Right now there is a lot of picking at the edges -- teams extending and paying more to make sure that certain holes are filled before larger players coming off the board, or teams with a particular singular need and the money to take the best (Dodgers and a closer). It is interesting, because if there wasn't some degree of restraint, a lot of the big names would be off the board - and outside of the Jays, other teams have been very restrained on bigger name players. Even those (Kelly and Schwarber) that are gone had a strong desire to sign with the team they view as "home".
Pena and Brown will be free agents before 2029 and there’s near 0% chance Houston extends or resigns them. Correa will still be around if he stays healthy. Otherwise that currently projects to be a 75-80 win team. Houston will need a lot to go right to compete beyond 2027-2028.
I should word it as contending teams need guys like him over 162/tournament... vs. the middling teams. The Dodgers don't win it all last year without guys like Kike and Edmund. The Yankees needed guys like Grisham. The golden era Astros needed every bit of the Marisnick's, Kemp's. Diaz', Dubon's. The guys that will never break the bank but hard to win titles without them.
Sure. That being said, I do believe they have a lot of injury prone players... and the bulk of their top 10 payroll was invested in guys who are either injury prone, aging, or past prime. I don't like having a top 10 payroll and none of the money is for guys in their true primes (or oft-injured). Yordan, Javier, LMJ, Hader and now Correa are injury prone. Altuve should not be playing more than 150 games at all. Bryan Abreu will probably come down with a surgery-required ailment at some point. Just a matter of time for Hunter Brown as well. Their best asset was Framber/Brown and when they were good... the team was good, but hard to win with those sorts of margins.
They do have some players that are injury prone for sure - and their money allocation isn't ideal either, but that doesn't mean they were middling as a team. I don't either - again it is not a good thing, but the Astros have been able to balance that better than most teams. I would love to not have to pay McCullers 17 million next season, or even Walker 20 million... but most teams have similar issues. I don't know if Javier is injury prone. He had a surgery but before then was usually pitching over 100 innings...... Yordan averaged almost 140 games the prior 4 years..... Correa has been healthy 4 of the last 5 seasons.... Agree on Altuve not playing 150 games, he wears out. There were a lot of injuries last year - by a lot of guys not really injury prone. Pena missed like 6 weeks...... Paredes missed 2.5 months..... Yordan missed over 100 games..... Blanco, Wesneski, Arrighetti, Walter, Hader, Sousa. So going forward in 2026, I don't know what to expect -- but in 2025 there was some really bad luck involved.
I think I read that the 25 Astros had the most IR stints than any team in MLB history. I’d say that is really really bad luck.
Concerns on Javier from 2020 on his ability to pitch a full season’s workload as a starter. That’s what led to the ‘bridge’ role in 2021-2022. Then he was out of shape. Then he got hurt. Yordan had double knee surgery in his 20’s…. Yes, he can stay healthy in stretches but he’s missed basically 2 full seasons during this era. That’s injury prone. Correa worked out his problems… but he’s still going to miss time and now he’s of the age that he will wear down if he tries to play full tilt for 162. Every team is going to have the Pena/Paredes type injuries throughout the year (as will the Astros next year). The last guys are all pitchers… and pitcher injuries are also the new norm especially if you have the max effort strategy the Astros employ. They’ll have better luck there next year, but losing a 200 inning workhorse like Framber cannot be over-emphasized as far as that’s true impact. Sorry, I don’t think this team underperformed last year… they finished about where they were projected to. Had they maintained the 20+ games over .500 trajectory as they were at one point, I would say they overperformed. But in the end, you are who you are after 162… even with record setting injuries. And by all means, teams that don’t make the expanded playoffs (but also aren’t cellar dwellers) are as middling as they come. (All that being said, they can easily make some noise iif they get all-star years out of Pena, Yanier, Yordan, and see Cam Smith make a leap…. But starting pitching will be the biggest question mark)
Despite all of these other if's and's and but's, if Framber hadn't fallen apart this team would've been a playoff team. All isn't lost when it comes to the 2026 Stros. If Dana was able to trade for Baz and sign Giolito in FA fans would or at least should begin to look at things differently.
You really don't have to squint too hard to see that with those injuries the Astros lost 5-7 WAR or more, last year. With only half of those injuries, the Astros would have coasted to a division title.
Javier pitched: 100 innings, then 150 innings, then 160 innings.... and then had Tommy John. Concerns about him going deep into games are fair, but I wouldn't call him injury prone at this point. Yordan Alvarez played 145, 135, 115, 140 games.... in the last 4 years going into last season. Correa isn't and shouldn't play 162 games - none of the Astros should. Not Pena/Paredes injuries on top of losing 6 starting pitchers, your closer and 7th inning reliever - and your DH and 3rd baseman. Framber Valdez is a huge loss ---- and yes pitchers get injured more often than in the past, but not like what the Astros suffered last season. No - the Astros would not have won 87 games if they did not have the worst injury situation in baseball and in franchise history--- and the injuries are why they underperformed. Then we have different definitions of "middling", the Astros were in a position to win their division with like 10 days left in the season, and were only a handful of games from having a top 5 record. I agree with this - and especially starting pitching. There is more variability with this team than prior teams. Imagine if Hunter Brown gets hurt?
This comment got me curious. I went and looked at every team's payroll commitments to see what bad contracts they all had (underwater, >$10M/yr). You are right. The average team only has 1-2 bad contracts on their books. There are 7-8 teams with no bad contracts. There are really only 3 teams who are in clearly worse shape than the Astros in terms of underwater/dead money: the Angels (Trout, Rendon, Soler, Stephenson), Blue Jays (Berrios, Gimenez, Santander, Hoffman, but they dgaf because they just won the AL pennant), Mets (Semien, Manaea, Minter, Montes, but they dgaf because they have unlimited money), and the Padres (Darvish, Bogaerts, Machado). The good news for the Astros is their bad contracts are all only 1-2 years remaining, and it's possible that Javier and Walker could get some redemption this season. Cardinals: Arenado Orioles: O'Neill White Sox: Benintendi Tigers: Baez Royals: Lugo Angels: Trout, Rendon, Soler, Stephenson Twins: Correa (paying Astros $10m/yr) Yankees: Stanton, LeMahieu Rangers: Pederson Blue Jays: Gimenez, Berrios, Santander, Hoffman Diamondbacks: Burnes, Rodriguez Braves: Profar, Strider Rockies: Bryant, Senzatela Dodgers: Glasnow, Hernandez, Scott Mets: Semien, Manaea, Minter, Montes Phillies: Castellanos, Walker, Nola Pirates: Reynolds Padres: Darvish, Bogaerts, Machado Giants: Devers Nats: Strasburg Reds: Candelario Astros: Walker, McCullers, Javier
All true... but Javier/Yordan need to stay healthy (and have good seasons) to have any shot of making the playoffs next year. There's a reason they were easily extended below market rate when they were. And I'm glad they were. But they're not the average workhorses. They'll also need Arrighetti to take a leap (which he can). Brown to continue to be elite/healthy (which he should). And at least one more starting pitcher that can stay healthy and supplement some of the innings lost by Framber. Pena/Paredes/Yanier are wild cards that can take this lineup from possible playoffs to WS contender. They can do it in spurts (Yanier especially). And sometimes you need a carousel of guys who can carry a team while others struggle. But if all of them have consistency and produce? That would be a huge huge huge win. Yanier has been putting in work. He was trending in the right direction as the season went on. He's still young enough to find another level. If all of the above happens, and they get minimal regression from Altuve/Correa (with more built-in rest) and the bullpen.... this is a dangerous team by all means. But starting pitching (with luck/health) will be the true limiting factor.
