If you're talking about the last game against Orlando you must be talking about Sengun in regards to those long 2s. The only players besides him and KD to attempt a shot between the paint and the 3 point line was Jabari (one attempt) and Amen (2 attempts, one of which was because the shot clock was expiring). And Sengun could at least hit them, going 3/7. Orlando's defense deserves a lot of credit for stifling our offense for most of the game. I'm going to give Sengun a lot of leeway in terms of shot selection as he plays large portions of the game next to Amen and Adams, who aren't floor spacers. The paint is crowded which makes finishing tougher, but at least they're grabbing offensive rebounds off their misses. Launching 40 threes a game with them and Sengun on the floor (and Tari now out) is a lofty, probably unrealistic goal. Until Sengun becomes a sniper, which could happen soon, I'm totally fine with him operating in the mid and low post. And I don't think you're factoring in personnel. KD has never been a high volume 3 point shooter, he loves the midrange. We didn't ask CP3 to eliminate the midrange attempts in the Moreyball era, I doubt we ask KD to change his shot diet when he's already so efficient. The only person who could possibly scale up the three point attempts to the point you like might be Sheppard.
and crazy stat Clint has more offensive and defensive rebounds per 36 minutes than Steven https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?PerMode=Per36&dir=A&sort=OREB
They shoot a lot of free throws (good!), which helps, but those rankings are mostly bolstered by the team shooting 43% from 3. If they regressed to last year in terms of offensive rebounding and 3 point shooting, they'd be a middle of the pack offense. 125 OTRG to about 117, which puts them exactly where they were last year. They are a better shooting team, so I don't think they'll regress all the way to 35%, but even to 37% puts them at 119, which is actually still top 5, but miles behind Denver and on par with OKC. The team finished 27th in 2PT% last year. I'm aware that replacing Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and FVV, who called their own numbers way too often for their efficiency, with KD and Reed improves the offense by quite a bit. It still looks too similar to last year, stagnant post ups and ISOs, just with better talent. I did explicitly say that I had issue with players not named Kevin Durant shooting midrange in volume.
No one on the team outside of KD is shooting the midrange in volume. I'm watching the games and can see the shot charts on Basketball Reference. Could you be specific and name which players are taking too many midrange shots? You said there's no reason not to launch at least 40 threes a game. That is simply not realistic for this roster. This isn't the 17-18 Rockets where the offense was spread out and Harden and EGo could launch 20 by themselves. We're not changing KD's shot diet so who's going to take them? Jabari, Sengun, Amen, Adams, Okogie? That's why I said only Sheppard could realistically scale up his shooting and he's already leading the team in attempts. No one else can easily take more.
Offensive rating is naturally correlated with the most common type of shot, the 2pt, percentage. If you look at shot by distance metrics, we are actually one of the best teams from long 2pt shots, thanks to KD. For the close to the rim part we are not good. But we get the boards. So these are the two sides of the coin of having Adam’s, amen and Sengun. Trade shooting for rebounding. I think it is sustainable for the regular season. But good teams/coaches will easily figure things out in the playoffs. We are way too stagnant as you said. Also our whole playbook is scripted, something that doesn’t belong to this era. That’s why we don’t get many 3 pt shots and are easy to defend generally without effort. We focus on the main action and only to it. The other 3/4 players are not utilized. We don’t have secondary options. And that will be a huge problem in the playoffs.
Kevin Durant and Reed Sheppard are putting up 10.4 3s a game shooting 40% and 48% respectively. Jabari is shooting another 5.4 attempts at a 37% clip. KD's is actually low. Not sure where Reed ends up. I feel like Jabari's is low as well. We replaced two (3 if you count Dillon) of the chuckiest chucksters in the league and gave their shots to Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant and Jabari Smith Jr. Its (probably) sustainable.
Sengun shooting 45% and Tari shooting 50% from 3, along side Holiday and Okokge shooting 46%, which adds up to 12.6 3s a game combined, is not sustainable. Jabari is actually shooting a career high from 3, he's been much more underwhelming as a shooter than most people here realize. I don't think this is a bad 3 point shooting team, not by any means, but it's not the best three point shooting team of all time by percentage. Regression to a merely elite 3 point shooting team (38%) shaves over four points off the ORTG of the team. Durant could get to 6, Jabari to 6, and Reed to 9, which would get them to 35, the middle of the pack in 3PA. I'll admit that 40 a game is hyperbolic. From what I can see, the team is rather poor at the mid-range, but more concerningly, the team is very poor at shots in the paint, but not at the rim. The Rockets are 17th in mid range FG% at 38.1%, but are 3rd in attempts at 13.3 a game. Kevin Durant is shooting 49.3% on mid-range on 5.75 attempts per game, so the rest of the team are chucking up horrendous bricks at an unacceptable volume. sources: https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/shooting?DistanceRange=By Zone&dir=D&sort=Mid-Range FGA https://www.nba.com/stats/player/201142/shooting More concerning, the Rockets are 8th in paint field goals attempted but are only shooting 41%, good for 25th in the NBA. Sengun himself is only shooting 44% from 3-10 feet this year, which is in line with what he shot last year, and a sad departure from his 3rd season where he shot nearly 50%. https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/sho... Zone&dir=D&sort=In The Paint (Non-RA) FG PCT At the rim, they're 8th in attempts and 17th in percentage. This should sort itself out as Amen and Alperen return to their career norms at finishing at the rim. In conclusion, they're shooting quite a few shots from 3 feet - 3 point range and they're not good at it, and it's going to rear it's ugly head when the 3 point shooting cools off and if the offensive rebounds cool off. Especially come April and May where teams don't give up easy boards.
Is there a particular reason why we think that the mid-range and paint FGs might not also see some positive regression closer to the mean that would offset the 3pt% and OREB% regressing back to within the bounds of historical norms? I don't disagree with the idea that the way they are playing is unsustainable and historically unprecedented, but if the sample size is still small enough that they can produce such an outlier in one aspect of the game, it would seem equally likely that they could also simply be in the midst of a downswing in other areas, and we can expect natural improvement in those areas, even if it's some more modest gains.
One of the things I've noticed about Adams is his ability to create a pseudo screen as he positions for a rebound. He will time it perfectly so that he wipes out the defender coming to help while sealing off his own defender. Clear path for the drive. Out on the perimeter that would be a moving screen. In the paint, it's a 'where am I suppose to go, mate?' Not everyone can be so sneaky about it. It's unique like Sabonis' style to set a screen.
While the below are notable players, it's not really notable that they're injured. It's actually typical. Anthony Davis Kawhi Leonard Joel Embiid Zion Williamson Ja Morant
Lets not get so confident. So many things can still happen in this long season. I would like to remain humble and not jinx our team. Hopefully @DreamShook can exorcise your post.
