Yep, in Meyers, Smith, Sanchez, Cole, Matthews, and Dezenzo they have 6 guys who could be really good but who all project to be average to below average. Dana Brown’s biggest evaluation this spring will be deciding which guys to put on the roster and it’ll be up to Espada to play them in a way that maximizes their output.
Baseball America: Astros preseason top 30 prospects This list will probably be different from the top 30 in the Prospect Handbook. Spoiler 1. Xavier Neyens 2. Ethan Frey 3. Brice Matthews 4. A.J. Blubaugh 5. Kevin Alvarez 6. Ethan Pecko 7. Walker Janek 8. Bryce Mayer 9. Ryan Forcucci 10. Miguel Ullola 11. Lucas Spence 12. Zach Cole 13. Joseph Sullivan 14. Anthony Huezo 15. Jackson Nezuh 16. Jase Mitchell 17. Parker Smith 18. Will Bush 19. Jancel Villarroel 20. James Hicks 21. Jose Fleury 22. Nick Monistere 23. Alonzo Tredwell 24. Nick Potter 25. Hudson Leach 26. Cole Hertzler 27. German Ramirez 28. Alimber Santa 29. Anthony Millan 30. Omar Damian
Cole did look better than Matthews in the big leagues - as Matthews had too many non-competitive at bats. One thing I will say for Matthews is that he has had a harsh adjustment period almost every where he has played, and tends to have hot and cold streaks. Matthews also has a very quick bat.
Pretty aggressive ranking for Frey, otherwise nothing seems crazy. Caden Powell and Luis Baez outside the top 30 is interesting.
I am bullish on Frey I realize it was only 122 PAs but his bat showed to be legit. 516 hitters had 100+ PAs in A ball last year. 10th in wRC+ (98th percentile) His exit velicity was 90th percentile of all minor leaguers. To me what makes him stand out over other Astros prospects is that he strikes out less often. His contact rate and zone contact rate were both excellent. His K rate was in the 65th percentile (20.5%) and swinging strike percentage was 96th percentile (6.2%). He did this while still walking 16.4% (87th percentile) His 19.2% chase rate stands out to me. For reference, Isaac Paredes had a 21.4% last year. Good contact while swinging at good pitches is usually a recipe for success. Its very refreshing after warching Brice Matthews, Zach Cole, Jacob Melton, Pedro Leon, etc the past several seasons. I am excited to see him advance to AA this year (hopefully), see how fast he can progress and if he settles in at a corner or stays in CF (I have my doubts)
The Astros made one more minor league free agent signing before the new year: RHP Sam Carlson was signed on December 27. He was one of the most highly-touted high school pitchers to come out of Minnesota in recent memory when he was picked by the Mariners in the 2nd round (55th overall) in 2017. However, Tommy John and the pandemic essentially wiped out four years of his career and he never really lived up to expectations. After leaving the Mariners organization, Carlson spent 2024 with Biloxi (Brewers AA) and 2025 with Oklahoma City (Dodgers AAA). He’s been a reliever for the last three seasons. With OKC last year, he went 4-2 with four saves and a 4.22 ERA in 45 appearances totaling 59.2 IP. That’s his 2nd-highest innings tally as a pro. In those 59.2 innings, Carlson allowed 36 runs (28 earned) on 56 hits (4 HR), walked 36, and struck out 78. Opponents hit .251 off him.
An approximation of a realistic idea of what I currently hope the org top 10 looks like after the next draft: TBD 2026 1st Rd Pick (17): The Astros have a lot of leverage with this pick, having the ability to go overslot if a major prospect falls or understot if they want to add value in their subsequent picks, but either way this should be a borderline Top 100 prospect. SS Xavier Neyens: The hope here is that Neyens gets some FCL games under his belt then reaches Fayetteville and puts up numbers; someone like Theo Gillen is a trajectory he could follow to be a solid Top 100 prospect this time next year. C Walker Janek: He looked good in the fall league will likely start the season in AA. If he puts up good numbers he could be a fringe Top 100 prospect by midseason; someone like Carter Jensen would be a path I'd love to see him chart in terms of development timeline. OF Ethan Frey: He's already on most evaluators radar as a very high ceiling guy, so a monster season would see him getting a lot of love; I'd like to see him replicate Chase DeLauter's High A line from 2023 (.286/.447/.549). TBD 2026 1st Rd Pick (28): This will be a good player; not someone like Neyens or whoever they draft at #17, but a prospect on par with Walker Janek or Brice Matthews or Drew Gilbert, which is great for a player who slots in as the 5th best prospect. OF Kevin Alvarez: The highest ceiling bat in the system, Alvarez likely won't have much chance to move up since he might not even be brought stateside and even if he does, he will probably take a full season in the FCL. But if he can get over here and somehow reach Fayetteville in 2026, he will get a ton of attention. P Alonzo Tredwell: He looked great in AA and could put up a dominant first half that would have evaluators hyping him just before he graduates. TBD 2026 2nd Rd Pick (58): This could be a Jacob Melton or Ethan Frey level prospect. P Ryan Forcucci: He's continued to get hype even though he hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet. If he is able to have a full, healthy, dominant season, he'll end 2026 in AA with loads of hype. OF Joseph Sullivan: His power fell off a cliff when he got to AA but if he gets that back he could be a rich man's Joey Loperfido. Other prospects who could end up on the end of season Top 10: P Bryce Mayer, C/1B Will Bush, OF Luis Baez, P Brett Gillis, 2026 3rd Rd Pick (94).
Yes. Prospects I expect to graduate in 2026: P Ethan Pecko P Miguel Ullola P AJ Blubaugh P Alimber Santa 2B/OF Brice Matthews OF Zach Cole Some of their better pitching prospects (Pecko, Tredwell, Hicks, Leach) will be Rule 5 eligible this fall so if they pitch really well to open the season they could graduate earlier than expected. On the position player side, there’s less risk of that but Will Bush, Luis Baez, Alejandro Nunez, and Jeron Williams will be Rule 5 eligible, among others.
The first minor league free agent signing of 2026 is 3B James Nelson. He's been "assigned" to Corpus (just a formality since, obviously, nothing has started yet). Nelson was drafted by the Marlins in the 15th round of the 2016 draft out of Cisco College, located in the town of the same name that's about 35 minutes east of Abilene on I-20. He had a nice first full pro season in 2017, slashing .309/.354/.456 with 7 home runs and 59 RBI for then-Class A Greensboro, but never came close to replicating those numbers anywhere else. The Marlins traded him to the Yankees in January 2020, where he topped out with a couple games in AA before getting released in 2022. Nelson has been playing in the independent leagues since. He spent the 2025 season with the Charleston Dirty Birds in the Atlantic League, where he slashed .315/.395/.575 with 34 home runs and 98 RBI in 124 games. The name "Dirty Birds" is a reference to the canaries used to detect poisonous gases in West Virginia's coal mines. They used to be the West Virginia Power and were affiliated with the Brewers and Pirates before they got left behind when the minor leagues were restructured.
"Sentinel Species" Here's a mine cage: The classic example is the "canary in the coal mine". The idea of placing a warm-blooded animal in a mine to detect carbon monoxide was first proposed by John Scott Haldane in 1895,[2] and canaries were used as early as 1896.[3][4][5][6] Countries such as Britain, the United States, and Canada used canaries as a sentinel species.[7] Well into the 20th century, coal miners brought canaries into coal mines as an early-warning signal for toxic gases, primarily carbon monoxide.[8] The birds, being more sensitive, would become sick before the miners, who would then have a chance to escape or put on protective respirators. In some cases, the canaries were kept in cages with dedicated oxygen tanks so the birds could survive after their illness provided a warning.[9] "Canary in the coal mine" is now used as an idiom for a person or thing that warns people of danger.[10][11] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel_species
Fangraphs had him as Miami’s #9 prospect way back in 2019. Hard to be too optimistic about a 28 year old sitting in AA but you never know where a gem might be found, plus he’ll be competing for time with guys like Pascanel Ferreras, Narbe Cruz, and Jeron Williams, so…not much to lose. This system is starved for infielders in the upper levels.
Bored so looking at this guy more. As a prospect he never hit more than 7 HR in a season. But he hit 30 HR in the Frontier League then hit 34 HR in the Atlantic League (with 50 SB). So it’s possible he’s shown a massive increase in getting to his raw power. Up until last season he was purely a 3B but in 2025 he split time between 3B and LF. Hopefully Houston thinks he can play 3B. If you want to get excited, read these articles: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/baseball-americas-2025-independent-player-of-the-year/ https://atlanticleague.com/nelson-is-national-player-of-the-year/
I am extremely excited about Ryan Forcucci. I cant seem to find any info on him. Does anyone know if he's gonna be healthy starting the season on time? Or is he still recovering. I think he could be the best pitching prospect we got by the end of the season. Staying healthy of course
He should be healthy this spring. There have been multiple comments about him in articles this offseason that indicate he’s on track. I’m sure he will be on an strict innings limit but otherwise he should be full go.
My guess is Fayetteville. In an ideal realistic world, he’d make 10-15 starts there (40-60 innings) then go to Asheville for 5-8 starts (20-30 innings) then up to Corpus for a handful of appearances until he reached his innings limit.
I like Forcucci a lot too. He is #2 on my current top 30 prospects list. I am in the middle of an update but he probably stays in the top 3 there at least till Spring training.
