The "franchise player" debate has been settled. It's Amen.

It is crazy when you think that people call Harden washed, KD almost washed and Steph no longer a superstar and they're still way up there in impact.

 

Harden has had a weird mid 30s. He had such a big drop in the early 30s that he looked like he was on the verge of being done. Last season and half he's gotten back a little bit of his mojo which is kind of rare. It seems like when guards have a sharp decline as they age, they typically don't bounce back well. KD has been a slow decline. Mostly, I think KD just has had some injuries, but has periods that he's pretty good. He's had a good healthy stretch this season so far. Curry, he's gone from MVP level to 2nd or 3rd All-NBA level.

 

When it comes to the shooting, people are wishcasting. Amen cannot shoot from 3. It is probably >90% certain he will never be a good catch & shoot 3pt shooter. It is definitely >99% certain he will never be a good pull-up 3pt shooter.

We have a 4 year sample of WOAT level perimeter shooting from Amen. We have another 4 year sample of the same from his identical twin. I've watched probably literal hours of Amen shooting workout footage, going back to OTE days. You can watch his touch in his pre-game routine even now. His career percentage on pull up 3PA is 8%.

Nobody close to as bad as Amen as a perimeter shooter, at this point in their career, has ever become a good pull-up 3 shooter.

I also think a lot of fans are a little stuck in the past on this - but in 2025 the truth is, unless your guy is the literal GOAT rim pressure guy (Giannis) with the perfect surrounding team construction, you can't win a championship without your best player being a pull-up 3 pt shooting threat. It's just how the game works now that teams are smarter.

And I love Amen. His role will be Scottie Pippen, not MJ.

 

The same people that think Amen is a max player are the same people who marveled at Westbrick averaging a triple-double. You can't build a team around a guy who, in a best case scenario, is the next Shawn Marion.

 

Yeah, I've said the same thing before. If you want to maximize the team with Amen, you are going to have to surround him with shooters and let him play downhill and kick when defenses collapse just like Giannis. He is obviously not as big as Giannis, but he does similar things efficiency wise on both sides of the ball to Giannis at the same age of their career - the biggest difference being Giannis had more usage as a primary on his team because he wasn't splitting usage with a HOF scorer.

 

Thats why he gets all those lobs nobody seems to be interested in guarding him.

 

Amen is shooting 80% from ft though, up from 60% or whatever his career percentage was before. Dont people say fts are a good indicator of 3 pt shooting?

Its rare but theres been guys that developed 3s late in their career like Al Horford or Jason Kidd.

 

If Reed was playing well during Bari's slump, then maybe Ime would try it. I still think it needs to be tried though.

 

I disagree making Tari the PF limits him because at 6'6 he is plus sized at SG and undersized at PF. He is also injury prone why put him at more physical position? He got banged up after he got hit by Jrue Holiday ass and you want him at PF lol

 

He’s not Marion. Marion didn’t have elite dribble drive ability. Amen is in a class of his own. Enigma really. Elite explosiveness and ability to get to the paint. Has playmaking ability. Elite defense. Just can’t shoot beyond 10 ft. Westbrook was also unique. Could do everything but not a great shooter. One thing Westbrook had was 15 ft mid range. That put another layer in his offense and he didn’t always have to go to the rim. Amen doesn’t have that and everything is at the rim or 5-8 ft most of the time.

But I agree. You can’t win with him as a major part of your starting unit. Enigmatic player. Good but not enough to be a star or high usage player

 

Rondo and don’t forget brook lopez

 

They do guard him. They just don’t guard him at the 3 pt line or when he’s in the corner and ball is strong side. When he gets the ball trying to drive from the wings they guard him about 16-18 ft out

 

KD has been a PF for years. He was the 4 in GS in 2017. He played 60-70% of his mins as PF. He actually played center more than SF in playoffs on average. And Zaza barely played in the playoffs as Draymond was the center. When Looney developed he started playing more SF but it was still split 50/50 for forward spots in 2018 and 2019

In Brooklyn he rarely played SF. He was a PF and C like Giannis plays. Over 70% of his Brooklyn minutes were at PF and most the rest at C.

 

I know that. But did you know KD is 37? And has started missing significant no of games since his Brooklyn days? Tell me why you want a guy like that banging for rebounds and being physical at the PF position?

Basically KD and Tari are too injury prone shouldnt be played at the PF spot unless you wanna risk injury and months of absences.

 

Bro the gravity stats dont lie. They use machines and trackers to check who is being guarded and who isnt.

 

Agreed, but I don't think people understand that it has to be 4 shooters that fit. Which is not necessarily what we have right now.

SENGUN
For example Sengun fits better in the slow pace. His post game is his best asset and it doesn't fit next to a Giannis-clone. That's why Lopez and Portis only went to the post if Giannis is resting. There's a clear hierarchy. If Giannis is in there, then they spread the floor. That makes life easy. In a fast paced system, Sengun essentially becomes a far superior version of Draymond Green on offense. He's more of a 16 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists guy in that setting.

Further, Sengun is a badly impacted defender at the C position when we play a spacious fast paced game. He's learned to be a very good positional defender and use angles. All of that goes away when you're running a spacious high pace game where a rim protector's athleticism starts to become a factor. You don't want to expose him like that and play to other players' strengths. You want to make it a physical game where his smarts and positioning are a bigger factor.

DURANT
Finally, and this is probably the bigger problem, there's Durant. Durant is not going to be just a spacer for Amen who bails him out when needed. He is simply the better scorer and we are not in development mode. The team went all in on a 36 year old and extended him. We gave up 3 at least "good" assets to get him in Brooks, Maluach and Green. You don't acquire Kevin Durant to be a mentor. You don't acquire Kevin Durant as the 2nd seed in the West and NOT expect improvement. You don't acquire Kevin Durant just to go from first round exit to second round exit.

What does KD like? KD likes playoff basketball. Slow, smart iso game that's heavily dependent on skill rather than athleticism. Can he be a spacer for Amen? Yes sure, but he will not be his full self and I believe we saw that at the beginning of the season. You want to squeeze as many max seasons out of KD as possible, and making him fit someone else's style is not the way.

ROCKETS
This team is not designed around Amen right now (and I'm really upset with the team for not even trying). They just shoved him into the PG role and put Amen in the toughest spot without doing anything to help him - very much like they did with Jalen. They didn't build around KD or Sengun either - they just built around Udoka's random obsessions. We have 3 C's and only one of them can kind of shoot - that's really unforgivable from the franchise to not acquire a stretch 5 as a backup to give us the option of unleashing Amen. Even if we decided to go uptempo and space the floor and Udoka had an epiphany about offense and defense being equally important, I don't think it's feasible with our roster makeup. The team's shooters aren't that good. We intentionally take very few 3's in order to achieve a high % on them, but if you pace and space it will get exposed. If we take an average number of 3's, we would make an average number of them. If we took a high number of 3's, I bet we would be near bottom of the league (a bit better than last season)/ A lot of our guys have slow releases on their jumper and I bet they would crumble in high pace and volume.

This season, I think Amen has to suck it up and he has to develop a jumper. When he develops that barely-decent jumper, defenders will move up close, he will drive and dish more successfully, then his assists will go up too. When his jumper is barely decent and his assists are up, he's going to look like a god. When that happens, the conversation will be over and the team will build around him or someone will get fired. I think that's our future.

 

I don’t know what you’re talking about or what that measures. Im just telling from what I saw in games. When he drives they guard him. Otherwise he would have wide open drives to the basket. Does the metrics say he isn’t guarded 16-18 ft out?

 

Overall he has negative gravity for both perimeter and interior on ball and off ball. You can find him in page 5 of 6. He is one of the least guarded players in the NBA.

https://www.nba.com/inside-the-game/player/gravity?dir=D&sort=AVGGRAVITYSCORE

Of course when he drives they try to guard him, but then again Amen drives very little against set defenses unlike say Deni, usually his drives are in transition for break away dunks so nobody tries to guard him.

My opinion, he should be like Deni and start aggressively going to the line every play. He is a lot more athletic and lengthy than Deni if Deni can do it he can too.

 

I think he was not really motivated and I guess the first time he really experienced Injuries.....being so durable over such a lengthy time.

 

I'm not sure if barely-decent jumper will elevate Amen to god level or look a like. He will be challenged in high intensity moments (7 game series) to prove it. Barely-decent doesn't cut it more often than not.

Can you share a rough % what barely-decent represents in your reference? 46% middy, 34% 3pt?