Reed Sheppard is the Rockets’ Franchise Player™

On the bright side, there were times in yesterday’s game where the guys were moving all over the half court. The spacing was much better when the double bigs were off the court. I actually spotted a number of back screens. Maybe being at home is helping them to develop a little better chemistry. We desperately need Jabari, Reed, Tari, and Durant to shoot more 3’s and make them. We are not going to beat the elite teams with a steady diet of Durant middies. Sometimes injuries force Ime’s hand for the betterment of the team. Surely with Adams injury we will move away from the double bigs and our putrid version of zone defense. Any news on Tari’s return? He may very well be on the trade block.

 

Funny thing is that double bigs and the brief no bigs lineup were by far the best lineups for the Rockets yesterday. The spacing has been killing double big lineups lately (spacing has been a concern with most lineups over that time period as the Rockets are short on shooters), but yesterday is not the day to complain about the double bigs as the Pelicans don't have good interior defense. I did not notice the spacing getting better with the double bigs off the court as the Pelicans interior defense kind of sucked regardless of who was on the court for the Rockets.

Long term, I feel more confident in the no bigs (and single big) lineups than the double bigs, but I always find it odd that whether the double bigs are effective or not, you act like it wasn't. Short term, the no bigs lineups need more consistency.

 

The foundation needs to be 2-3 pieces. Dallas should have never broke up the Nash-Dirk combination. Kareem-Magic combo is unrealistic.

 

we were up by 16 in the 4th and he's riding pine.

we wasted all last year to get his rookie mistakes out, now he's being punished for the gametime he didn't get last year. monumental failure of development.

 

Kidd and Dirk were the next best thing and Kidd did win him one.

Always found that Kidd had the size and strength advantage over Nash and defensively.

Kidd did transition from a highlight reel magician to a serious shooter over that course.

Spoiler

 

Reed still makes lots of mistakes on offense not because he doesn't know the right play but because he's still too timid against NBA size and speed.

One play he was pulling up for a midrange shot. Then he saw a defender closing out and he changed his mind midair. It ended up gifting the opponent an uncontested fast break. If he had Amen's size and athleticism, he might be able to get away with changing mind midair. (I mean even Amen gets into trouble doing that kind of thing from time to time.) When you make up your mind to shoot, just shoot it. Don't be scared of being blocked.

 

Reed gets yanked when he dicks around on offense and/or defense. He needed to get yanked. This team in general doesn't value possessions and Reed is the biggest culprit on the team. It's not his fault because he's still essentially a rookie and the other players not valuing possessions coughSenguncoughAmencough is way more damning but he needs to learn to value possessions.

 

Cliffs Notes:

- When Reed isn't scoring he's a negative player BUT the stats show the Rockets are actually worse defensively with him off the floor than on.
- Teams that intend to scheme with him in mind on defense do so effectively
- Very few matchups in the West that are favorable to him not getting devoured by opposing guards (only Mike Conley....maybe Harrison Barnes)
- Ayo Dosunmu a potential get for insurance is something that should be explored

 

I think Reed's defensive liability is overblown. It has become a narrative. Kind of similar to Sengun's defense becoming a narrative that will not change people's opinion no matter what the facts are.

Is Reed a good defender? No. Can we sustain a good defense with him on the floor? Absolutely. Read Will's report card analysis. He is not consistently good, but he has learned and has improved.

I think his timidity on offense is a more important thing to fix for him to be a positive impact player.

 

I think it's mostly pushed by those who go exclusively on vibes and eye test who don't care what is actually happening on the court.

There's times he gets beat and it looks really bad, so those types overreact to it. Unfortunately, Ime Udoka is one of those types.

 

I listended to it and I thought is was a little more balanced than this and pretty fair. Vecenie gave more players Reed could match up with (Champagnie, Podz, etc) but pointed out the concern is that teams that want to scheme to exploit him seem to be able to do it, with OKC as the best example, and that this is a potential concern that teams will be more intentional about exploiting him in the playoffs. He also couched some of it as "is Ime going to accept that?"

And when he talked about Dosunmu he mentioned that he's a guy who could play with Reed so you aren't fully abandoning the Reed Sheppard project.

I'm still bullish overall on Reed but I'd probably do Capela and a first for Dosunmu but haven't really thought about what that means in terms of cap management going forward.

 

I felt similarly.

And regarding the Dosunmu of it all...he's a guy who has admittedly flown under my radar, but after familiarizing myself with him a bit more, I love the fit. Good size (6'3.5" barefoot with a 6'10"+ wingspan), able to handle the ball, and shoots very efficiently (50/39/82 over the last three seasons). The only real downside I see is that he's due to become an unrestricted free agent. But in the pursuit of maximizing Durant's remaining potential, I think you kinda have to get what you can get right now and worry about the details later.

 

I haven't watched a ton of Dosunmu. He got on my radar a little when I did a post a couple years ago trying to figure out how many players in the 2021 draft I'd rather have than Jalen and he was sort of a borderline possibility at the end of the list as a productive player who can fill a role but with nowhere close to the upside.

If he had another year at $7 million he'd be much more attractive. I assume there could be convos with his agent to get a ballpark on what it will take to re-sign him. I have almost no idea how to estimate contracts for mid tier players coming into 2026 free agency. If it works with our future cap plans that would make him much more attractive.

 

Reed needs minutes to grow on both sides of the ball. Not many were granted last year.

He gambles a lot and doesn't yet have an full arsenal of tools that he trusts and can perform instinctively.

Might take a while at 18min/gm, unfortunately.

 

The Rox defense rises with him cuz Ime pairs him with elite defenders to compensate. For example he is paired with either Okogie or Amen and KD unless Ime is really desp for shooting and plays him and Holiday at the same time.

Right now he is a defensive liability against the top teams and according to them Reed was personally responsible for 14 pts when OKC built that lead over the Rox since Ajay Mitchell and JDub were getting free pts from him every possession.

Personally I think as long as he shoots over 40% on more than 6 attempts its fine esp sunce we need spacers to help out KD, Sengun and Amen. 3 is better than 2. Like in the Minny game yeah he wasnt good defensively but he shot like 3 threes in 1 quarter to help Rox catch up. Steph Curry also doesnt stop anyone on D besides JG in the playoffs.

 

Agree that the defensive stats "look" better because Ime gives Reed their best defensive team but I think to Sam's point - he needs to shoot 40%+ fairly consistently to be playable and anything less than that or any hiding in a corner or not getting him the ball means his minutes overall end up being a loss. To offset his defensive issues he has to be either actively shooting and hitting 3s or creating assists to make his overall minutes a plus. He quickly becomes a liability in any other scenario(Durant wants to play one on one while Reed is out there, Reed is having a good but not great shooting night, etc.)

 

Kevin Durant is playing 37 minutes a night, and Amen Thompson is playing 37 minutes a night.

Those two guys are second and third in the entire NBA in minutes a game.

So yes - Reed Sheppard is going to play a lot of minutes with them, especially considering he plays a different position.

Accordingly, no - I don't think that Ime Udoka goes out of his way to play Sheppard with the best defenders.

FWIW Udoka has said the same in the past.

I don't think that Reed Sheppard will ever be a star defender, but I also think that a lot of the criticism isn't justified and is assumed based on his size.

There are times that Sheppard struggles on defense, but it isn't across the board - it is very match up specific, as the quality of defender that Sheppard is, depends on whom he is defending. In some matchups he is a good defender.

Are there match ups that teams will try to exploit Reed Sheppard in? Yes, but that is the case with Sengun and Jabari Smith as well. Unless your team has 5 long and very good defenders, there will be teams that try to exploit them. Teams even tried to exploit SGA but it didn't matter because he dropped 30-35 points.

Reed Sheppard is approaching a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio, which is by far the best on the team. He has a better steal/block rate than Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Alpren Sengun and Jabari Smith. He has the second best assist rate behind Sengun. His EFG% is basically the same as Durant's.

The issue with Reed Sheppard is really simple - he needs to take open shots on the perimeter and make them, when he does that, he shoots well from mid range and even under the basket. He has been inconsistent with his perimeter shot and at times is timid.

I appreciate that Udoka is giving him 25 minutes a game - but he hasn't really handled him all that well.

As for teams being able to stop Reed when they scheme for him - yeah, that is true and isn't a surprise. Most players can be limited when a team makes stopping him a priority. The Rockets have other weapons though, and a team can only scheme for a couple players.... so they have to pick their poison.

 

Reed is fine on defense, sure it is unorthodox, and he will be beaten, just like everyone else, but he will also get more steals and blocks, he needs to learn how to take a charge for his final defensive lesson.

He has to be allowed to play through that and let it fly, he should be shooting 10+ threes a game.....period.


DD

 

Great write up, agree completely .

 

Sheppard targeted on D, is kinda simple. Its because Rockets other defenders are too good to go at

Sheppard is a victim of his team's own defensive strength. Who ELSE on the Rockets can a team go even at?

Rockets have so many plus-defenders, teams have no choice but going at the worst defender on court

But it doesn't mean Sheppard is bad. He's acceptably mid in a lot of systems. Its just magnified when he's isolated