With third level depth, I'm surprised it hasn't happened more. 2003 focus - First level - Starters and Rotation 2004 focus - Second level - Replacement Players on the Active Roster 2005 focus - Third level - Practice Squad and Rolodex Players you wind up needing as the season plays out.
Games vs 500 or better 8 3-5 1. SEA 7-3 Lose by 8 2. LAR 8-2 Lose by 5 8. DEN 9-2 Lose by 3 10. TB 6-4 Lose by 1 13. SF 7-4 Win by 11 15. BAL 5-5 Win by 34 18. JAX 6-4 Lose by 7 18. JAX 6-4 Win by 7 Games vs 500 or better 2 2-0 32. TEN 1-9 Win by 26 32. TEN 1-9 Win by 3 The IMPACT of the schedule. 0-4 against top 10 teams. 3-1 against middle ten teams and 2-0 against bottom 12.
Texans are top 10 in DVOA this year. They tackle Mayfield. Nico doesn’t fumble against Jax Stroud doesn’t get knocked out against Den Texans by all rights should be 8-2 right now if they make just one play. Yes I get it, every team can go back to a play that changed a game… ultimately it’s a good football team that becomes extremely dangerous if Stroud continues to play how he was against Ten/Bal/49’ers/Den or 4/5 games. They can and probably will beat anyone down the stretch with good offensive play.
The only What If... game I'm willing to give the Texans is Tampa Bay. If they sack Mayfield - and they had him - the game ends and they win. Fumbles v Rams and Jags were both huge - but still required us to, you know, score, and as we know, that hasn't always been easy for this team. Broncos game is the unfortunate What If... because, while I believe they win if CJ had stayed healthy, there's just no way of knowing how that game plays out. Stating the obvious but 6-4, beyond the obvious reason (it's better than 5-5!), would be so big right now because it gives you a much wider margin of error. As it currently stands, if they want to make the playoffs, they really have to beat Buffalo, Kansas City and Los Angeles. Even going 2-1 against those three really dampens your prospects.
Mills couldn't get past read 1 in the Broncos game and they had 9 consecutive 3-5 play drives. Stroud would have won them that game easily.
I just can't/won't assume anything with this offense. I *think* they would've won, yeah. But, also: Denver made adjustments to Mills that they would not have made with CJ so who knows what would've happened over the final ~40 minutes? The Tampa Bay game was crossing the finish line; they were literally halfway through the final play - they just didn't close.
