What are the chances that Altuve does not become a first ballot Hall of Famer

Good music

 

I'm not allegedly. Father was a layman Music Director, Mother a Church Pianist, Grandfather a Preacher (1948-1990)/Chaplain (WWII - Active through Korea - Reserve)

My family was heartbroken when Baylor hired an Academic who led off their takeover with a Dance.

 

Altuve has zero chance at 1st ballot. With all the false narratives about him, they will probably freeze him out for years.

 

I disagree and certainly hope thst isn't the case.

I think it will be 2nd year if not 1st.

Which will be determined by the rest of his career.

 

You're talking mostly about NYC Sports Reporters. Do NOT expect fairness from a bunch of DAMNED YANKEES. If they were fair, Berkman would be in the HOF.

 

75 percent is a near impossible threshold to meet in the first year considering the composition of voters. I have accepted that.

Second year, I am willing to bet it happens. Beltran needs to get in first to set the precedent.

 

I love Berkman and think he should be 50/50 to be a hall of famer.

I expected him to languish on the ballot for years like Larry Walker or Tim Raines

I'm not upset that he didn't make it but am disappointed that he didn't even stay on the ballot.

If it was just about big media markets, he would have had plenty of votes to stay on the ballot at least.

But with all due respect, he's not Jose Altuve.

 

You're underestimating just how UNFAIR NYC Sports Reporters are. It's like asking TRUMP to endorse Hilary or Visa Varsa. It's never going to happen.

 

I hope you are right. I hate most everybody in the media. I was a journalism major back when I was young and stupid and thought it was a noble profession. What a joke that profession has become.

 

2019 ballot was stacked. 4 first balloters. 6 others that eventually got in. Plus Schilling, Bonds, Clemens (and Jones, Tejada, and Pettitte). Then Astros friendly votes split with Roy Oswalt's only appearance on the ballot. Also throw in that Berkman's worst year was in a Yankees uniform.

 

If Baines is in, Berkman gotta be in too

 

All I'm saying is there are tons of writers who are not in NYC

 

True, but many of those WANT TO BE like certain radio types right here in Houston.

 

I am worried about the LA, Arlington, Oakland, and Boston writers as well. That's enough to be enough 25% no votes. You can't even get 75% of people to agree on the best Marvel movie.

 

Yes, but also a DH mostly.
The fact he played in Boston and came through in the post season made him a first ballot guy.
Carlos delgado had better 162 game averages than Ortiz and fell off after the first ballot.

 

Says the kid who drinks bourbon with coke

 

What's wrong with a little... Oh, I see.

 

Beltran's induction all but guarantees Altuve within 3 years of eligibility.

 

All this discussion made me look at an actual comparison between the two

Beltran as of right now has 110 more doubles (565-455), 46 more triples (78-32), 180 more HRs (435-255) then Jose
Beltran also has 346 more runs scored and 448 more RBI than Jose
Beltran was also regarded as an outstanding defensive player

Altuve has 24 points of batting average on him (303-279) but he will need to rebound from his .265 last year in order to keep a significant edge there
Altuve has a 10 point advantage in OBP (360-350) but again coming off of a .329
Beltran has 20 points of SLG on Jose (.486-.466)

So right now Beltran has a SIGNIFICANT advantage on Jose in all of the counting stats

Altuve has 4 more years on his contract, the last of which he will play at age 39.

Maybe he has a rebound year coming from last year, where injury may have played a role in him not being "as" good (he was still very good). It's unlikely he has 4 more years left at even last years pace, but let's say he averages what he did last year for 4 more years and ends his career at age 39

The numbers would then look like this
Doubles: Beltran 565-551
Triples: Beltran 78-36
HR: Beltran 435-359
Runs: Beltran 1582-1556
RBI: Beltran 1587-1447

The averaging stats would be very close to even across the board at that point, with Beltran having a decent advantage over Jose in Slugging

Beltran without a doubt was a better defensive player

The fact that Jose has had some great playoff moments would stand out against many player in his advantage, but while Beltran has roughly half the playoff plate appearances, he has a .307 average with a 1.021 OPS, and one of the best single season playoff performances in baseball history

AND, Beltran played his best years in the major market of NYC

And it took Beltran 4 years to make it

Jose is my 3rd favorite Astro of all time (Carlos, that game 5 HR still gives me chill bumps, and Lance "here is a curveball what you gonna do with it MF McCullers), but it's gonna be hard to make an argument he deserves to get in "easier" than Beltran, especially to media in the big markets. And those big markets do matter, cause you ain't getting to 75% without them

 

We all know why Beltran's induction was delayed. His numbers were already solid as a candidate. Altuve's numbers and credentials already exceed Kent's, and voters consider era and position (the latter doesn't make as sense to me as a 2nd tier shortstop could be a top tier 2nd baseman).