Astros almost made the playoffs last year, effectively without Javier and Alvarez, and had a lot more go wrong than just those 2. Losing them would make the margin of error smaller, but stranger things has happened and happens almost every year for some team. I just much preferred when the Astros didn't rely on luck, and just beat the snot out of teams.
Yes it is hard because owners and front offices have pressure to extend their own guys beyond their controllable period AND to improve their roster each year (assuming they are competitive). At the same time, the agents for many of these guys under team control are telling their clients NOT to sign extensions beyond the window of team control. So a lot of times - the Astros and similar teams have been stuck either offering extension to unaccomplished players and speculating they work out (Singleton and Grossman), or they end up getting very good players to sign an extension only waiving a season or two of free agency (Bregman) or they end up investing in more up and down type players that will take the security of money now (McCullers/Javier). When they go to pursuing free agents that are near stars, they are left with older players because they are gun shy to commit 6+ year deals - or guys coming off injuries or inconsistencies. I can see why an organization like the Astros could decide to take an absolutist position on these issues (but I don't think it is bright). I don't think the Astros would have the discipline to do it - but they would be better off not pursuing any free agents that cost them a top draft pick - and trying to trade for competitive advantage picks to supplement.... and that would help letting some players walk that will not sign an extension early on.
Correct… which is why their participation is a must to actually make the playoffs (along with replacing the 70% dominant Framber’s season). The AL was pretty weak last year. Maybe it’s weak again this year. Maybe this is just how it is now in terms of parity. Maybe it’s maybeline.
I have no issue with Crane’s apparent complete unwillingness to give contracts longer than 6 years. I totally understand it; a huge contract going south can cripple a franchise. I don’t think that has had any negative impact on their organizational outlook or performance. The 2 things they’ve done that have hurt them are: (1) signing QO free agents after losing 4 top picks to the sign stealing penalty, and (2) whiffing on multiple significant ($20M-$100M) contracts. Once they got hit with those draft pick penalties they should have had a self imposed rule to not sign QO free agents and do everything possible to acquire draft picks from other teams. It seems like an obvious thing. It’s harder to say if they should have avoided the McCullers, Abreu, Walker, and Javier contracts; none of them seemed bad at the time. It’s possible those turning sour was just bad luck.
No doubt Dana Brown learned lesson on Chas McCormick injuries, losing speed, terrible batting stance, value tanking and eventual release. Trade Jake Myers before his value goes back down.
One of the most frustrating parts about the sign stealing bullshit is just how good the Astros were. After winning a WS, ALCS appearance, and a pennant consecutively… the sign stealing **** dropped and then the punishments came out. (The Astros went on to go ALCS appearance, AL Pennant, WS winner, ALCS appearance) The loss of draft picks were always going to affect a team like the Astros due to how they operate contractually. Lucky for us, our team was full of studs who kept winning and weren’t deterred at all by the scandal (save a couple months of the Covid year) and a system that was designed to replenish and replace the pending free agents they refused to pay. We will know pretty soon whether Dana hit on some of his draft picks the past couple years. With 2 1st rd picks he has a huge opportunity this summer to really boost the Astros minor league system.
To me Jim Crane needs to be more direct. Does he want to pay for Jeremy Pena and Hunter Brown. If not trade them and go Full Rebuild. Just a waste to let them walk for free. Get talented Prospects back while they have peak value. Kyle Tucker trade worked out Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith Texans Deshaun Watson, James Harden got back a haul of picks, both teams Drafted well and became Contenders years later. That is how sports teams works.
