I never said advanced metrics aren’t legitimate. I’m just saying that you can almost always find one advanced metric or another to make somebody look good. So, any metric should be evaluated along with other information. You’ve been watching him for the past year plus, he’s not the same guy as he was. It’s not always his fault, but some of it is, unless you want to take all responsibility away from him. so no he’s not mostly the same QB. He had a decent second half yesterday and hopefully he continues that, but that’s the first time we’ve seen that kind of ball from him in a long time.
He was playing at an elite level against SF and was driving the ball well vs Denver. I absolutely blame the coaching staff for all things wrong with this offense moreso than just him. The red zone stalls are improving as the coaching also gets more experience and the line stabilizes. and all this improvement goes away as soon as the league adjusts to it/scouts for it. Hopefully the OC is smart enough to realize it as he trained under guys who know how to revamp a playbook and adjust to the adjustments… even more so than the Slowick/Baby Shan coaching pedigree.
We’re just gonna have to agree to disagree if you’re thinking he’s playing at an elite level at any point in this season, but that’s OK
Given where this offense was, and still is in many aspects (getting ridiculously unprepared/sloppy formation penalties last game… having to become totally risk averse at the end of half’s given this line’s still inability to protect for the deep ball)… and the continued play-calling woes in the red zone or short yardage that have only recently seen some new wrinkles thrown in…. I’ll take all solid/elite performances by a 24 year old QB that had every reason to get ruined after the debacle of play-calling last year and the line shuffling (and again inexperienced OC) this year. And it was your words that his second half yesterday was the “best he’s looked” in a long time… which has been soundly refuted with numbers. The offense will never look completely dominant because they’re not as good at any aspect of the game as they were 2 years ago (protection, running, blocking, penalties, RZ effieicny). Its a group effort but Stroud is by far the “biggest reason” for it (given their continued ineptitude in all these facets in games started by Mills). But ignoring every solid game from this year and last year would be an easy way to try and duck out of this conversation (including your not believing in “metrics”… or now just using the preverbial “agree to disagree”)
Depends on if CJ shows improvement over the rest of this year whether I would extend CJ. I'm sure the McNair's will extend CJ. The issues with the offense are shared between CJ/Caley and the OL, although the OL has improved lately. Do you think that improvement has improved because Mills is making the protection calls? BTW, CJ's getting better at making these calls.
So CJ's looked like he did his rookie year? OK, no need to further this discussion. My eyes tell me differently.
1. I think you give Bobby more credit than he deserves. 2. I would strongly disagree with your assertion that Mills can give you mid-tier QB play. To answer your question: I don’t know what the number will be, but yes, I’d extend CJ. I think he’s easily the best QB in the division and as long as we have him and DeMeco we will be favorites in the AFC south and routinely in the playoffs. And then once you get in the playoffs anything can happen.
I don't know if this is connected or not, but CJ was being interviewed and mentioned needing to flatten out a throw to give his receiver (I think it was X) room to work. Then I looked at his interception and noticed he split the DBs, but the receiver ran his route flatter or more sharply toward the sideline. Could something as simple as route adjustment turn a spectacular reception into an ugly interception? Was CJ thinking about this play?
It's almost like Stroud is playing with a rookie OC & 2 rookie wide receivers & a rookie running back Did I mention the offensive line? No more Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell or Joe Mixon Could he play better? Sure but given the circumstances, he's been very dependable
I just wonder how many first time play-callers have immediate success? I know not all first time OCs are inexperienced as play-callers.
1. Maybe 2. He was mid tier with a clutch gene in his last 3 starts. 3. Fair take although if CJ doesn't show more than he's shown this season then there's no way I would pay him that kind of money for a chance in the playoffs. Gotta be to top 5 QB to get paid like that IMHO.
So you just let him walk? That’s not really how this works. You sound like the Louisiana governor ignorantly proclaiming that LSU isn’t going to give out any more bad contracts to coaches. CJ, by any eye test or objective metric is a top 15 qb and really probably rates higher than that, not to mention age and unfilled potential. He’s going to get paid. I feel a lot better about that than I would for say, Trevor Lawrence, or Derek Carr, or any of these other jamokes that at one point were overpaid.
In his last four full starts - minus Seattle: 97/129 (75%); 1,1071 yards; 8 TDs; 2 INTs; 8.3 YPA. He did not complete 75% of his passes in '23 and his YPA was 8.2. I'm fine with any dismissal of these numbers as a) a small sample size; b) cherry-picked - they're both. But you people are living in an alternate reality claiming CJ hasn't been good, generally, or as good as he was in '23, or not as good as Mills at this or that... He's played 8 full games, and four of his last five have been uber-elite, statistically, and the team is 4-1. And at no point would anyone argue he's hitting his ceiling, especially with the OL and the play caller getting significantly better (much of that coming when CJ was out) since those first three weeks.
Cool so we let CJ walk and then what. We go hunting for a QB in the draft, but we would also have to bottom out in order to get a high enough draft position in order to get one of those franchise QBs (who might bust anyway). Okay so then we'd have to trade all of our defensive players because we'd win too much with them. Say bye to WAJ, Hunter, Sting. Why have them if your goal is to tank for a QB in the draft? Oh you mean you don't want to do that? All right then, welcome to the Vikings, Colts territory. You are good enough to be mediocre, you just have to take flyers every year on backups like Darnold and Daniel Jones. Oh you mean Colts are looking to extend Daniel Jones? That's great. Mac Jones is looking for a payday too. OR, you can be like Minnesota and let Darnold go all while going with JJ, see how that worked out. even if you are Seattle, do you seriously think with that o-line, that weapons, that CJ wouldn't be better than Darnold? I don't think the "let's not extend CJ" crowd has really thought this true, at all.
Seattle weapons? Nico and JSN are a wash. They don’t have a TE. They have a better starting RB, but he’s not an upper tier back. The Texans line has been average this season by virtually every metric. And no, there’s nothing that says CJ would be better than Darnold. They’re similarly skilled players. Darnold probably having a bit better physical attributes. Stroud has the youth
It’s very easy to cherry pick stats. It works both ways, if you take away the Baltimore game against the worst defense in the league at that time, CJ has been at best average. He’s shown flash throws and plays in almost every game, at the same time he’s made some of the dumbest decisions and terribly inaccurate throws in the same game. Ultimately, CJ looks like he’s an upper tier game manager type QB. In the mold of Goff, Dak, Cousins. He doesn’t have the athletic ability to shoulder a team. His anticipation and accuracy were looking like he could maybe get to a Matt Ryan, Stafford level his rookie season have become so inconsistent it’s hard to see that level being reached.
In his last five full starts: 120/178 (67%); 1,300 yards; 7.3 YPA, 7.27 ANY/A; 9 TDs; 3 INT. If he was playing at that pace for all 12 games - and hopefully, we can all agree, with a new play caller and new OL they did not have figured out, those first 3 games are, mostly, not terribly relevant - here would be Stroud's (on pace) rankings: 3,120 yards - 4th 22 TD - 5th 7.27 ANY/A - 7th 99.8 passer rating - 10th (tied with Josh Allen) 67% comp % - 10th 7.3 YPA - 12th 1.7 INT% - 16th - not great but a) above league average (2.1) + better than: Lamar, Prescott, Nix, Herbert and Allen. 14-win pace And you're wondering if they should extend *that* guy?
