Yup...we'll be well buried before the Astros can make this type of run again. Took over 50 yrs of existence for this type of run...just be glad to have lived to see this type of success. A loser organization like the Mariners haven't had a chance to sniff this type of success in their existence.
hope is doing a lot work there. We fans need to look at the trend line. Since the 2022 championship, the Astros are losing their star players, the stars that remain are getting older and on the decline and injuries have been much higher than expected. The Astros can win the division next year, but they need to get really, really, really lucky. And the Astros need Framber to not sign his QO in the worst way.
I know that they did target several of those at this deadline (Lopez, Alcantara... Rasmussen was VERY close to being an Astro at one point). The names I have heard from people with or close to the Astros in trade are Gore, Lopez, Rasmussen, Pepiot, Senga (?) - and they would really like to pry away Jose Soriano from the Angels. Some of the free agent names I have heard are Giolitto (Astros have tried to get him before), Gallen and Kelly. They are also looking at some relievers that could convert to starter.
The Astros would have won close to 100 games this year if they didn't have the worst injuries in franchise history. Injuries do come with age - but a lot of these injuries are NOT age related. The Astros next year on offense will return: Correa, Pena, Altuve, Walker, Alvarez, Meyers and Paredes.... they also will have Cam Smith, Zach Cole, Brice Matthews all as young players, and there is a good chance one of them (probably Smith) is good. The pieces are very good on offense, and even defensively. The Astros also have a number of pieces they can trade or move around if they want. There is almost zero chance of Framber taking the QO unless he has been pitching with an injury - the Astros would be very happy if he took the option, even with his poor play the last 7-8 weeks. The pen is returning Hader/Abreu/King/Okert/Sausa and Santa and others are ready. I think the biggest issue is that the Astros are going to need a couple of inning eaters in the rotation with Framber gone, and the lack of depth in the rotation. Finances will be relatively tight, but there are guys like Pena, Diaz, Matthews, Smith and others that have high trade value - and other options to fill those spots. From the little bit I have heard recently, the Astros will get creative. As for the division - 5-6 years ago I said the M's system was very good when it was ranked near the bottom of the league. I even said I thought they would win the division in 2023. My point being that I have had a high opinion overall of the M's talent and FO. However - they only beat the Astros this season because of injuries, otherwise they would have ended up 10 back. It also took the M's catcher hitting over 60 homers and winning the MVP... that isn't likely to happen. What the Astros cannot have happen is a repeat of Christian Walker. They spent their money on Walker and while he had his moments, he overall wasn't good enough this year. They need to decide if he is going to rebound like 2024 or they need to eat some of the money and move him to another team.
Two things about Framber If he signs the qualifying it will be a deal for the Astros, considering the pitchers market at present If Framber signs the QO it means he wants to be here. So there is something to be said for that. Just my thoughts on the matter
Framber may have realized that he shat the bed the last 1/3 of the season and that there is a possibility that his FA offers will be underwhelming (mulit year deal with less than QO per year) or that there may be only one or two teams who will actively pursue him and actively bid up his offers. This uncertainty may drive Framber to strongly consider the QO ... for his own selfish reasons. To put the shoe on the other foot, how many MLB teams looking for SP help would want to pay top dollar for Framber right now?
These are the same set of players who struggle to put runs on the board at the beginning and end of the season. Next year's pitching staff may be what the staff is right now ... likely minus Framber. How many of the pitchers who right now are injured can we realistically expect to pitch next year competitively? Spencer Arrighetti Ronel Blanco Luis Garcia Lance McCullers Kaleb Ort Bennett Sousa Brandon Walter Hayden Wesneski And do we really know that Hadar isn't more seriously injured? I do not want to be a Debbie Downer but the arrow is not pointing in the right direction.
All players - and teams - do everything for their own selfish reasons. If he takes the QO in order to get a better contract next year, he'd be incentivized to play well. That said, there is ZERO reason to take the QO. Even if no one is willing to give him a big long term deal, someone would happily pay him $30MM on a 1-yr deal in the hopes of getting the 2021-2024 Framber. Low risk for franchises with lots of money and World-Series-altering upside. So there's no reason to take $20MM for a year.
There are surely teams that would gladly pay $30M+ for the 2025 version of Framber; 185 innings of 3.75 era ball is worth a lot of dough.
I think the Astros have a real pitching crisis with so many of their young starters flaming out with injuries. We also can't count on Hader pitching to his contract anytime soon.
I think it’s possible the Astros will have more payroll flexibility this offseason than I would have expected coming into this year. They will likely trade or non-tender McCormick, Garcia, and Sanchez, and I assume they will only keep one of Dubon or Urias. If they do that then they’ll probably have $30M-$40M available without going over the CBT. That in combination with shedding 3/4 or more of Walker’s contract would give them $40M-$50M to spend. You can add at least 2 good players for that, and still have money leftover to add in some lesser pieces to fill in the bullpen or add complementary bench players. Still it really sucks to see their payroll filled with $110M in underwater contracts (McCullers, Walker, Javier, Hader, Altuve).
The problem there is when the Astros make a pitcher better, it’s by doing things that the pitchers body can’t handle and he ends up under the knife The Astros need to go to a starter that they don’t have to make better , one that is already better
The Astros have done this for nearly a decade. They may make some changes but not anything drastic on the pitching side as far as how the do things and who they target. Arm injuries are a fact of modern baseball and look at the Dodgers, Rays etc. The arm issues for the Astros have been bad the last season or two but overall not on the grand scheme of things.
