We need some changes, but a full re-build, nah. We either have to sign Framber (unlikely) or find a no. 2 or two 3’s. Cole and Smith look like the real deal to me. Paredes and Alvarez back. It is a challenge to find a spot on the infield for Paredes and Altuve needs to be a DH, but we can afford a less than stellar 2b. None of our issues are insurmountable.
Current very rough surplus value estimates: Smith $100M Brown $85M Pena $60M Paredes $35M Diaz $35M Matthews $30M Melton $27M Arrighetti $25M Blubaugh $25M Meyers $20M Cole $20M King $18M Blanco $15M Dezenzo $12M Wesneski $12M Alvarez $10M Abreu $10M Sousa $8M Sanchez $4M Urias $4M Okert $4M Alexander $4M Gordon $4M Whitcomb $4M Dubon $2M France $2M Murray $2M Corona $2M VanWey $1M Salazar $1M Trammell $1M Leon $1M Correa $0 Garcia $0 McCormick $0 Ort $0 Walter $0 Rooney $0 Altuve -$10M Walker -$10M Hader -$10M Javier -$10M McCullers -$15M A “full rebuild” would essentially just be trading Brown, Pena, Paredes, and maybe Diaz, then hoping the rest of the veterans (except Altuve) played themselves into good trade chips by the deadline.
Cole and Smith looks like the real deal but nothing kills confidence more than their manager not having confidence in them by pulling them after the 7th inning in close games.
Trailing 3 season cumulative fWAR rank at their position: C Diaz 8th 1B Walker 6th 2B Altuve 4th SS Pena 9th (Correa 16th) 3B Paredes 7th RF Sanchez 16th CF Meyers 11th LF Alvarez 12th DH Alvarez 6th
There is no full rebuild coming, way too much everyday talent coming back on this team, which is weird to say as awful as we have been on offense. We have 3 major issues going into the offseason, and Brown won't have enough resources to address them all. In reality this just makes us like 80% of all playoff contenders, we just aren't used to being in this class 1st Issue: The offense issues are because we have "solid" players everywhere and not a clear place to have a major upgrade to a stud. The only stud offensive player on our roster is Yordan, who was always injured this year. Pena, if he can repeat this year, was well above average, but he needs to be our 3rd best hitter or something in that range, he isn't good enough to be your best hitter. Altuve was average, Correa average overall although he was really good after the trade. Jake was solid, Cam was solid early then really struggled vs RHP, Yainer was below average and if he rebounds which I think is likely, he still isn't a true offensive stud. Between Yordan and Altuve there is your DH and a split of LF/2B. Problem is unless you are going to make one of them an everyday defender at one of those positions, you can't bring in an offensive stud to be a part time guy at either. 2nd Issue: The rotation is in shambles. Yea, we have a grab bag of upside arms. Yea, our pitching guru's can take mid pitchers and turn them into above average pitchers, but not without getting hurt. We have Hunter, Javier, ????????? Will Arrighetti be healthy? Will Blanco be healthy? What is Alexander? Will we get anything out of Wesneski? If we went into a new season right now, I would have to guess Blubaugh is our #3, but who knows what happens after that. We need to go get two starters, one that can pitch legitimately in the #2-3 spot, and another who can be a solid back of the rotation guy. And both of them need to be guys that we don't have to tweek to the point of putting them at risk of injury. 3rd Issue: The pen must be addressed. Who knows if Hader will be available at the start of the season. And if they wait it out to see, there is no guarantee he is available next year at all. If he is, GREAT, but we can't count on it. Abreu would be fine as the closer but we have no legit set up guys. King had a good year as did a few others, but none of them are legit playoff leverage type guys. We need at least one of those types to be added Now we have a little money to spend with Framber coming off the books, but no where near enough to address all of that. What is the answer? Best case is probably moving Walker just to rid the salary and putting Paredes at 1B. Keep Dubon and Urias as they give you good versatility, and hope that Cole and/or Matthews is ready to be everyday players next year that can give us a boost. The money saved on Walker needs to go to pitching. Go get a Sonny Gray from St. Louis, he could fit with Javier behind Hunter to give us a solid 3 That should leave enough money to go get a solid innings eater type for the back end of the rotation, and a true leverage reliever. The pitching HAS to be addressed if we have a chance to get back
One interesting thing to me is that Okert, Altuve, and Walker are really the only players projected for next year’s roster who should be in age related decline.
How come you think Hader's contract is so much underwater? The other guys of course make sense but Hader is still really really good (unless his injury issue is something that will persist?)
Dana Brown wants a puppet yes man. Well he's definitely got himself one. Joe is Mr. Oompa Loompa. He's just happy to have this job. Not surprised he'll be back next year. Sheesh. 2028 = 2011
Given the number of injuries this year, the Astros were lucky to have not lost 87 games. Joe Espada is not the problem.
I think the current expectation is that he’ll be healthy by next March. But if Houston were to shop him this offseason other teams would heavily discount his value due to the uncertainty.
If this team was remotely healthy they could have had the top seed in the Al. No rebuild is needed just a few smart moves.
If there are any coaching changes made this offseason, one of them needs to be "Alex Cintron will not be retained as hitting coach." He might not have that big of an impact (who the hell knows what his true impact is), but a change in this team's hitting philosophy is sorely needed. Cintron's tenure has surely reached that point (honestly, I'm surprised he's lasted this long after that fiasco with Ramon Laureano during the COVID year). I think I've seen more than enough bases-loaded, less than 2 out situations that result in 0 runs or 1 run. I also cannot understand why erasing 1 or 2-run deficits has become hard labor for this club.
