[Official] Astros Offseason

IMO the Astros would need to include multiple prospects in a Paredes deal for both of them.

For Duran a top 5 and a top 10

For Abreu a top 7-8 and a top 15.

 

If true this means were likely overvaluing paredes.

 

You aren't finding another catcher in that scenario

Crane isn't going to agree to go into the tax for a backup catcher. If you keep everyone as is, there are no small moves to be made, we have no room under the tax. It would be go big where Crane approves, or what you have is what you have

 

Most people just look at war, ops, whatever number they like

Very few care about the "quality" of the at bat guys give anymore. I agree with you. We need MORE guys who give a quality at bat, not less

 

There is no way I would include a prospect along with Paredes for Abreu. Paredes is a better player than Abreu

Duran is a different story, he has more upside, is controlled for 3 more seasons, and the fact that he is older could actually help you keep him when he reaches free agency

Having said that, if they wanted a top 5 and a top 10 along with Paredes, they can go kick rocks

 

WAR to me is like new math. Doesn't pass the eye test

 

Duran has higher value than Abreu.

 

I don’t think they would for Abreu.

 

Is Duran really that much better than Parades?

 

Different players.

Duran has 3 years if control, Paredes has 2.

Duran plays OF, Paredes plays INF.

Duran hits lefty, Paredes hits righty.

Duran hits triples and hustle doubles and steals bases, Paredes pulls homeruns.

Duran meets the Astros' needs and Paredes plays positions already filled by other players.

 

I get this and I like Duran a lot.

But they're production is about the same and defensively they're about the same. finding a 3B that's as productive as Parades is harder to find than an OF with the production that Duran gives you IMHO. Is the extra yr of Duran really worth that much?

 

Except they have Correa.

Duran > Paredes on this roster

That said, I'm not sure Duran is worth what Boston is asking.

 

Duran would be a nice add. Until Correa gets hurt, which is a high likelihood. Then we'll wish we hadn't traded Paredes. I'd be fine keeping Paredes.

 

Duran was nearly a 9 WAR player in 2024 and had about 5 WAR last year in a year many Boston fans considered a “down year”.

Im not sure how I’d feel about trading Paredes as part of a package to get Duran- as I think Paredes is a perfect fit in the Astros lineup and ballpark. I’ll also add that if they were to trade Paredes they better get a better utility option off the bench than Nick Allen.

 

And they have an abundance of OF and need a 3B

On their roster, Paredes>Duran

In NO WAY do I want us to trade Paredes, but this one makes so much sense it will never happen

 

This is why i'm so adamant we need to move Walker's salary

We need a utility in a bad way, and we also need a backup catcher

A healthy Yordan will obviously go a long way in making the offense better

But I don't think most people realize how much we will miss Caratini and Dubon, those two combined for 713 at bats last year and gave us 19 HR and 79 RBI. And before anyone craps on those numbers, I know RBI isn't a predictive stat, but it's production that would have to be made up just to break even with what we did last year. Right now those two spots would be Salazar and Nick Allen. Salazar has a .586 career OPS (small sample) and Allen has a .538 OPS in over a thousand at bats. We badly need to upgrade those two spots somehow

 

Swapping Paredes and Duran or Abreu could clear some payroll especially if Houston includes enough to get Boston to eat some salary. Also, adding Duran or Abreu makes Sanchez and/or Meyers more expendable which would clear additional money. I think if Houston could effectively swap out Paredes and Sanchez for Duran/Abreu, Caratini, and a good prospect it would be a great deal for Houston.

 

I thought that the Red Sox needed a 3B to replace Bregman.

 

Age 27 year old, 8.7 WAR.
Age 28 year old, 4.7 WAR.

Peak Jarren Duran may have passed.

 

I misunderstood you. I inferred that you thought it takes a lesser player to move a team from wildcard to division, as compared to moving a team from division winner to title champ.