I have completely changed my thoughts on SP contracts. For the past couple of years, I have been "As short term as possible. Limit potential losses" Now my thoughts are that it is extremely likely that a SP gets hurt and misses 2 years, but mist likely will return healthy. So make a contract the length it needs to be for it to be good with 2 lost seasons. If a guy wants $75M he needs to get at least 7.5 WAR. Fangraphs projects King for 3.1 WAR and he had 3.9 WAR in 2024 when he was healthy. It's possible that 2 healthy + 2 injured seasons makes this a good value, but another healthy year would raise the chances. In 3 healthy seasons, King should get at least 9 WAR So I prefer 5 yrs /$90M over 3 yrs /$75M King gets $15M more guaranteed $18M AAV instead of $25M Much better chance of getting value if King needs TJS. King probably won't go for AAV under $20M I pass unless he goes 5 yrs.
You don't even need to change sports or teams for good examples. Morton and Correa were Astros who had that experience of getting healthier later in their careers.
Some 100% have said if you trade Yordan there is no way you can be better in 2026, and I don't believe that to be true Your initial post on that definitely wasn't geared towards me then, cause i've NEVER said his best years are behind him. How many healthy seasons he has in his future none of us know, but when he IS healthy he is as good as a hitter as anyone in baseball. I just think the comparisons to those guys when it comes to their own franchises view is different because as I said, Dana Brown knows he ain't keeping Yordan here long term The biggest negative with Yordan (other than the injuries obviously) is he really needs to be a DH only. He isn't awful in LF, but we simply need him to be in as few situations that could possibly cause an injury as possible. Mix that with Altuve needing to be a DH more because of his defense, and your overall roster construction isn't great. Having said that, I know that I value defense way more than most people so I get why most would be on the other side
You're saying you'd rather pay a guy 2 extra years at a super-cheap rate than not? I'm sure every franchise would prefer that. And no pitcher who thinks he's worth $25MM today is going give away 2 years of his career at $7.5MM/yr. That has nothing to do with having 2 injured seasons. It's just basic value.
To be fair, Strom was the pitching coach for Cole, Greinke, Morton Since he moved on we have taken multiple guys and made them significantly better, but almost/all of them have suffered significant injuries Hopefully they see Burrows as someone they don't need to mess with much other than pitch sequencing, which is basically all they did with Kikuchi I believe
That's true. But my point is that also happened with the guys we already had - McCullers, Garcia, Javier, Urquidy, Arrighetti, etc. So it might just be that that's going to happen with ANY starting pitchers the Astros have, however they acquire them. I know your point was to take guys who were already good - but I still think the Astros' philosophy is to tinker with them regardless.
So as we sit right now H Brown Burrows Javier Arrighetti Weiss/Blubaugh/LMJ/Pearson With Alexander/Gordon there as swingmen or one call away in Sugarland If we can add a guy who slots in between Hunter and Burrows and move everyone down a slot, we would be in good shape
I don't have numbers to back this up, but Sure seems like us, the Rays and the Dodgers have way more SP injuries than the other 29 teams We also seem to get more out of the amount of talent they have than anyone else On those players specifically Arrighetti lost most of last season because of a freak broken thumb Garcia and Urquidy were rolling along great until pitching in the WBC in 23, then having TJ after short stints in the regular season for the Astros Garcia was dominant in the WBC which is great and all, but pitching in March with the intensity of game 7 of the World Series has consequences
None of those had any pedigree. They were all guys we signed for change we found in the couch. Maybe they wouldn't have been major leagues at all without the Astros.
Apparently we just traded Melton and Brito for Mike Burrows from Pittsburgh. *edit Just saw a couple of pages ago. But yeah I like we have club control. Hopefully they see something in him in which he could be a number 2 punch behind Hunter.
I understand this. I specifically said the player would not go for it. But I would not sign ANY pitcher to a high AAV contract unless the length of it made it possible to come out even if 2 seasons were lost. Unlike position players, less than 5 ( possibly 4) is a bad bad risk in my opinion.
Updated opening day roster prediction: SS Pena DH Paredes LF Alvarez 3B Correa 2B Altuve 1B Walker RF Sanchez C Diaz CF Cole Bench: Matthews, Christian Vasquez, Allen, Trammell SP: Brown, Verlander, Javier, Burrows, Weiss RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Pearson, Sousa, Okert, Munoz, McCullers Optioned: Arrighetti, Blubaugh, Ullola, Gordon, France, Alexander, Murray, Salazar, Whitcomb, Smith, Dezenzo IL: Wesneski, Blanco, Walter DFA: Ort, De Los Santos Traded: Meyers
Yeah. Waiting for Verlander to sign. Maybe there’s a meyers trade for something. Maybe not. This might be it.
Dealing Melton is the beginning of @Snake Diggit ’s point about Brown needing to get it right on which of the OF prospects to develop or keep. I like that Brown dealt from that OF pool. Maybe the price is steep, whatever. Looking at the Baz trade, yeah prices are steep. I’m glad we paid from the OF surplus. He just needs to be right about dealing melton. I wonder if the CH will become a more highly valued pitch in this max effort max velo era because it puts less strain on elbow. I like the move. Burrows has the tools. I trust the Astros to maximize his output. I would love a trade for SP2, but I think the Astros probably see this as their big trade for arm talent that hopefully becomes SP2. Meyers, Sanchez wont get us a SP2. Just salary relief to sign JV and an OF bat. Or Caratini as a backup plan if we can’t get an OF.
