Some quibbles: 04 Brady, 06 Rothelisberger, and 16 Manning were not playing anywhere close to "really good QB level" much less HoF level play. Even years like 05 Brady, he was mainly carried by the rest of this team. Wilson is not a future Hall of Famer, and I don't think he is top 25 all time. You could even argue he was carried by his defense during those Super Bowl Runs. Even Eli is viewed as the ultimate borderline HoF in most people's eyes, but I will give you him to not go down rabbit holes. Flacco's 13 Super Bowl run is in the conversation for one of the greatest playoff hot streaks ever. (24+ points, 240+ yards, 2-3 TD's, and PR > 106 in every game). Foles played out of his mind in the CG and SB and won those games for the Eagles. So while yes, 04, 05, 06, and 16 meet your career metrics, I don't think they really qualify as a needing all Pro level QB play to win a SB. I would also disagree that 14 meets your career metrics. So that would make it 14 of 22 SB winners with an ~HoF QB playing at that level and carrying team. Still more likely than not, but in 33% of SB's you don't have to have that guy, and in some of those years maybe your QB --even if a career back up/journeyman-- can get hot and still play at that level.
