They should have 4-5 picks in the top 100 of next years draft. Put that together with Alvarez/Frey/Neyens/Janek and that doesn't even include guys like Matthews/Dezenzo/Melton/Cole in addition to all of the reallt good young pitching. They can afford to sign a guy who has signed his QO IMHO. I know you're a prospect guy, but I see the Stros as a contender if they can hit on a pitcher in FA and another by trade. In addition to adding a LH high OBP bat. This can be done.
The leverage/flexibility you get by having 2 1st rounders (and 5-6 of the top 100) is an order of magnitude better than just having an extra 2nd rounder (which may end up only being an extra 4th rounder if Houston went over the tax last year, we still don’t have clarity on that). I agree with the analysis that the Astros have a very good crop of position player prospects in the lower minors (Neyens, Alvarez, Frey, and some others), but they need to have a transformative draft if they’re going to build the kind of farm system that will keep a window open (or reopen it). I know it’s only one pick, but what it adds to the bonus pool reverberates through the entire draft.
Still a Dana's adding quality to the farm. With 4 more top prospects being drafted the farm isn't as bad as it's made out to be. You're right though the great position players are young and are a few years away from contributing in MLB. All the more reason to not be scared of signing a FA because of the QO.
Once everybody's rosters get shaken out, we should have a FA thread, just a proper list. I can't really tell you who does/doesn't have pick compensation tied to them.
I have seen less about this year’s international class than I ever have. The industry is just not covering it as much. Not sure why. Houston has their full pool which is middle of the pack so they should get at least 1 of the top 30 guys. But I have not seen them linked to anybody major.
Don’t read too much into this article. Unless something has drastically changed in 3-4 weeks, the Astros intend to try and trade for a starting pitcher and look for another one in free agency. With free agency more likely than not involving the lesser of the two pitchers. This can change obviously - if the trade market were to shrink badly or someone as a FA decided they would take less… but that isn’t likely. If anything the market has expanded for pitching.
The one pick they give away isn't why our farm sucks, nothing from the international side and Browns insistence on impressive athletes who have grand canyonesque holes in their swing has been. The Dodgers pick late and give away QO picks every season and have the best farm in baseball. Prospect development flat out hasn't been good the last few years. I've become more convinced with every passing season this flat out isn't a good organization anymore, we're just coasting on the MLB leftovers of when we were. Turning journeyman into functional MLB pitchers is all we seemingly really do well right now, and even that is starting to fail because non of them can take the stress on their arm and get hurt.
The Dodgers had an extra 1st round pick this year. 2 extra picks in 2023. An extra 2nd rounder in 2020. They’ve had net more extra picks than they’ve lost over the last 6 drafts.
Pitching in the Astros minors has been delivering results; position players not so much. Note that the biggest success that the Astros have had with position players was with Tucker, Bregman, Correa and Yordan. 3 of the 4 were top of the draft picks, which the Astros are now a decade away from having. One could argue that the Astros have figured out the secret sauce of creating a steady supply of MLB pitching from their minors. They have not figured out how to develop bats as well. I suspect that the Astros bat development is league average, though.
The Astros haven’t been bad at drafting. You’re not going to get star players picking in the 25-30 range of every round. Korey Lee, Drew Gilbert, and Seth Beer were all about par for where they were picked. All spent some time as fringe top 100 prospects which means their stock went up after being drafted. Gilbert may still end up being a decent player. The other 2 1st round picks the Astros had since the Bregman draft were pitchers (Whitley and Bukauskas), It is too early to judge Dana Brown’s drafts. Brice Matthews would probably be a firm Top 100 prospect had he been promoted more slowly. Walker Janek is showing well in the AFL and will likely start next season in AA with his stock rising. Beyond the 1st round, most of his position player picks are performing at or above expectations relative to their draft/bonus slot. Houston’s farm system sucks because they lost 6 top draft picks over the last 6 drafts and have been drafting at the back of the draft. Simple as that. If you’re picking at the back of the draft, you cannot afford to lose draft picks (and actually should do everything possible to get extra picks) unless you are rich enough to go WAY over the tax to make up for it. If there’s a criticism of Houston’s player development it would be the lack of production of position players from the international side. Dana Brown’s position players who received top 10 round bonuses: 2023: Brice Matthews: fringe Top 100 prospect, vying for a roster spot or could be a significant trade chip Cam Fisher: bust Chase Jaworsky: showed pretty well then got traded for Jesus Sanchez Nehomar Ochoa: derailed by a fish hook to the face Anthony Huezo: coming off a very good year in complex/A ball 2024: Walker Janek: middling first full season but looked good in fall league Caden Powell: coming off good season in A ball Joseph Sullivan: great 1st season 2025: too early to say anything So Brown has 8 guys we can even look at and only 1 bust, a 4th rounder. Everybody else is performing at or above their draft slot expectations.
I spent some time yesterday studying the roster. Looking for a tradeable player or players that might be valuable enough to improve the rotation without destroying the lineup beyond recoverability. I came away believing the best thing the Astros can do is nothing. There are plenty of pitchers in place that have a chance to bolster the pitching staff without trading away assets.
Not so cool story bro, one time around 2009-2011 when Abreu was with the Astros AAA team I went to a game and had seats right on the dugout. During the national anthem Abreu was cutting up and throwing sunflower seeds everywhere. It seemed like he was being intentionally disrespectful. He was within a few feet of me so after the anthem ended I told him “hey man that’s pretty disrespectful to be acting like that during the anthem.” He said **** you. So I said **** you back and he then made a motion like he was going to come up over the dugout toward me. I legit thought I was about to fight him. It was really stupid. Anyway he didn’t actually come over the dugout, and to be fair later in the game he tossed a bunch of kids gum and baseballs and stuff. But still ever since then I have been like “**** Erick Abreu”.
