STOCK MARKET: Let's talk stocks and investing

Sajan · Nov 14, 2025

Mango said: ↑

I am not sure if this is what you are referring to, but it does seem to be in a nearby neighborhood if it isn't.

Will CoreWeave's Heavy Debt Load Disrupt Its Growth Momentum?

CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) recently reported third-quarter 2025 results wherein revenues surged 134% year over year to $1.4 billion, surpassing both management’s guidance ($1.26 billion and $1.3 billion) and the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.8%. Yet, as CRWV expands at breakneck speed, investors seem wary of its mounting debt.

On the earnings call, management noted that the company has raised a staggering $14 billion in debt and equity year to date. CoreWeave is using these funds for the rapid expansion of its GPU-based data center, which is crucial to address the soaring AI compute demand. It added eight new data centers across the United States in the third quarter. Further expansions are underway in Europe, including Scotland. CRWV had nearly 590 megawatts (“MW”) of active power and contracted power of 2.9 gigawatts (“GW”) at the quarter-end. With more than 850 MW of active power targeted by year-end, CRWV is positioning itself as a top-tier provider capable of meeting the needs of large-scale AI training and inference workloads.

Though increasing capital is enabling CRWV to accelerate data-center investments and meet surging AI demand, it is adding financial strain. Interest expense surged to $311 million compared with $104 million a year ago. For 2025, it expects interest expenses to be between $1.21 billion and $1.25 billion, owing to high leverage. Higher interest expenses can exert pressure on the adjusted net income and potentially affect free cash flow generation and undermine near-term profitability. Adjusted net loss for the third quarter was $41 million against breakeven adjusted net income a year ago.

Management is working to mitigate financing risk by strengthening capital structure and lowering the cost of capital. For instance, the company amended the DDTL 2.0 Facility by increasing its remaining drawable capacity by more than $400 million to create a new $3 billion tranche at SOFR plus 4.25%. This is much below the original cost of the facility. Management emphasized that it continues to reduce spreads on the outstanding debt, capitalizing on strong market demand for AI infrastructure exposure.

Nonetheless, whether this funding proves to be a growth driver or a leverage headache will depend on CoreWeave’s execution, which does not look easy. Challenges for CRWV remain plenty as it juggles ballooning interest expense, heavy capex (2026 to be more than double of the figure of 2025) and intense competition from rivals like pure-play Nebius (NBIS) and tech behemoths like Microsoft (MSFT), which are also aggressively ramping up capacity

Capacity Expansion & Debt Profile for MSFT & NBIS
Nebius is another rapidly growing AI infrastructure company. In the third quarter, Nebius's group revenues increased by 355% year over year to $146.1 million, with the core infrastructure segment (making up 90% of total revenues) growing by 400%. Nebius plans to fund its aggressive expansion through corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity. Management highlighted that it is in the process of raising asset-backed debt and expects to secure attractive credit terms supported by the creditworthiness of its biggest client.

Nebius is also implementing an at-the-market equity program for up to 25 million Class A shares. NBIS added that the program will enable it to access equity funding efficiently. It targets 800 MW to 1 GW of connected power by the end of 2026 and 2.5 GW of contracted power.

Microsoft plans to boost its total AI capacity by more than 80% for this fiscal year and double its total data center footprint over the next two years, underpinned by strong demand trends. MSFT’s AI data center in Fairwater, WI, is expected to go online next year and can scale to two gigawatts alone.

Microsoft’s financial resources are stupendous. As of Sept. 30, 2025, it had $102 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, while long-term debt was $35.4 billion. Microsoft’s global scale, strategic partnerships and financial resilience offer some serious competition. MSFT expects the capex growth rate in fiscal 2026 to be higher than in fiscal 2025.

CRWV Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Shares of CoreWeave have lost 36.3% over the past month compared with the Internet Software industry’s decline of 6.8%.

In terms of Price/Book, CRWV’s shares are trading at 15.71X, way higher than the Internet Software Services industry’s ratio of 6.15X,

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRWV’s earnings for 2025 has been marginally revised downwards over the past 60 days....

Click to expand...

CoreWeave Sounds the Alarm: Demand For AI Far Exceeds Capacity

I was up on shares. Now down.
To catch a falling knife or no....hmm.

adoo · Nov 14, 2025

Space Ghost said: ↑

The market is taking legends away. First Buffet, now Burry.
Click to expand...

just to be clear, the 90+ yr-old Buffet retired and named his successor who has been with the company for the last ~~5 years.

Burry closed his fund. fwiw,

The $500 Billion Reason Nvidia Stock Will Show
Bearish Billionaire Michael Burry Who Is Boss

between July and Sep 2025, Burry bought 1 million Nvidia put options with the underlying stock valued at $186.6 million
at the end of Q3. Options (calls and puts) are commonly sold in contract sizes of 100 shares of the underlying stock,
so Burry purchased 10,000 Nvidia put contracts.

In Oct 2025, NVDA CEO announced " We have visibility into a half a trillion dollars of cumulative Blackwell and early ramps
of Rubin through 2026. ... So, next 5 quarters, there is a half a trillion dollars [of demand].

it appears that Burry saw the writing on the wall

Plowman · Nov 18, 2025

delete

adoo · Nov 19, 2025 at 6:34 PM

7 nov

adoo said: ↑

when NVDA was trading 179.6 today, i purchased this 20-point bullish CALL spread, using 11-28-'25 expiration

buy to open 180 strike CALL

sell to open 200 strike CALL

for a net cost of $7.3

i think it will trend up to the high $190s, just before the earnings release.
i am paying ~~ 4.1% of current stock price to participate in the anticipated run up into earnings.
i am paying ~~ 4.1% of current stock price to participate in the anticipated run up into earnings.
according to the attendant "greeks', for every point going up, my position will increase ~ 30 cents
Click to expand...

had a "blow-out" earnings call after Market closing---beating all metrics/raising guidance---NVDA is popping after hours, trading ~194

Ziggy · Nov 21, 2025 at 3:34 PM

Weird 2 days. Suspicious even.

Sajan · Nov 21, 2025 at 3:37 PM

Ziggy said: ↑

Weird 2 days. Suspicious even.
Click to expand...

Yesterdays rug pull. suspicious for sure.
what does someone know...

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