[SHAMS] Fred VanVleet - Torn ACL - Out for the season

He's an easy player to underrate. He runs low FG% because he takes so many threes. He's a not-super-athletic 6'0" (at best). He doesn't make highlight passes, he's got a solid understanding of the point guard position but doesn't create huge advantages by himself.

"He runs the offense well and almost never turns the ball over, creates a lot of floor spacing, and plays good (but not spectacular) defense" just is not an exciting package, but it does create significant value, and it pretty much covers the bases for what you actually need from a lead guard in today's league.

If the team is even better without him, it will be mainly because we added KD, and perhaps secondarily because his steady play was nevertheless creating an opportunity cost for other players to have the ball in their hands more often.

 

Our offensive talent level is higher this year than last year, by replacing Jalen with KD and the other young guys growing up one more year. We wouldn't have to rely so much on FVV even if he's not hurt. He would have downgraded to where he should be perhaps coming off the bench by midseason if Reed matures fast.

 

I see FVV as a player that can dribble, pass, shot, process, and defend. Maybe not the greatest at any one thing, but hard to find someone that does all that at the PG. He's taken a hit on his rim pressure during his time as a Rocket.

I just haven't seen the opportunity cost. I've seen the development of young players with FVV giving up a lot of the playmaking during the middle of last season as others became better. I am really excited about this coming season because of the development of Amen and Alperon. I don't want to give too much credit to FVV on their development, but I have a hard time seeing him as an impediment when guys are getting so good so quickly. I'm not big on having veterans for veterans sake, but I think FVV added structure to the team.

 

TO ME, FVV was Ime's critical tool to control pace to implement his season and half over-rebounding strategy to maximize the defense. A high effort, non-selfish, high BBIQ player. Not a good defender against any big guard, small, slow, subpar shooter, cannot drive and penetrate. His TO numbers are hidden by his deep chucking that are essentially TOs. It's clear in these preseason games with Amen able to hit the 3 that the team has a much better identity now with the locks removed.

The draft assets we have left are clearly ammunition that should be used WHEN OPTIMAL on a top tier PG that is the missing piece of this team. At least for now, Ime has wisely made this a PGless team that works better than it did last year with FVV. A team like this can actually grow as they play together.

It will take time to balance the defense with that but it is clear the team has a better flow than last year. The team can push the pace, penetrate, and naturally shares effectively. For all his importance, FVV had subpar assist rates and overall the offense was stale and reliant solely on individual talent to create in compromised shot clock situations and chucking 3s. I think Durant's unpredictable style and focus on effective 2s have OPENED up the floor. Having an 8 man rotation of DFS, Shep, and Eason with Adams starting enables a lot of interchangeable lineups where I think the team knows how to play well together. Amen looks better, Jabari looks more free to move around, Shep is better, Durant is Durant, and Alpy has looked like Joker without the 3 and moves so freely to his spot every time and gets the assists. For all the talk about Giannis, with Adams starting Alpy actually has that role now. Definitely don't want Giannis.

 

Losing Fred hurts, but with all the other upgrades, his loss is mitigated.

DD

 

Honestly him being a game manager has had the effect of helping the less experienced young guys on the roster perform better. His impact individually as a player is that of a low quality starter but his impact to the team he plays on has been much higher. The question is - does the team still need Fred to manage the game to limit turnovers and create order on the offensive and defensive end or have the guys learned enough to be functional there. That is what Fred's injury is going to expose - has Fred outlived his usefulness and we have been using him as a crutch or do we still get significant value from him helping the on court play of younger players. .

 

FVV won't be out there tackling Durant if he was healthy. FVV being out will not give the Rockets a chance to how good the team is with FVV. Maybe the Rockets win a championship without FVV. My view would be that the players on the team were great enough to win a championship, and not that FVV getting hurt elevated the team to a championship.

Losing FVV makes the team worse.

 

You are missing the point. Fred is still a valuable player on any contending team. Agree the team is less competitive overall without him.

Fred is valuable on this roster but he is not necessarily a starting level PG anymore and we continued to play him as such and give him the lion share of minutes running with starting units. That was the issue we were facing this year - we needed to start transferring Fred's minutes and particularly his role in the first units elsewhere even if Fred never got injured. This expedites that but it is a shame because we don't have the option of bringing Reed and Amen along situationally according to matchups or splitting minutes to limit expossure to those minutes where Amen or Reed might be outmatched against another starter - now we don't have a Fred buffer during those bad matchups so they just have to go out there and take their lumps. I think it makes us stronger in the long run, but definitely impacts us negatively this year.

 

I haven’t liked how we’ve looked. It’s felt discombobulated on both ends, I won’t be surprised if this is an underwhelming season.

Fred going down, KD being 37, not having guard depth, our key guys having flawed/difficult player molds and Ime struggling as an offensive coach seems like a lot of weak spots adding up

 

This would be a decent pickup. Is it not possible until Dec 15th (needing to trade one of our vet mins into cap space) @BimaThug ?

 

FVV's position on a contending team should be what he was on the Raptors. That Raptors team had Kawhi, OG, Siakam, Lowry and they only won because KD was injured and Kawhi stayed healthy for that playoffs. So really you don't want FVV to be used any more than that. You can argue either way whether that's a key piece or not. But that probably depends entirely on his replacement. Basically if Reed Sheppard can be our Kenny Smith? Then the Rockets shouldn't miss a beat. But if he is just Matt Maloney? Then yeah, that would be a huge problem.

 

This is interesting to me. We are both watching the same team but I am seeing something radically different. I'm seeing a team that is so skilled and mature that the discombobulation is merely a team of potential future all-stars learning to play on a team of all-stars. There's a saying "treat a man as he is and he'll stay as he is. Treat a man as he could be and he'll become as he should be." When I watch KD on the court with Amen, Sengun, Jabari, Tari, and Reed I see him communicating with them as the players he knows they could be. And the ease and confidence with which the starters are already beginning to demonstrate is exciting. It's like the look Neo gives in the Matrix when he first starts to see everything in the Matrix. The world seems so slow to him. That's my impression.

That said, I think there's going to be some growing pains but not because our guys are flawed or difficult. I think it will be because the "kids" are going to need some time to figure out the new sweet spot for their energy output with KD on the court. To play at KDs tempo. Or I should say Alpi and KDs tempo because those two are going to be the primary conductors of this ensemble.

We are going to miss FVV. He was steady Freddy. Not a great PG but a vocal leader on the court that the young guys needed. I think the culture that FVV helps establish with his vocal leadership style is already being seen between all the players and KD is fitting right in. When KD tells Jabari (or Amen or Tari) to take the ball and abuse the smaller defender I think he's able to do that because of the communication habits of the team established by FVV. I can't wait to see how this season unfolds. Thank God we don't have to wait much longer.

 

I agree with the "discombobulated" take but I think there's a sense among the players of "let's get on with the season, already" and, well, we'll make some sort of trade during the season.

 

FreeBirds will flock from SAC, the Bricks and DC.

Our roster isn't anywhere near complete . KDs pull is the heaviest in the league aside from LBJ and uncle Dennis

 

We just wont make a move until mid december at the earliest because we cant afford it.

I know everyone keeps looking at tari as the obvious trade tool, but I am looking more so at the capela contract and its ability to get us a guard. I know we are diving into the ultra big twin towers a lot but so far capela hasnt exactly shined there and he is a luxury more than anything.

 

The Rockets won 52 games with FVV as a starting PG most games. FVV hasn't even missed a regular season game yet, and yet Amen and Sengun look so good. I try to imagine how much better Amen and Sengun would be if FVV was truly a detriment to the development. Amen and Sengun may be all-nba caliber skilled players right now and FVV hasn't even missed a regular season game yet this season.

There is no evidence that FVV negatively impacts development. On the contrary, the Rockets' young players have developed greatly with FVV. Maybe more than any other team. OKC is really the only other team that really compares right now, but they may have just started with better prospects/players.

 

FVV indirectly affected Amen and Reeds development thru Ime. Amen should have been orchestrating the offense at least the last half of the year and Reed should have been getting a few of FVV’s and Jalen’s minutes for development purposes. I get why Ime played FVV monstrous minutes, I just don’t agree with it.

 

Ime should have been more on the "Still developing, while winning train".....we wasted a year....IMHO.

DD

 

Team looks fine right now, not even worried about making moves at this time. Lets give it a couple of months and re-evaluate.

 

@DaDakota & @Hemingway get it - if we have serious title aspirations, all our young guys need every opportunity to mature and grow because ultimately Fred isn't going to lead a team to the Finals - guys like Amen and Alpi need to. Fred 100% helped mentor our young team on the court when he first got here but he was always meant to be a bridge. At some point those young players have to take accountability to actually lead a team and bring order from chaos, calm the troops, organize their offensive and defensive sets on the court, hold guys accountable when they mess up, and build a culture around learning from those mistakes.

If Fred is still playing mama bear out there on the court taking out the trash and washing the dishes for the kids - when are the kids going to learn the life skills they need to succeed at the highest levels?