Question for the salary cap experts. Okogie has been fantastic as an off-ball 3&D guard, but he is an UFA next season - if he continues to play like this, he's in line for a healthy payday. Eason is also playing great as our sixth man and will likely ask for 100m+ if he stays healthy. So the question is: How do we keep both guys? Next season, we have 184m in guaranteed salaries (assuming FVV opts in). FVV's money comes off the next season, but Amen's likely max contract will kick in, pushing out guaranteed salaries to over 200m without Eason and Okogie (assuming we do not waive DFS's non-guaranteed contract). It'll be really tight if we want to keep both guys. Second question - if we had to choose, who would you guys pick? And it's not really just an Eason v. Okogie question, but rather Okogie on a smaller contract + potentially what we can get for Eason v. Eason.
Next year it will depend on the owner’ willingness to expend money, and the teams willingness to accept limitations if we are over the 2nd apron. We can match any offer for Eason, and offer Okogie an exception
If both continue to play well the answer is no. As far as choosing which one, too early. Long way to go.
I'm really liking Okogie, but I'd caution that he has not historically been anywhere close to this good on offense, and nobody is a 60% three point shooter over a large sample size. Clearly a hot start for him, though there may be some significant improvement as well since he's hitting those peak late 20s years.
For me, if we like Okogie, it does become more of an Eason versus DFS question as Okogie fits the team better as a D and 3 perimeter defender who can guard 1-3 while DFS and Tari are more 2-4 defenders. DFS should be tradable with his contract, so I think that will be the decision the team (Tari or DFS) makes this next offseason while trying to sign Okogie to a reasonable 3 year deal. The decision probably won't be made until they know just how much it takes to resign Okogie and Tari.
Of course .6 is unsustainable. But I think it’s a reasonable to believe he’ll continue to be a good 3 point shooter (i.e. .37+).
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a Dillon Brooks type of improvement from him. He's gradually been improving as a shooter over the course of his career.
I've always thought Eason was headed out in a deal for a really good guard. Regardless of the target, I see us managing that downside risk.
If Okogie is a legit good shooter I would hate to let him go. That was the glaring weakness in his game, and if he's turned that weakness into a strength he will be an absolute top tier role player.He's a hound defensively, he will finish at the rim if the opportunity presents itself, good enough handles to bring it up and he just makes very few mistakes in general. At this point in his career he's fully embraced doing everything he can to be that perfect role player. It's funny taking about him and Tari, who is actually kind of the exact opposite of Okogie. Tari is an element of chaos on the floor who has higher highs, but will also leave you with some WTF moments.
Honestly both are expendable. Tari being the most redundant and Okogie being a guy playing at an unsustainable level. Neither are guys you break the bank for.
From a cap perspective, we could keep Tari on a long term deal. But the bigger question is whether Tari would want to be here long-term, when the role we have available to him is as a 24 mpg 7th man. Sengun/KD/Jabari/Amen are all locked in front of him, and we have DFS too. Tari is obviously better than a 7th man. It's totally understandable IMO that he should want to be a featured starter somewhere and have the opportunity to advance his career. I would if I were him. So ultimately I do not think Tari is here long term. He'll be a big piece in a trade at some point. Okogie OTOH is totally dependent on his performance the next 77 games. Minimum role players get hot sometimes; he most likely won't be in the rotation in two months.
I think next season we can offer Okogie full taxpayer MLE (5.8M ish), sign Eason for 20M per, and still have room under the 2nd apron. With a full roster of KD/ Aply/ FVV/ Jabari/ Tari/ DFS/ Adams/ Amen/ Reed/ Clint/ Okogie/ min salary x3 The space under the apron could be around $6M breathing space - which is fairly academic, it just means there is enough space to churn a few minimum salary guys if required (for emergency purposes)
It depends on Amen's contract. Idk if it's worth it to give him the max when he still has such a major weakness to his game. I'm sure Stone will negotiate instead of just giving it to him like some other GMs (Magic/Raptors). If Amen takes something similar to Sengun then we're gonna be just fine when it comes to paying Tari. Just no matter what, we should not hit the 2nd Apron until we're absolutely sure we can win a title with the squad (like OKC paying 3 maxes to their trio). The penalties that come with it are just too harsh when it comes to improving your roster.
I don't think role is the issue with Tari here, it's purely money. For guys coming off rookie contracts, they'll take the highest 5-year dollar amount. If a lesser team wants to buy him because he's the best player they can attract, he's gone.
I haven't dug into the math yet but I think it's quite possible they can retain both, assuming Okogie signs for no more than the Taxpayer version of the MLE ($6,103,000 next offseason). Use of that exception triggers the hard cap at the 2A. They'll have just over $25.4m between their current active salary and the 1A and $38.1m to the 2A with 9 players under contract, Tari and Okogie the only rotation players not under contract. So, you need enough space left under the 2A to sign 3 more minimum contracts ($2,464,849) to fill the roster. If the goal is to stay below the 1A .... Tari is as good as gone. If the 1A is not an issue, keeping both is not difficult - unless matching an offer for Tari gets to $30m ....
Also if Tari gets an RFA offer sheet it will likely be written to make it as hard as possible to match, so if he signs an RFA deal he's likely gone even if the number isn't as big.
Money has been hard to come by for role players in FA. DFS who’s proven a bit more than Okogie only managed to guarantee himself 2/25 million. Guys who had amazing years like Ty Jerome signed for under 10 mill per I think retaining Okogie for a reasonable 7-8 mill a year would be possible, even if he had a fantastic year. At that price you can retain him and move off of Capela or DFS if need be.
Tari's offer would have to come in with a fist year salary greater than $30.7m (assuming Okogie signed for the taxpayer MLE) to push the Rockets above the 2A. Only 3 kinds of contracts can have decreasing salary - Bird & non bird can decrease by up to 8% per year. (Only the Rockets can offer a bird contract) Contracts that use actual cap space can only decrease by a max of 5% per year. All other contracts, including those using exceptions must increase by 5% per year. 30.7 (1.535) 29.165 (1.45825) 27.70 (1.385) 26.315 A team would have to offer 3 years $87.565 or 4 years $113.88m and do it with cap space. That's an average salary of $29.1m over 3 or $28.47m over 4 years. I think that's a pretty big overpay. Considering it would be limited to teams with the actual cap space to do it, I find it unlikely. That doesn't mean the Rockets would match offers that were actually lower - just the math of trying to make it difficult on the Rockets takes an offer much bigger than reports are Stone offered (5/100?) or any figure we discussed around here as to his value (15-25?).
fwiw: pretty sure raises and decreases are not compounded interest. So, it’s 8% of first year, and each yr after has same $-amt raise/decrease. you can see how it works with Jabari’s contact that decreases AND increase based on same initial 8% https://www.spotrac.com/nba/player/_/id/78109/jabari-smith-jr
