Tari is a defensive playmaker and a much better point of attack defender against smaller players than Jabari. Tari is also significantly better at driving and finishing than Jabari - he's not someone I'd want to give the ball to iso on a regular basis, but he can usually manage something 1-2 times a game even when there's a little bit of defensive pressure. He's also bouncier and plays bigger than his size (likely due to his 7+ ft wingspan and hands). Jabari is a catch and shoot (and occasionally catch and drive) player only - his iso attempts are almost always turnovers. He also isn't a defensive playmaker - he's more like a solid piece of a team defense concept (which is valuable). Finally, he lacks explosiveness and plays much smaller than his size (he didn't get measured during his draft, so no idea what his actual wingspan or hand size is). There's some duplication in that they're both forwards and will probably end up having similar 3pt shooting by end of the year, but I see them playing significantly different roles.
Why they lost in the first round as a second seed and the West is better this year? I think they end up around the 3rd or 4th seed, but lose in the first round. that’s not unreasonable at all.
Tari is a 37% shooter from 3 from his career. I expect regression, but he was looking like a 35% shooter before this season. I'd guess he'll shoot closer to 36.5% going forward the rest of the season (slightly less than career average as he's on one hell of a hot streak). That isn't an unreasonable outcome. It is probably as likely as the Rockets winning one or 2 series, though. I wouldn't go all in on this team, but I would not give up on it either.
I don't like Jabari on the court with Eason - and Jabari gets a lot of minutes. I should be more clear, I don't think that Jabari and Tari are clones or close to it - but I do believe that Smith takes time from Eason, and I don't like Eason and Smith on the floor together. Eason has shot the 3 well this year in the games he has been healthy, but I don't believe that he is a 40-45% three point shooter. I think that he is a 35% three point shooter..... and when you have Sengun shooting 30% from 3, and Thompson shooting 20% from 3 and Jabari shooting 35%.... it makes it hard to also play Eason a lot. If the Rockets decide to move Jabari, then I would feel more comfortable with Eason out there. I see two truely good volume three point shooters on the Rockets roster - KD, who is having an off year from 3, and Reed Sheppard, who goes into his shell as often as not.... I personally think Jabari Smith needs to be moved - but I don't think they will do that, I think it will be Eason that they trade.
Tari Eason shot 34% from 3 last season.... and coming into this season has shot 34%, 36% and 34%. It is possible that Eason has just gotten better from there (not 45% good - but maybe 37-38%).... and that would be a nice improvement for a good player.
The problem with keeping Tari is he has pretty much proven, as much as a player can, that he's injury-prone at this point. I don't trust him to stay on the court, especially if we're expecting him to start in place of Jabari and play heavy minutes. If we have to choose between them, that's what sways me toward Jabari. Maybe both should be traded for an upgrade at the 3/4 spot though.
It’s a possible outcome, but not the most likely one. And calling them a “mediocre first round exit team” is hyperbole. And play in or lottery is extremely unlikely. They are better than last year, likely will win more games (even if a lower seed, which I’m not yet sure about). And this year they have a real closer and aren’t relying on out hustling everyone just to get regular season wins. If anything, they are the opposite - being lackadaisical against mediocre teams. Again, 2nd best net rating in the west, which is the best predictor of future success … despite one of the hardest and most road heavy schedules while incorporating a ball dominant superstar. I get the concern, but this doomsday stuff is silly.
Yeah, I'm not as wild about Jabari ceiling at this point and prefer Eason's minutes to Jabari's, but availability is a skill and Tari has missed nearly 40% of his games to this point in Houston and DFS has not demonstrated he can remain healthy yet either so it becomes difficult to move on from Jabari as the lesser 3 and D wing player...and by the way - I think Jabari is going to be a fine role player in time...but undoubtedly Eason makes way more things happen on both sides of the ball than Bari does today. I agree with your assessment - it's likely Tari to be moved, but that's more about risk mitigation strategies than who the better player is.
I don't understand this logic, but I see it all the time. "Player X has now dropped to his lowest value, via injury or underperformance, therefore it's time to trade him right now." Surely that's exactly when you don't trade a player? The FO's job is to buy low and sell high, not the other way around. A stronger argument would be that the FO should've traded Tari a year ago when his brand was strong. Right noow he's a very good player with a weak brand, which is when you hold.
Unless they get a top-3 seed they will have to play one of OKC, Denver, San Antonio, or Minnesota in the first round. The Rockets aren't going to be favored going into any of these matchups. Especially not against SA/Denver/OKC. Against Minnesota it's probably a toss up at best. It's not doomsday to say the Rockets can easily be bounced in the 1st round. If they don't clearly improve from now till the end of the season, 1st round exit is a very reasonable outcome.
Jabari is on a poison pill year .... makes it very difficult to move him, though it can be done if the $$ is large enough. Tari still being on a rookie deal limits the value you can get in return but his availability has to come into question. They could put this decision off until the offseason rather than make it in the next few weeks. I dunno which way I'd go, you'd sure like to keep both but finances might dictate otherwise.
I don't disagree, I was just speaking to the idea of choosing between him and Jabari as a long term piece of the core. I don't think we necessarily have to decide right now on that, if at all.
I really liked Ayo in the draft that year and would have taken him @24 or 25 over Garuba or Christopher. He has 50/40/90 potential as a shooter and is a decent defender but is more a secondary ball handler than a primary one - I think a deal for him is more a future move than a right now move. One I would make if all it cost was Capela and minor draft considerations.
I feel like we could use a shooting guard, a point guard, and a rim protector. But the front office has so much invested in players that don’t fit, I’m not sure they know how to build for fit yet. I feel like that still something Stone has to prove he can do.
If they trade Eason , they should go after young player, as well as vet. 2 for 1 deal with rockets adding picks etc... If they need DFS and Capela salary to get it done then fine , but better get a defensive center back in it ..
