[ESPN] Kevin Pelton Win Projections for 2025-26 Season

Nobody expected the Rockets to get the 2nd seed last year because the West was so stacked.

Same thing this year. The Rockets could end up as the 2nd seed or 8th seed. You just don't know.

But at least the Rockets have KD and he makes up for a lot of what the Rockets needed last year.

I think the Rockets getting home court advantage in the first round would be a successful regular season.

 

Their model underestimated us last year too. KD is going to be the 3rd-most contributing player to winning (win shares) in this upcoming regular season. FVV was going to be the 4th before he got injured.

Our record this season will largely be set by the performance of Sengun and Amen, our two cornerstones. KD fits seemlessly into that core and provides so much of the #1 deficiency we had last year, bail out late-in-the-shot-clock buckets. You take our #2 league-wide defense from last year and insert KD taking up shots instead of JG and Brooks, and it remains a quite dangerous combination so long as all our remaining players stay healthy.

That being said, I wouldn't bet on the Rockets at 53.5. Even if I think we'll win 56-58 games even without FVV, that line is not a good enough one to put money on. My friends and I bet on the Rockets' record going over the +/- the past two years, but this year I'd need the line to be 51-51.5 before I'd consider putting money down on it.

 

Phoenix had a 44-31 record with KD in 23-24 and 33-29 record with him in 24-25, a win rate of 59% and 53% respectively. Their record last season wasn't glowing even when he played, but their roster was extremely flawed and they went 3-17 (15% win rate) without him. Hard to fault him for not driving a team like that to winning success.

I don't have a problem with the projection though. Our roster has a lot of turnover and FVV is out for the season. His absence will be felt and we're hoping for some very young players like Reed to pick up the slack. It might take some time to build continuity. Also, KD just turned 37 and I'm not counting on him playing 65+ games.

 

I took the under in Vegas at a pretty high level. I expect a worse regular season but for them to be better in the playoffs. Why? Injuries primarily, but they are also going to have to develop a new chemistry. That’s not always as easy as it sounds.

 

They have gone full out on them Worriers, 56.1.......goodness gracious.

How healthy do they think 36 year olds would be.......

 

I think a whole lot of people underestimate the value of a quality point guard.

 

I don’t think chemistry is going to be much of an issue with Ime at the helm.

Injuries are always an x-factor. Barring injuries I’ll take the over and I think this team has the guns and the sheer kinetic energy to just overwhelm teams and get the #1 seed.

 

I would say a lot of people didn't value FVV as even a quality PG and were fine getting rid of him even though the Rockets would have limited means to have added a replacement.

Without knowing how Pelton's model works, I'd guess Reed is a big reason that the Rockets are scored so low. Looking at EPM, Reed is projected as -3.1, averaging about 25 mpg. FVV is 0 mpg, but would be 2.5 EPM if healthy. Basically, just switching Reed's minutes to FVV would be a 6 win difference assuming Reed plays no minutes. I assume, Pelton had Reed playing 10-15 mpg so the 4 wins matches well with FVV being valued well and Reed as atrocious.

I'd have the Rockets higher with FVV than Pelton did. I totally get why an analytical projection would have Reed rated incredibly low. Analytcial models are going to see Reed as an anchor that isn't ready. I think Reed will still be a below-average player this season, but I think he'll be in the -1 range instead of the -3.1 EPM projection has him at (think a Jalen Green-like jump from year 1 to year 2). I don't think Reed will be as atrocious as last season.

I would point out that "Kevin Durant hasn't driven winning success at the level his box score stats would imply since being traded to the Suns at the 2023 deadline." also alludes to Durant not being valued highly. In Phoenix, Booker and Durant played a lot of your turn, my turn which makes Durant less valuable when it is Booker's turn and Booker less valuable when it is Durant's turn. I think there is a decent chance that Durant's value doesn't have the same level of diminishing returns in Houston like it did in the Suns. I don't expect him to be more valuable than Amen or Sengun, but the way Amen and Sengun provide value is different than KD. As such, I don't think Durant is going to steal as much value from them and vice versa.

 

Peloton has the #’s reversed. The young core of Houston will keep improving to add wins while the old core of GS is clearly in decline. He overstates the impact of a declining KD whereas the impact of KD on the margin will be positive for the Rockets as he fills the efficient ISO scorer hole the Rockets had. I still see the Rockets at 55-60 wins and I assume KD will miss 15-20 games.

 

WAY WAY too low, if we are healthy we win in the 60s...

DD

 

Being completely honest, I was one of those who wanted FVV replaced - BUT I also realize they didn't really have any financial ability to do that.
FVV is a high floor , low ceiling guy. He's going to protect the ball and get the team into it's offensive sets while not being a liability defensively - but he isn't going to carry anymore of the offensive load than that because his offensive game is limited to (streaky) shooting from outside, he's not particularly good in the pick and roll and doesn't provide much rim pressure and doesn't finish well when he gets there.

He's upgradable ..... but there's a high price to pay to make that happen.

As for a December or trade deadline move - they don't have much salary to work with, mainly because FVV has a no trade option and I'm not so sure he would waive that option.
With the injury, I wonder if he stays in the league beyond the end of his current contract?? Maybe as a minimum guy? In that case, his bird rights aren't a big deal - but what athlete wants to face that reality?

 

I really don't get that projection, at all. Oh wow, they re-signed a disgruntled Kuminga. Best players are old and a year older. Team should be... [checks notes] ... much better this year!

 

Their model probably doesn’t capture non traditional line ups, like using a playmaking center. and they are trying to write a narrative for the output of the model. Naturally the narrative is bad as well.

even with kd and fvv both injured, this team will be close to the projected number imo.

 

Do they provide a history of the results of past predictions by the way?

 

I think Pelton must have just watched the first 5 minutes against Utah and then made his predictions!!

The lack of a PG effect will definitely be something. But there is also (still) the effect of younger players growing to factor in.
Do we think Alpy will be the exact same as last year, or is it possible he improves?
Amen?
Jabari?
Reed?

I think all 4 will be better than last year

 

I agree. i think for me it's not even just a "will they be better?" question, but for some players "will they be a lot better than I already thought they'd be better looking at appearances?" So if I'm judging so far:

Alpi - looks like he's probably going to finally get to run the show and likely more of a leap than I thought he'd be. I thought he'd solidify his all-star level, looks like he could be in for all-NBA contention if he carries on looking this fantastic
Amen - whilst I do think he's been more underwhelming than others, have you seen that shot form? He could be playing like absolute trash and I'd still be grinning at how smooth he's hit those corner 3's. I think again that puts him ahead of where I expected
Jabari - KD just turned someone I thought might be a semi-bust into a whole new man. Shocked by how good he's looked, WAY beyond my expectations already.
Tari - honestly? I had high hopes but he does just look the same to me, except he's forcing more. We'll see.
Reed - shooting I expected more, everything else I expected less. So I'll call that "around expected improvement."

That's the prospects alone, and then you factor in swapping Jalen for KD and I just can't see how that projection is where they have us. I'd expect a huge improvement with us being real contenders, this should be a great year for us and I don't think that's homerism from any of us who feel that way, it just makes sense on paper.

 

That’s a valid argument. Durant will be part of a trio that includes two young and hungry talents, at only 23 yo and for some reason people forget that. A 46 wins projection is definitely low. 55-60 range as you suggested seems a little-bit high imo, I would give a 52-56 range.

 

These projections are too low. The Rockets will win at least 50 games again this season.

Adding Durant along with growth from young players is more impactful than losing VanVleet a month before the season.