The rumor mill says that the Red Sox are open to trading Connelly Early (2.33 ERA and 1.086 WHIP with a 29/4 K/BB ratio in 19.1 IP) and 29 year old Jarren Duran (8.7 WAR in 2024 and 4.7 WAR in 2025). Why would any team give up on a promising 23 year old starting pitcher? or a 5.0 WAR position player with three more years of control? It just does not make any sense.
I don’t think it’s a matter of giving up on them, it’s more just knowing they are going to have to give up value to get value, and they have a surplus of lefty OF and pitching prospects. Same logic behind Houston potentially trading Paredes. Paredes and 1-2 prospects or high upside young players for Duran and Early would be a great deal for the Astros. Based on the rumor mill I would adjust my earlier hypothetical to look like: Astros get: OF Jarren Duran P Connelly Early Red Sox get: 3B Isaac Paredes OF Cam Smith Astros opening day roster: LF Duran SS Pena DH Alvarez 3B Correa 2B Altuve 1B Walker RF Sanchez C Diaz CF Meyers Bench: Matthews, Salazar, Allen, Cole SP: Brown, Imai, Javier, Burrows, Weiss, McCullers RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Okert, Pearson, Munoz, De Los Santos Optioned: Early, Arrighetti, Blubaugh, Ullola, Gordon, France, Alexander, Murray, Sousa, Dezenzo, Whitcomb IL: Wesneski, Blanco, Walter
It is true that there can't be 2 DH only players on a team. The solution here is to trade one of them. My preference is to trade Alvarez. He has value to most any team, Altuve has value to the Astros but not so much to any other team.
Altuve simply can't and won't be traded. It's not even worth talking about. So Alvarez. . . Teams who are trying to win do not trade impact players (unless they are rentals which is also fairly rare) There is no realistic scenario where the 2026 Astros are better without Yordan than with him. He is signed at a reasonable amount for 3 more seasons. And due to injury, his value is currently down so you would be selling low on him as well. Fangraphs projects him to be the 4th best hitter in MLB (Behind Judge, Soto, and Ohtani) in 2026. It is much much better to simply put him in LF or put Altuve at 2B and accept those poor results than trade Yordan. Trading him would likely be among the worst trades the Astros ever made regardless of who they get in return. My estimate is: 65% catastrophic terrible deal that instantly ends any chances to contend in the very near future. Possibly requiring a complete rebuild. 25% chance the team is worse in 2026 but has promise moving forward 10% chance the team has different composition but about the same expected results.
I disagree with two of your points and your percentages. I don’t really think you are selling low. For the same reasons you say the team would definitely get worse without him the other team would be betting that they would be better off. We would get an absolute haul for Alvarez, because of his 3 year’s more at a very affordable contract. You can’t say it would be a terrible trade no matter who they got in return. Like most trades the true winner of the trade is not determined for a few years, especially if prospects are involved. I, also look at it from a full roster perspective. What is the net effect on the batting order and the net effect on the defense and/or pitching staff. Certainly we wouldn’t be getting a better hitter in return (if injury is not factored in), but if we get two starters out of the trade the net difference in offensive production for the whole lineup could be a wash or even a net gain. If one of the returning pieces was a net positive hitter for a position of need and a ToR pitcher the net difference in overall run differential could also be a net positive. The move also solves the Altuve dilemma which is not going away. He has 4 more years on his contract and is not going anywhere. He replaces a lot of the HR power you would lose from Alvarez and eliminates two poor fielders from the equation. I don’t know for a fact that Paredes will be a better 2b than Altuve, but I think it is likely. It is also very likely that LF will be manned by someone better in the field than Altuve or Alvarez. I’m not saying we should trade Alvarez, but saying we lose the trade no matter what (especially with Alvarez injury history) is conjecture. It really depends on what you get in return. The other factor is similar to the Rockets conundrum with Tari Eason. We don’t know what the Astros know from a physical standpoint and that has to factor into the equation on whether to trade or not. Just ignoring how much time Alvarez misses doesn’t seem reasonable to me.
I acknowledge Yordan would bring back a haul. But I still think if he was coming off of a 40 HR, .950 OPS season he would bring back more. Definition of selling low. And by losing Yordan any upgrade somewhere else would have to counter what you lose from Yordan. Any team that trades for Yordan will want to compete. They will want to trade away prospects and not players who could help them win in 2026. I stand by my even at best.
I am actually thinking between the 2, Wilyer Abreu is a better option than Jarren Duran. He is 3 years younger, players better defense, has 1 more year of control, and projects to be much cheaper. I figure Duran has about $43M in surplus value (10 WAR and $37M salary in 3 yrs) and Abreu has about $35M (8 WAR and $29M salary in 4 yrs) I have Paredes at $16M (5 WAR and $24M salary in 2 yrs) In my mind any Abreu for Paredes deal would need to have 2 additional prospects/players going to the Red Sox. They need starting pitching depth and lefty bullpen help and probably want players ready for MLB for very close because they want to compete in 2026. It's tough to see a deal that doesn't weaken the Astros pitching so it may not work
They consider Early less risky than Tolle, but more of a sure thing to be a mid rotation guy where Tolle has more upside They got burned on Bregman and will likely be willing to over pay for the right guy. Who the right guy is I have no idea
One last stab before it potentially goes down: Astros get: OF Wilyer Abreu P Peyton Tolle P Jordan Hicks $7M (2026), $7.5M (2027) Red Sox get: 3B Isaac Paredes P Bryan Abreu Astros swap hitters for fit, but Abreu comes with 2 add’l years of control. They also get a Top 50 pitching prospect. They swap Abreu for Hicks to even things out. Opening day roster: SS Pena 2B Altuve DH Alvarez 3B Correa RF Abreu 1B Walker C Diaz LF Sanchez CF Meyers Bench: Matthews, Cole, Caratini, Allen SP: Brown, Imai, Javier, Burrows, Weiss, McCullers RP: Hader, Hicks, King, Pearson, Okert, Munoz, Sousa Optioned: Arrighetti, Blubaugh, Tolle, Gordon, France, Ullola, Alexander, Murray, Sousa, Dezenzo, Whitcomb, Smith IL: Walter, Wesneski, Blanco DFA: Salazar, De Los Santos
That would be extremely risky in my opinion. Don't get me wrong i'd love to get Tolle But I don't think we can afford to lose Abreu if we are trying to contend. Not only is he one of the best 2-3 set up men in baseball, but we have a closer who is a HUGE ???? coming into the season. We trade Abreu and Hader is not right, we would be cooked
Understand your point but with Arrighetti, Tolle, Ullola, Blubaugh, and Pecko all in AAA I think backfilling Abreu won’t be a major issue even if Hicks sucked. All 5 of those guys would have elite potential as RP. And even if none of those guys panned out they’d have the deadline to go get a setup man.
Understand, just not how I would go about it One of our two Championships was won in large part because we had a shutdown bullpen. Hell i'd be willing to move Hader before I'd move Abreu, at least moving Hader would give me salary space below the tax to go get help at the deadline if those other guys didn't prove to be dominant backend types. If we traded Abreu and needed a stud for the back of the pen at the deadline, I don't think Crane would go into the tax for a bullpen guy. His history is more accepting going into the tax for bigger names
I actually think the Astros are very nicely set up (no pun intended) in leverage relief. One of the primary characteristics of relief pitchers is inconsistency. The less you rely on a single reliever the better IMO. Having Hicks, Pearson, Murray, De Los Santos, along with potentially Blubaugh, Ullola, Santa etc all as RH options to go along with the 4 lefties could make up for losing Abreu.
For 2026, I think this weakens out batting quite signicantly, if Cam returns to 1st half form. With Altuve locked into 2B until he retires, I like this trade with: Matthews Paredes Early Duran
LOL, ok But Abreu has been extremely consistent and I much prefer someone who I know is very likely to get the job done vs someone who is very inconsistent, but COULD get it done To each their own I suppose
Disagree on this Yes, he had a bad 3 out of 4 games stretch after Hader went down, then he finished up strong. If Abreu was the closer because Hader was still not healthy, i'd feel good about him
You can not have it both ways. Alvarez can not be both worthless in trade and too valuable to trade. He still has value to trade but he is probably one injury away from useless
