It’s bargain basement as far as mid-level guys go…. You’re wishing/hoping they can unlock or find somebody and elevate them, and that really hasn’t happened with any of the acquisitions (since Luhnow?). In fact most of the FA signings have ultimately dissapointed as there’s a reason why those category/tiers of players are available. Again, ideal for a team just needing a little bit more…. Not really all that earth-shattering for a team with this many question marks.
I don’t really disagree with most of that. My disagreement was with the comment that they have no money to do anything of quality. They do. They just have to be smart. The track record on $200M+ deals is worse than on $20M-$50M deals. They have some money. They can’t just go out and buy the top free agent at each area of need. But they have enough money/prospects to fill out their roster and be a legitimate contender. If they’re smart.
They need impact players to be true contenders. They don’t have the money (or the prospects) to get impact players. The collective fan base still doesn’t compute how big a loss Framber will be for a team that already has limited options on starting pitching or simply lacking guys that can throw a fair amount of average innings (let alone dominating ones). Even when over-achieving last year, they were only truly impactful in that stretch when Framber (and Brown) couldn’t lose. Their lineup needs upgrades as well and that’s presuming the oft-injured guys don’t get injured… but none of it will matter without elite-level pitching, and I don’t expect them to magically find that in the baragain bin. Maybe a prospect will over-achieve (till they get injured).
As much as it pains me to admit it... we are on the same page. The story that the Astros are determined to stay under the luxury tax ruined the off-season for me. We don't have the prospects to land a top tier pitcher when we have to compete with the other teams out there to make a trade, and now we don't have the money to get a top of the rotation pitcher in free agency. As happy as I was about the Correa trade considering we gave up nothing and the Twins ate 33 million... it looks like a bad deal now if we don't get a number 2 starter. It made sense... replace the injured Paredes with Correa, Yordan was coming back, Luis Garcia was supposed to be back, Arrighetti was back, etc. Then the injuries just kept coming with Hader, Garcia, Arrighetti, Ort, Sousa, etc, etc, etc.... This sucks.
$200,000,000 is actually what he supposedly expected to get. Regardless of his numbers last year, a number of teams (including the Astros) had him at the top of their wish list. I get that he has multiple time Cy Young stuff, but paying $30,000,000 a season for close to a decade is too much to swallow for me personally.
Astros are honestly starting to become a mediocre run franchise. Giving Espada this job was questionable, keeping him is crazy Why resign Altuve at his age to that deal of you aren't gonna put pieces around him Why sign Walker if that closes your spending window Why sign Hader? Crane is either giving mixed signals, is impulsive and too hands on or too confident on what this team is.
Who overachieved last year? The team dramatically underachieved last season, across the board, except for Pena and Brown. A lot of that was injuries. Almost none of it looks to be age. So almost everyone should be expected to perform better this season. What do you consider an “impact” player? I would wager that Houston will add at least one player who puts up at least 3 fwar in 2026. Houston currently projects as the 12th best team in the league. But they’re only 5 wins below the 4th best team. At ~$10M/win, they can be expected to make up half of that with free agent signings. The rest will have to come from the farm or upside performance. If what you are saying is true, then it sounds like you’re really just saying it’s time to rebuild.
I don't see a world where the Astros don't bring in a guy they expect to be able to start a postseason game. But what kind of contract/control depends on the pitchers currently in the organization. Do they feel that Arrighetti, Javier, Wesneski, Blanco, Walter, or any of the guys who are still rookies/prospects project to be a #2 or better by 2027? If so then trade for a guy with 1 or 2 years left. If they feel they are all just a bunch of #3s and #4s then it must beva guy for 3+ years. The CBT is a huge hurdle, IMO It is very likely they went over the 1st threshold for a 2nd year in a row last season ( not certain. We will know Monday) As such, if they sign Suarez, King, or Gallen they lose the pick after the 1st rd they got for Hunter finishing 3rd in CY as well as their 4th rd pick and lose $1M in international FA money. The pick for Framber signing elsewhere is also after 4th rd instead of after the 2nd. I think they need to leave these 3 pitchers alone and find their #2 via trade. Mackenzie Gore is still #1 on my list, but I'm warming to the idea of Kris Bubic who would be a rental but much cheaper. Others I think would be good: Freddy Peralta, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Emmett Sheehan. There really aren't many guys with #2 stuff who are/could be available. And Cease and Gray were 2 if them. It's musical chairs
Crane's MO is to land some high upside guys during the off season while maintaining some cap flexibility for the trade deadline. If we are 1 or 2 guys away at the deadline, they will cash their chips. I think part of what got Click fired was that he didn't cash the chips when Crane wanted him to.
Astros won 87 games in 2025 with 20.8 fwar on offense and 18 fwar in pitching. They currently project for 26.5 fwar on offense and 12.9 fwar on pitching. They are losing a net of 2.5 fwar on offense (mostly Dubon) and a net of 5 fwar on the pitching staff (mostly Framber and Gusto). They will more than make up the loss on offense from having Yordan healthy and having Correa for a full season. They will get back 2-3 fwar from having Javier and Arrighetti healthy. They need to add another 3-4 pitching war. Betting markets currently have Houston with the 3rd highest odds of winning the AL.
these stats are nice but if players are inconsistent then it mutes it. For instance. Three players go on a 10 game binge and hit like crazy (going 8-2 in that span) then the next 10 games two digress (going 3-7). Their average fwar may look really good but our winning % is still barely above .500. That's what our offense is like. It's way too inconsistent to win a division the way our roster is now (unless the other teams in our division all flat out suck). And this doesn't even include our pitching aspect of it.
What about Merrill Kelly? Since 2022 he's been pretty consistent and outside of 2024, healthy. Also has done well under pressure in the post season. Projected 2 year deal sounds about right for the Astros timeline as well (maybe 2/$30) Him or Ranger Suarez seem to be the main targets I'd be interested in with Suarez around 4/$100. I'd take him over Cease any day. Brown Suarez Kelly who cares who cares I'm good with that SP lineup if we got both and kept our batting similar. If we make it to the post season those 3 could lock it down themselves.
Kelly would be fine but I certainly would not be HAPPY HAPPY but the options aren't very plentiful. Neither Kelly nor Suarez strike hitters out at an above average rate, and that is what is needed in the post season. So neither would be my choice. Suarez is a resounding "No" from me because he has the Q.O. attached to him and he simply doesn't have the "stuff" to justify the loss of draft picks and international money.
Suarez is 4-1 with 1.70 ERA in 11 post season games. I'm not worried about him at all. And Kelly also has nice post season stats at 2-1 with 2.65 ERA in 4 games. (19k in 17 innings and 0.833 WHIP)
Thats fine. We all have our opinions. I just feel that quality of stuff is a better predictor for future success than past results are. And both Suarez and Kelly get by on "pitchability" more than stuff. Just like Urquidy did when he had so much postseason success. To me both are better as #3s than #2s.
I would still take them over nothing, unless they have a legitimate reason to expect Javier to return to 2022 levels and Arrighetti back to 2024, they Really need quality arms, but am hopeful for a true difference maker. My top 5 realistic hopefuls 1) Mackenzie Gore 2) Joe Ryan 3) Freddy Peralta 4) Kris Bubic 5) Pablo Lopez
