Have to think Caratini would like to start and some team might give him that chance. If the team traded Diaz for pitching, that is only way I think he's back.
You actually have to add years to offers now with the anticipation that they’ll be rehabbing for 1-2 years of it. Crane made that mistake with the first JV contract extension… then ended up having to give up prospects to get him back anyways.
Is it? I think it is in the eye of the beholder. Lowe can play second and a corner outfield spot. He brings an 800 OPS and 30 homer power. He hits from the left side. As for Rasmussen, he has had injury issues, but he is an ace when healthy. 2.84, 2.83, 2.63, 2.81 and 2.76 ...... those are his era's the last 5 years. Also of importance is that the two will only make $17,000,000 combined in 2026 I think if the Astros can get both of them for Diaz, Meyers and a young pitcher or prospect -- the Astros would be silly not to do it. It also doesn't cost the Astros any draft picks like signing someone as a free agent. It also lets the Astros spend assets/money saved on a second starter. The only real concerns I would have would be keeping them healthy.
And in 3 of those seasons Rasmussen didn’t even reach 60 innings. And trading Diaz leaves you without a catcher, you then have to spend resources to find two catchers. I’m not giving up Diaz, who I think has 4 years of club control remaining, a young arm, and an elite defensive CF for one year of Lowe (who has had less WAR than Diaz each of the past three seasons) and two years of an injury prone pitcher.
Both Diaz and Meyers are flawed players. Diaz is coming off of a season where both his bat and defense took a step backward. He was the 21st most valuable C in the league. He has 3 years of control left not 4. He is basically a league average catcher with a plus bat and below average defense; the bat still has some upside but after 3 full seasons what are the odds he gets to it? Meyers is coming off his best season, but prior to this year he was a well below average hitter. His fielding is elite, but that is in spite of him having a very weak arm. He has also been injury prone (partially due to how aggressive he is with his body in CF). He hit only 3 HR this year. Yes, he is quite possibly the best player in the world at tracking and catching baseballs hit to CF, but otherwise he is pretty unremarkable. He was the 10th most valuable CF in the league this year and has 2 years of control remaining. Brandon Lowe is a rental, but projects as a borderline QO candidate. He hit 31 HR this season, more than Diaz and Meyers combined. He was the 14th most valuable 2B this season. You and Nook summed up Rasmussen but he is an injury prone ToR SP. It would be a reasonable trade. I like the trade for the Astros. Rays fans might like it for them.
You may be right. Crane and the Astros have specifically stated long term financial flexibility is a priority and the philosophy. But I think they should amend this idea specifically regarding TOR starters. They do not grow on trees and TJS has nearly 100% recovery rate. Try to keep the AAV under $20M if possible and expect any SP to miss 2 seasons. So, 7/$140M contract with 5 healthy seasons is better than 6/$120M with 4 or 5/$100M with 3.
A 7 year contract is about 5 years too long for the Astros this off season for many reasons in my opinion.
I get it. Many people feel the way you do. I felt that way until recently. The 7 year deal would need to be Hunter Brown THIS offseason. I'm specifically talking about #1s and #2s. #3s or lower, just use their controllable seasons. And #1 or #2s will want more than $20M AAV so it will need to be part of an extension.
I don’t disagree on Diaz and Meyers flawed. I actually hope we can cash in on Jake’s career year this year. But if we’re packaging them with one of our better pitching prospects, I want a hell of a lot more than a league average rental 2B and a pitcher that can’t stay healthy, even if he’s elite when he pitches.
I don’t think Meyers and Diaz have as much value as you think. The Astros for two seasons tried to trade Meyers for a reliever and had no takers. Diaz is a talented hitter that has no approach at the plate and has regressed defensively.
They would look outside the organization for their starting catcher for 2026. It would likely be someone that is defensive oriented and can work well with the staff. The Astros are not exactly thrilled with Diaz' work with the pitchers. There are a couple free agents that are glove first options, but there are also back up catchers on other teams. The idea would be to expend little financial or prospect capital on the position.
Pitching performance and being satisfied with the work that the catcher put in and his command of the staff are not always the same thing. If the Astros don't trade Diaz, he will be the catcher in 2026 - but the person that protected Diaz, and that got him to be more involved in the game plan and execution is now gone. Miller hasn't been as big a fan, and with Murphy gone there are cracks that exist.
# of pitchers who threw >40 ip for the Astros over the last 5 seasons: 2021: 12 2022: 13 2023: 15 2024: 12 2025: 14 # of pitchers who started more than 5 games: 2021: 7 2022: 7 2023: 9 2024: 8 2025: 11 So Houston needs 9 SP they feel good about plus a stacked back end of the BP. Hader, Abreu, Okert, Sousa, and King is a fine start to the bullpen; I am surprised Houston is looking to add anything meaningful there. Their top 9 SP currently project as: Hunter Brown Cristian Javier Spencer Arrighetti Nate Pearson AJ Blubaugh Jason Alexander Colton Gordon Lance McCullers, Jr. Miguel Ullola, JP France, Ethan Pecko, Peter Lambert, Jose Fleury Adding 2 pitchers that slot in front of Javier and pushes McCullers and others further down the list will set this staff up to be very very good, especially with the possibility of Blanco and Wesneski coming back in the 2nd half.
What does Miller think of Caratini? If we trade Diaz, resign Victor and add another vet like Jansen, Vazquez or McCann, wouldn't that be a better approach?
It comes down to have a finite number of resources and money. The Astros like Caratini from everything I have heard, but he is expected to get more money than what the Astros likely would want to play a part time catcher. They can trade marginal prospects for someone like Joey Bart, and pay him $2,000,000 in 2026 to be their catcher. His bat is inconsistent, but he is an improvement defensively, he will actually focus on throwing guys out and spend time building a relationship with the staff. There are a number of guys that are strong with the glove or relationships that don't cost a lot of money that the Astros could target.
James McCann or Elias Diaz or Christian Vasquez would be fine as the everyday C provided the rest of the lineup is very good. None of those guys will get more than like $4M/1yr. But if the Astros could get Joey Bart I think it would be a very good move.
Thanks @Nook, but what I was suggesting is that Victor become the starter, not the backup. Does that change your thoughts?
