I left off Correa and was thinking Yordan and Hader's contracts were one year shorter. But I don't think the end analysis is different. And I think you're including very unproven players and journeymen who don't factor into anything. The combined 2025 WAR of Salazar, Allen, Dezenzo, Whitcomb, Trammell, Cole, Melton is 0.4. Salazar is 30, Trammell is 28, Allen is 27, Whitcomb is 27. I'm afraid they are all journeymen at this point and don't move the needle. Melton, Cole, Dezenzo are 25 and time will tell. Arrighetti has been bad so far in his career and he's the 2nd SP you listed. Blanco's already 32 and hurt - is he even pitching for us in a few years? Is he healthy? We got 6 OK starts from Wesneski before he went down. 9 from Walter, who has no resume to fall back on. Alexander is 32 already and a journeyman. All these guys got hurt and may or may not return to their OK-ness. Gordon is just bad. Ullola hasn't figured out how to avoid walks at AAA yet and hasn't pitched yet in MLB. Bullpens are notoriously volatile - Hader, sure. Sousa came out of nowhere at 30 to have a great season, can he repeat? Are we counting on him into his mid-30s? King has been good for like a season and a half and is 28, but I don't think you can predict either as a key bullpen guy for the next three seasons. I hope they can be. Blubaugh is a prospect that I think is in the rotation for the next few years. The rest of those guys you listed are just roster filler. Adding to the above, I think in the "team dips in 26 and 27 to come back and make a run in 28" scenario we're discussing, guys like Yordan, Brown, and especially Hader (already 31) are likely trade candidates during down years. You get better value for them earlier rather than waiting until their collective walk seasons. But even if that doesn't happen, and somehow they field exactly the team you listed above in 28, it's unlikely to be above .500. Missing proven corner IF (and Altuve should be DHing), an unproven OF, and a weak rotation even with Brown as your ace. My premise is that we're better off trying to win now than hoping for some turn around in a couple seasons, and I stand by that.
My point is that we could compete in 26 without blowing up our slowly improving farm system. In 28, we would have more money and more prospects available to trade. If we miss all of 27 then their current contracts get extended to 28. If we trade a bunch of our top prospects or Pena, we will be going all in this year and will be in a much weaker position to make trades in 27 and 28. People don’t take into account the historic amount of injuries we endured last year.
I get what you are saying but your facts are completely wrong. 28 of the 40 players currently on the roster are controlled through 2028 or later. You said Hunter and Blugaugh are the only rotation members who will remain but Alexander, Arrighetti, Blanco, Walter, Wesneski as well as France and Ullola still have control. You said the entire bullpen is gone but only Abreu, Okert, De Los Santos and Pearson will be. Losing 30% of the 40 man in 2 years is pretty standard. And many of the players currently on the roster are young and should improve for which you had no consideration. Your point was just pessimistic and meaningless trolling that I fell for.
I don’t know that a missed season extends all contracts. Have we ever seen that before in any sport? Like it may extend arbitration or free agent ability but would it extend a signed contract? It’s just an academic question to me since I don’t think any stoppage extends a full year. At any rate, I don’t think it’s impossible to compete next year without trading away assets. But I think the championship possibility is higher say next year than in 28. And that’s based on the value I think our prime and post-prime players have now, compared to a few years from now. It’s my belief in our current roster strength and desire to capitalize on what window remains. But we absolutely need to fill holes next year to get there, the primary one being a #2 starter.
You’re being a pedantic asshat. I explained my point but you’d rather “well actually” me than listen. There are lots of players on the roster, but not lots of meaningful contributors. You listed a bunch of replacement level guys and act like I forgot them when I was making a point about star-level talent. There are guys that will improve and guys that will regress, but listing players like JP France and Taylor Trammell isn’t the flex you think it is. We can disagree with each other without ascribing it to “trolling”. Touch grass.
@SamCassell I apologize for the trolling remark. You are absolutely right. We can disagree without me turning asshat.
There's nothing in this post about star level players. You basically said everyone is gone, except Altuve, Diaz, Brown, Blubaugh and "the rookies from this season" I pointed out that 28 of the 40 players still on the roster including Yordan, Correa, Hader, Javier, Arrighetti, Sousa, King and others that you stated were gone are, in fact, not gone. I agree with you that this team needs an injection of talent to continue to compete in the near future. However I firmly believe it will happen with a combination of internal and external improvements. You just used inaccurate information to make your point so I corrected you. I should have left it there. I had no reason to continue. We are all human. My bad.
From Ken Rosenthal’s Athletic article this AM: Astros’ Meyers drawing interest Few quality center fielders are available in either free agency or trade, triggering interest in players who might be pried loose from other clubs. The Houston Astros’ Jake Meyers, coming off a modest offensive breakout last season, is one such player. MLB Trade Rumors projects Meyers to earn $3.5 million in the first of his two remaining years of club control. The Astros are open to moving him for a controllable major-league starter, according to people briefed on their discussions. And the interest in Meyers entering his age-30 campaign is considerable, other clubs say. The Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets and Rays are among the teams exploring upgrades in center field, along with the Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks and Kansas City Royals. Meyers is an excellent defender. But if the Astros are skeptical of him replicating his offensive performance, they perhaps could get similar production from Zach Cole and/or Jacob Melton. Meyers appeared in only 104 games last season due to right calf issues. His .292 batting average and .727 OPS were significant improvements over his four seasons, even if only slightly above average when adjusted to his park and league. In nearly 1,200 prior career plate appearances, he batted .228 with a .662 OPS
MLB will announce the official payroll numbers for 2025 today. Cots contracts estimates Astros over by $3.56M Spotrac estimates them over by $3.68M Fangraphs estimates them under by $2.78M They sure haven't acted like it happened, but if they somehow managed to squeak under then it is a huge boon to the team. They get a better draft pick for losing Framber They have a smaller penalty if they sign a player with a Q.O. They reset all penalties so should be free to spend more in 2026. I'm waiting anxiously.
I think it’s gonna be a busy next 2 weeks. Swap Meyers for a #4 SP, get a backup C in the Rule 5, use the ~$30M in open payroll to buy a ToR SP and a 7th inning RP (Weiss?). Opening day roster: SS Pena DH Paredes LF Alvarez 3B Correa 2B Altuve 1B Walker RF Sanchez C Diaz CF Cole Bench: Matthews, TBD (Willems?), Allen, Trammell SP: Brown, TBD (Kelly?), Javier, TBD (Pepiot?), Arrighetti, Pearson RP: Hader, Abreu, Weiss, Sousa, King, Okert, McCullers Optioned: Salazar, Dezenzo, Whitcomb, Melton, Smith, Blubaugh, Gordon, Ullola, France, Murray, VanWey IL: Blanco, Wesneski, Walter DFA/Traded: Meyers, De Los Santos, Alexander, Ort
Yeah - it is all going to come down to value. The Astros are open to trading a LOT of players, but not just to trade them, they will trade them for what they view as value. I am glad there is solid interest in Meyers. They have tried to move him for a few seasons now and couldn't even get a reliever for him in the past. Now they want a starting pitcher under team control and think they will get one. Melton looked lost last year, but the glove and arm and base running threat was all legitimate. Maybe they figure he can be a three win player with some more seasoning. I personally thought Cole looked better, and Matthews can play there as well. I will be surprised if all three of Cole, Melton and Matthews are still on the Astros as the Astros want to add a corner outfielder that can start. If all three are still on the Astros, that tells me that they did not get strong enough interest for them. Getting a top of the rotation starter is going to be hard - as it always is.
Fangraphs appears to have updated their service time and options info on their player pages, and they show JP France and Jason Alexander as still having an option remaining. That gives those 2 guys a much better chance of staying on the roster. Kaleb Ort is out of options and seems to be the next guy on the chopping block if a roster spot is needed. The moves Houston is making like adding Pearson and Weiss and guaranteeing money to De Los Santos has me thinking they do not expect McCullers to be on the roster much longer.
2 things are keeping me very optimistic about this offseason: 1. The versatility and depth of Houston’s position player roster should allow them to follow the market and get good value on whatever players they move. That didn’t get reflected in letting Urias and Dubon go but I think it will be reflected in any future moves. 2. The primary hole in the roster plays to the front office’s strengths. They have a long record of knowing which pitchers to target so the fact that their main need is a playoff caliber SP is a good thing. Nobody considered Kikuchi or Cole or Morton an ace when Houston acquired them but that’s exactly what they pitched like. Houston is unlikely to add anyone who is currently considered a bonafide ace, but I will bet the over on the outcome of whatever guys they do add.
Before 2025, Jake was a 2 WAR player. 2.1 bWAR per 500 PAs 1.9 fWAR per 500 PAs That was with a wRC+ of 86, exceptional defense and power and baserunning that don't stand out. Melton, Cole, and/or Matthews all have the ability to provide much better power and baserunning. They may not be as good as Meyers with the glove but by all accounts should be at least average and with a better throwing arm. Even if they have the same 85-86 wRC+, the better power and more impactful baserunning should allow them to have a similar WAR for 3 more years of MLB minimum salary. One or two may fail and need to be kept in AAA but with three options, it is very likely that this is the 2026 floor for at least one of them. And all 3 have tools and potential to be 4+ WAR players by the time they make it to arbitration. Meyers was a 3 WAR player in 2025 3.1 bWAR per 500 PAs 3.0 fWAR per 500 PAs. I think that's his ceiling. In order to improve his OB% and OPS+ to above average, he had to sacrifice all his power. He also took extra bases and scored on balls in play much less often than in 2024. This tells me he has possibly settled into a "play it safe" type of player which is the only way he can be remain viable and keep his career now that he is into arbitration. Trade him if he has any reasonable value. The floor for his replacement is not much lower than his projection but wuth a much higher ceiling and cheaper salary.
Yes, the Astros have a lot of potential moving parts - basically they can trade almost anyone and shift someone else into that position on the infield. They also have a number of MLB ready players in the outfield and some young pitching that will appeal to some teams. That should allow the Astros to avoid bad trades and to maximize their return. I know that they want to improve the offense, and they want a corner outfield bat from the left side that is average or better and they wouldn't mind adding someone like Arraez if they can move off of Walker. However, they should have lots of in house pieces if they don't get another nice bat. So there is less pressure there. I think your second point is well stated. The Astros are good at not only coaching pitching, but identifying pitchers with talent. That should allow the Astros to target some guys that other teams overlook. I know that there is still strong interest in Eflin by the Astros and Rays. He isn't an exciting name, but he has upside and wins. Getting him also opens up the chance that the Astros trade for someone like Rassmussen that isn't an innings horse, but is dominant - his lack of innings can be offset by someone like Eflin.
3 quick ideas: NYM: Kodai Senga (Mets eat money) BAL: Dean Kremer TBR: Ryan Pepiot (Astros add a prospect along with Meyers) KCR: Kris Bubic PHI: Taijuan Walker (Phillies eat money and add a prospect) ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez (Diamondbacks eat a ton of money)
I haven't asked around in several weeks - so I don't know. However, if I had to hazard a somewhat educated guest, it is not going to be a guy that 95% of fans are going to have heard of. Getting a pitcher under team control, and is a starter is a high ask, so it will likely not be someone very accomplished. They will likely be a mediocre innings eater with a track record of good health or they will be a "sleeper" that has issues, be they injuries or performance related that the Astros think they can "fix" and get success out of them. With the Astros potential offense, their defense and projected bullpen - a starting pitcher with an era of 4 that goes 6 innings, 30 times out would likely lead to the Astros having a good record in his starts. A high-end outcome could be something like Ryan Pepiot with the Astros attaching more than just Meyers. Maybe someone like Cade Povich.
Senga would be a nice outcome - he supposedly recently said he wants to stay in NYC, which I find odd because they want to move him.
I just read on mlb.com that official numbers will be announced tomorrow not today. I've had the date wrong and circled on my calendar for a month. Sorry.
