This has proabably been stated by someone else, but everything turns on whether we can deal for a SP1 or 2. If so, whatever dollars we have to spend in should go to the best pitcher among JV Giolito Heaney Montgomery. We can afford any of them, but only one more spot to fill, so go for quality. It burns most of the remaining $$ we have, but that’s the greatest need. If we don’t trade for SP1 or 2, then we are value shopping. We need 2 arms from the FA group. I think the Astros are at a disadvantage to land that tier of SP because we have too many SP4 and 5 guys they have to compete with. They want to sign where they have a clear path to a rotation spot to boost their value for the next FA contract. Those pitchers are better off signing with a bad team with horrible pitching situations, unless they are fixated on playoff chances over dollars at late stage in career.
I actually think you look at Donovan more than just his HR numbers, like we did with Yuli. He is a desperately needed lefty bat He strikes out less than 15% of PAs He is a linedrive hitter, not a groundball hitter, with slightly better than MLB average hard hit rate. 2026 is his age 29 season and he's controllable for 2 seasons. He has started at least 23 games at: 2B, LF, 3B, and RF and also started at SS and 1B. If he was coming in here to be a run producer in the middle of the lineup, I would agree with you but he would be coming here to balance and lengthen the lineup and provide positional depth while adding another 3+ WAR player. Potential playoff lineup: Pena SS Donovan RF Paredes DH Yordan LF Correa 3B Altuve 2B Walker 1B Diaz C Meyers CF He pushes Correa from 4 to 5 He pushes Altuve from 5 to 6 He pushes Walker from 6 to 7 He pushes Diaz from 7 to 8
I understand and agree with the potential problems with giving these guys starts and hoping. . . But I hope you are wrong about needing 2 guys better than Javier because at this point I will be thrilled with 1 And a more dependable #5 type would be a welcome bonus.
I will be sick if the Mariners get Donovan At this point I offer their choice of Melton or Mathews + any 2 pitching prospects. Prospects are just prospects Donovan makes Mathews expendable (possibly unless Meyers is traded) I don't have strong feelings that there are 2 pitching prospects significantly better than the rest of the top 4 or 5.
$20 mil a year is higher than I thought he'd go with his age and performance. Not optimistic with the high prices for marginal talent right now.
A contending team under the as-is roster by fwar: SS Pena 4.0 DH Paredes 2.5 LF Alvarez 5.5 3B Correa 4.0 2B Altuve 3.0 1B Walker 2.0 C Diaz 3.0 RF Smith 2.0 CF Cole 2.0 Bench: Matthews 1.0, Salazar 0.5, Allen 0.5, Sanchez 1.0 SP: Brown 4.5, Javier 3.0, Weiss 2.0, Arrighetti 2.0, Others 2.0 RP: Hader 2.0, Abreu 1.5, King 1.0, Okert 0.5, Sousa 0.5, Munoz 0.5, Pearson 0.5 That’s a 50 fwar team. Individually none of those numbers are unrealistic; they all likely fall within each players 75th percentile outcome. But collectively the odds of this roster all living up to that are very very low.
There really aren’t that many team looking for SP. looking at which teams are likely looking at adding an established reliable SP: Red Sox Rays Yankees (2) Angels Cubs (2) Orioles Giants (2) Astros (2) Guardians Padres Rockies So that’s ~15 spots for good SP. There are probably ~5 of those spots that will be filled by trade, leaving ~10 spots for free agents teams will be willing to spend good money on. My take is there are 7 good SP still on the FA market: Framber, Suarez, King, Gallen, Bassitt, Littell, and Eflin. After that is a large tier of about a dozen guys who should ink big league deals but will have to wait their turn, led by Verlander and Giolito. Knowing Houston won’t be playing in the first tier, I think they can wait out the market and get good deals on 2nd tier pitchers.
There are quite a few pitching prospects I like a lot. Starting with Pecko and Brito. I dont know that I would give up either one of those guys for Donovan. I might see what it would take to get Nootbar though.
Good post Do JV/Giolito have QO offers? If not, that's probably the way I would go this offseason if I couldn't trade Walker for Senga.
Neither of them have a QO. I would be satisfied if Houston signed Giolito and JV for <$25M combined AAV. Giolito’s high school pitching coach is Houston’s new pitching coach, and of course Verlander is BFF with Crane, so both guys should be interested in playing for Houston. If Houston could trade Meyers and Sanchez for a backup C and prospects and manage to sign Verlander, Giolito, and O’Hearn, I would really like their roster: SS Pena DH Paredes LF Alvarez 3B Correa 2B Altuve RF O’Hearn 1B Walker C Diaz CF Cole Bench: Matthews, ???, Allen, Melton SP: Brown, Giolito, Verlander, Javier, Weiss RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Pearson, Sousa, Okert, Munoz, McCullers Optioned: Arrighetti, Blubaugh, Ullola, Gordon, Alexander, France, Murray, Salazar, Whitcomb, Smith, Dezenzo IL: Blanco, Wesneski, Walter DFA: Ort, De Los Santos
Alvarez and O'Hearn would make one of the worst defensive OFs in baseball history. That makes total sense when most of your projected staff are fly ball pitchers. Why is anyone suggesting the Mets would be interested in trading for Walker when they just signed Polanco for a similar deal to play the majority of the games at 1B. If the Astros are serious about playing Altuve at 2B then keeping Walker is a better idea that adding another oft injured starting pitcher to the team. At this point just trade Paredes for a lefty hitting corner OF, the Red Sox have a **** ton of them and Paredes would be an ideal guy for the green monster and one of their corner IF positions
Donovan is a good not great player. If the Astros are actually to contend and possibly extend a window we need to find greatness somewhere. Trading for a guy whose value production hasn't been significantly better than Jake Meyers over the last 3 seasons isn't a direction I want us going if major prospect capital is involved. I would rather take a swing on pitchers because that's the area our franchise actually seems to excel at maxing. Frankly I would rather see Altuve at 2B than LF. I think the in house options already have the potential to be a great lineup as is.
Donavan would lengthen the lineup, but I struggle to see see a world in which Paredes and Yordan are not 2 and 3 in the lineup. Donovan could lead off if Pena struggles. Or maybe Donavan leads off vs RHP and Pena vs LHP.
Yeah, I would absolutely love adding Giolito and JV. At this point, I think that’s our best realistic outcome. I expect prices will remain high except for true journeymen like Montgomery. I’m probably just being pessimistic. I don’t know that we can get enough financial room to sign a bat as good as O Hearn as well. He doesn’t neatly fit into our roster construction but is a great LHB hedge for injury, walker suckage, or just resting regulars.
I think it takes them out of the market for Jesus Sanchez, but not Meyers Donovan is twice the player Nootbar is ( though I do like Nootbar) Nootbar had surgery on both heels after the season and there are doubts how it will affect his 2026 season. They do expect it to help the rest of his career though.
I agree they probably won’t have the resources to add 3 pieces (2 SP and a LHB). The way things are trending the team is going to be heavily reliant on young players breaking out (Cole, Smith, Matthews, Melton, Dezenzo) and guys rebounding (Walker, Alvarez, Diaz, Sanchez) to contend. The market doesn’t seem to be cooperating to make it possible for them to complete their roster. My takeaway is that Houston just does not have the resources to be able to absorb $60M/yr+ in underwater contracts and still contend. Thats not a revelation or anything but it’s the thing that underpins their predicament.
I think this is a choice. They could add $30M in payroll but are making the decision that staying under the CBT is more beneficial to the organization. This does not mean they can't compete, but it gives them less room for error. It also puts more pressure on Brown to make the right decisions. I think the young guys having to step up is by design. Young guys producing solves a problem for 5-6+ years. Trading for a Donovan or signing a Walker only solve it for 2-3, and at a higher salary. You just have to pick the right young guys. Kyle Tucker - good Derek Fisher - Bad
