5 offensive rebounds are worth more positive value than 1.5 turnovers are bad. I'd guess an offensive rebound is worth more positive value than a turnover is bad, but not by that much (likely within 10-15% absoulte value). I think the Rockets sheer volume advantage in offensive rebounds is all this is showing.
Well, it doesn't matter if our efficiency isn't that great after getting the offensive rebound, because we're going to get the ball back after missing the second chance shot.
You joke, but it would not surprise me if the Rockets' efficiency on possessions with at least 1 offensive rebound was Top 10 if taking into account 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 18th chances instead of treating each subsequent rebound a new play. Edit: Couldn't help myself, making a few assumptions and using Cleaning the Glasses's putback and points per miss stats, the Rockets look to have about the 7th most efficient offense on possessions with at least 1 offensive rebound.
We are going for the offensive rebound for a new possession, most other teams go for an offensive rebound mostly when there is an opportunity to score immediately like a put back. It is expected that we will have a lower efficiency.
I'd say most teams have started tagging, but just don't the personel the Rockets have. There are a few teams that only rebound on easy attempts. I think the Rockets efficiency is low partly because teams defend the rebound harder versus the Rockets and because the Rockets don't shoot many threes. On tagging, I'd guess there are quite a few teams that tag offensively more than the Rockets. Adams just tags harder.
That says to me this team still has a lot of work to do on the offensive end. They have managed to outscore teams by being a fairly mediocre offensive unit who gets more opportunities to score than most teams do but in a 7 game series, what does this team look like if an opponent commits to a playing style utilizing it's best rebounders and cuts into that advantage? Thinking about OKC(who we will most certainly have to go through on the way to a title), if OKC's game plan was to sit Chet and Zay in the paint all game and force us to beat them from outside and otherwise focus solely on rebounding misses defensively - what does our offense score in that scenario? 85ish points? It does look like a work in progress but we should all be seeing growth throughout the season so that so much of our offense isn't propped up by offensive rebounds. That should be a differentiator for us, but it's a problem if it's the thing that takes us from mediocre team to statistical contender on paper because I'm not convinced that advantage can be rode all the way to a title. One thing I learned in many years of watching playoff basketball is good NBA teams can normally take away one of two big advantages in a series and then the victorious team is the one who can find other ways to be effective. Right now, I don't see the counter on this Rockets team if a team were to be able to contain our offensive rebounding - just too many streaky offensive players on this roster to count on reliably in a 7 game series if we dont have the points per possession advantage propped up by 2nd chance buckets.
One thing I've learned through years of watching basketball is that counters require giving something else up. A team can't just snap its fingers and stop an opponent's big advantage if it is something they can't normally do. It is much more likely that teams scheme to beat the Rockets weaknesses than find a scheme to beat the Rockets strength. GSW attacked the Rockets by not guarding non-shooters, making it difficult to score inside, shooting a ton of threes, and making their free throws. Much more concerned with teams daring Amen, Okogie, Adams, and Sengun to take 20 threes than teams shutting down the offensive reboundign without giving up some easy baskets.
Good call out of the nuance between attacking weaknesses vs strengths. In this case, the strength only comes because of the weakness so it's even more meta - haha! I think our concerns are the same here though - that if you concede the deep ball to anyone not named Durant/Jabari/Reed - you can scheme to pack the paint if you have a high level defense. Yes - it takes away your ability to get a lot of transition buckets so that's the capability you give away but potential playoff teams like OKC, GS, 'Sota, and LA generate very little offense this way anyway so it doesn't hurt them as much as it hurts us(assuming they have personnel who can actually box out our rebounders). Remains to be seen if anyone can keep Adams/Capela off the offensive glass but I would be interested to see how our team fares without those guys just to see how much our overall offense is impacted by that.
Offensive rebounding has translated very well from the regular season to the playoffs. Maybe OKC can slow it down without hurting themselves elsewhere, but OKC can do a lot of things. Other than that, it will be interesting to see if the Rockets can rebound enough to counter the other team's strength. I do think there is possibly another evolution in the defense that relates to offensive rebounding. Basically the Rockets fall back if they don't get the rebound. Instead of a fallback, the Rockets could just try to pressure ball all the way up the court. Not a full court pressure defense. Just whoever is on the ball picks up his man and makes him work to get ball down the court. This can chew up the shot clock. As the Rockets are physically tagging guys in the paint going for rebounds, the Rockets are in position to check the ball all the way up the court often. I don't expect the Rockets to do this in the regular season unless they get really healthy as it is very taxing on both teams. In the playoffs, you are playing the same team over and over again. Rotating Amen, Okogie, DFS, and Tari as guys who pressure the ball could wear down the opposing team's point guard.
This schedule is egregious. I knew it was bad that we had played soooo few games compared to everyone else. But then this unnecessary 5 days off then another 3 days off is stupid. Are there broadcasting issues because of the olympics or something? I didn't even know that was about to start until it was mentioned during Texans broadcast. Is it to build up demand for the NBA cup games? I'm so bored!
We have injuries and an older star yet yall are complaining about having a light schedule to start the season lol ok
I get that. And have even said the same thing regarding the silver lining. It's still irritating for fans.
Why? Intuitively, it kind of seems like this actually better positions us for playoff success... In the playoffs, everyone's offense gets sloppier and uglier because defenses and effort increase. Offense never goes according to plan. Offensive rebounds leading to extra possessions is the definition of offense not going according to plan. If we're set up to grab more of the loose balls and rim bounces that will increase in volume, I think we're in decent shape for the playoffs. Yeah, we'll shoot even worse, but so will everyone else (including our opponents, given our stout defense).
If all the best teams are healthy. I expect it to come down to coaching and matchups. We match up well personnel wise with Okc, so it could get interesting if Ime doesn’t run into his white whale like last year.
I still feel like a dark horse contender, but we still really need that FVV-like player to help with the playmaking and shooting. Maybe we make a trade or maybe Amen and/or Reed starts getting more consistent. Wing depth felt like a strength heading into the season but Tari and DFS being out is being felt.
OKC has superior coaching and all around talent. They are incredibly deep and they have a legitimate superstar player. I don’t think Houston matches up with them well at all. But I don’t think any team matches up “well” with them. Sure they can be beat it’s a game but any team they play needs to be ON.
