base hits to LF; that makes him uniquely suited for Boston and Houston. Abreu is a more traditional hitter with good bat speed and power but can be prone to chasing and striking out. Abreu pulls a lot of balls to RF so his spray chart is kind of the opposite of Paredes from that perspective.
There are some that still believe that Abreu is a platoon bat. I personally don't think so, but there are some numbers that to substantiate that somewhat. Abreu is at a position the Astros need - Paredes is at a position that the Red Sox need. It would seem pretty simple of a trade, but both sides are claiming their guy is worth more than a straight swap. I know a lot of fans won't agree with me, but I would actually deal Paredes straight up for Abreu. The Astros would save money.... that could be used now or the deadline.... the Astros could then stick Abreu in CF and move Meyers or possible make him a 4th outfielder, where he would be best suited. An outfield of Abreu, Smith and Cole would be elite defensively. Also adding Abreu potentially gives you a really young outfield with upside. Meyers should bring a good prospect or reliever in trade and that clears up even more money.
Why do I get the feeling this trade will be revisited at the trade deadline, with both sides being happy with seeing what they have?
I wouldn’t hate a straight up swap but I don’t think that is a very good outcome for the Astros. Abreu isn’t light years better than Jesus Sanchez and above average corner OF bats are way less valuable than 3B with elite plate discipline with a spray chart custom made for your home park.
I think it is a poor decision to move a player made for the Crawford boxes for a player that could be Jake Meyers if that bat regresses.
Cracks me up that some Boston news outlets think the trade is Paredes and Bryan Abreu for Duran. LOL. Never would happen "A report suggests that the Red Sox and Astros are negotiating a trade involving Isaac Paredes and Jarren Duran. Under this proposed deal, Boston would acquire Paredes and Bryan Abreu, while Houston would add Duran to its lineup for the next season."
I actually think this is realistic if the Astros feel like they are in a big place of need, or if they value Duran more highly than we think. We have no idea what happens behind the scenes. if the Astros really believe that Alvarez needs to be the primary DH and Altuve needs to go back to 2B full-time, this move would make a lot of sense. if this happens, I believe the Astros have to move one of their outfield guys for another pitcher.
There are still a good number of free agent RP who could backfill Abreu; they probably won’t be as good but they will only cost a few million bucks. Michael Kopech, Taylor Rogers, Seranthony Dominguez. I would probably be ok with Paredes and Abreu for Duran if Boston tossed in a decent prospect (somebody ranked in the top ~15 of their org list).
Yeah, I lean more toward a trade because they would be blocking Cam, Cole, Dezenzo. Duran Meyers Sanchez Cam Cole Dezenzo Unless they want to give Alvarez zero LF time, one or two of those would need to be sent to AAA. Feels like a waste.
I kind of consider a trade of either Sanchez or Meyers this week a foregone conclusion. So the starting OF would be Abreu/Duran, Meyers/Sanchez, and Cole. Smith would be in AAA. Dezenzo would be the 4th OF (and primary backup at 1B). Smith going to AAA to start the season isn’t a waste because it buys another year of control, which could be worth $40M+ if he ends up hitting his ceiling.
It sure feels like Cole is trending toward being the primary CF. If all this happens I think the Astros go more traditional and place Duran as the everyday LF, Cole as the everyday CF, and let Cam/Sanchez battle for RF. (I think they move Meyers.)
Assuming they trade Paredes for Abreu or Duran and Meyers for prospects, here’s how I would project the position player roster and playing time: Pena SS 150g Correa 3B 150g Alvarez DH 120g, LF 30g Abreu/Duran RF 110g, CF 40g Walker 1B 150g Altuve 2B 100g, DH 30g, LF 10g Cole CF 100g, RF 40g Diaz C 120g Sanchez LF 110g, DH 12g Matthews 2B 50g, CF 12g, RF 12g, LF 12g, pinch hitter, pinch runner Vazquez C 42g, 1B 12g Allen 2B 12g, SS 12g, 3B 12g, pinch running, late game defensive replacement Cesar Salazar 13th man emergency 3rd C and assisting with game planning
I agree a lot with the spread. However, I don’t think I see a world in which Cam Smith gets zero starts, unless he is traded, which I think is extremely unlikely. I also don’t think Salazar will accept a AAA assignment.
If he’s not claimed on waivers then Salazar will not have a choice but to accept his assignment. I think you are underestimating the value of sending Smith down to get that extra year of control. Getting a 7th year of him could be an enormous value.
