This is why the MLB is stupid. So no draft evaluation or anything of the sort…. Not even reviewing old footage or video. No team is going to follow that. Teams will be in their basements watching video and producing internal reports. All this rule does is set up teams to cheat - one get caught and punished for what every good team is doing.
What else are they supposed to do? Continue to let non-major market teams achieve success unencumbered?!?
Spoiler: Snake Diggit's Astros Top 30 Prospects: Final 2025 Update 3B Xavier Neyens 55 (NR): I'm really high on Neyens and think he was one of the 15 best players in the draft, but he may not move very quickly. 2B Brice Matthews 55 (2): He's a really good, high upside prospect who just needs a little more time. OF Jacob Melton 50+ (4): I had listed him under graduated prospects but he was surprisingly optioned before his eligibility expired. Disappointing MLB debut but the ceiling is still there. P Ethan Pecko 50+ (5): His AAA innings and associated savant data looked really, really good. I'm very very high on him. C Walker Janek 50+ (6): Arizona Fall League will be a good opportunity for him to get some shine back. P Miguel Ullola 50 (7): I'm still in. Best fastball of any player in Houston's system outside of Hunter Brown. Still young enough to get the walks under control. Could probably strike big league hitters out now if he had to. OF Kevin Alvarez 50 (16): Couldn't ask for more from a pro debut; it'll be 2+ years before we have concrete info, but his stock is rising. OF Zach Cole 45+ (28): He's had a huge resurgence and was called up to the majors. The k rate still points strongly to him busting, but his ceiling is too high to ignore. OF Ethan Frey 45+ (NR): Excellent bb/k ratios in A ball but with almost no power. Still excited to see what he does next year, could be a fast riser. OF Joseph Sullivan 45+ (15): Cooled off a bit in AA but still a great year. P Ryan Forcucci 45+ (22): Patience. P Anderson Brito 45+ (13): He is healthy and going to pitch in the Arizona Fall League and could raise his stock quite a bit there. P Bryce Mayer 45+ (HM): Made it to AA and has maintained a high k rate. Big upside. P Alonzo Tredwell 45+ (HM): Dramatically raised his stock after reaching AA. P Jackson Nezuh 45+ (12): Really liked the reduced walk rate after he got back from injury. 2026 breakout candidate. P James Hicks 45 (18): Healthy again, profiles as the type of pitcher who gets called up and holds his own as an SP 5/6 similar to Gusto/Gordon this year. C Jase Mitchell 45 (NR): Betting on Dana Brown. C/1B Will Bush 45 (HM): Very good 100 pa sample in AA to end the season. P Alimber Santa 45 (HM): Trending for an add to the 40 man this fall. P Jayden Murray 45 (HM): Got called up and looked really good and projects as a AAAA MR, but there's upside for more. Injuries really clouded his development. OF Luis Baez 45 (14): A huge rebound month has his stock back up. Still risky due to defensive limitations but the big bat potential is obviously still there. OF Lucas Spence 45 (NR): Very solid sample in AA in his first full season. Projects as a bench player or fringe regular, but he's a real prospect. P Jose Fleury 45 (23): Got beat up badly in AAA so his stock is trending down. P Juan Bello 45 (20): Overall he had a solid season considering his age, level, and league OF Kenedy Corona 45 (29): Will probably get one more season on the 40 man to try to break out in AAA. OF Pedro Leon 45 (26): Looked good in rehab stint in AAA. Next year will be the last chance for him to break in with Houston. C Jancel Villarroel 45 (HM): Struggled pretty badly after his promotion to High A but it was a small sample. P Cole Hertzler 45 (HM): Was extremely good in A ball before getting hurt. P Ramsey David 45 (HM): Reached AA in first full season, which usually bodes well. P Trey Dombroski 45 (HM): Decent year in AA and got a taste of AAA. Rule 5 eligible so how that plays out will tell us what the front office thinks of him. Graduated: RF Cam Smith (1), OF Zach Dezenzo (3), P AJ Blubaugh (8), OF/IF Shay Whitcomb (9), P Ryan Gusto (17) (traded), P Colton Gordon (19), Brandon Walter (HM) Traded: IF Chase Jaworsky (11), OF Esmil Valencia (HM), P Twine Palmer (HM) Honorable Mention: C: Miguel Palma (30), Collin Price, Yosweld Vasquez, Garret Guillemette, Arturo Flores, Jason Schiavone, Alexi Quiroz, Carlos Cauro, Andrews Sosa, Kedaur Trujillo; Price and Palma could suprise as they are holding their own in AAA and Houston will need a 3rd C next year; Guillemette had a great season and was doing really well in AA before getting hurt; late season promotions showed organizational faith in Schiavone, Trujillo, Vasquez, Sosa, and Flores; Cauro looked really good before getting hurt early in the season. IF: Alberto Hernandez, German Ramirez, Juan Rojas, Zach Daudet, Nick Monistere, Kyle Walker, Landon Arroyos, Caden Powell, Trevor Austin, Anderson Areinamo, Pascanel Ferreras, Jeron Williams, Alejandro Nunez, Camilo Diaz, Sami Manzueta, Hector Salas, Sandro Pereira, Wes Clarke; significantly better than at this time last season; Austin and Ferreras were league average bats in AA, the draftees looked good in small samples; the complex league guys also are a big reason for optimism; I am VERY high on Manzueta. OF: Kenni Gomez (10), Nehomar Ochoa (21), Yamal Encarnacion, Justin Thomas, Elijah Farley, DJ Newman, Colin Barber, Chase Call, Ethan Wagner, Anthony Millan, Karniel Pratt, Roiner Quintana, Juan Sierra, Tyler Whitaker, Cesar Hernandez, Anthony Huezo, Luis Rives, Ariel Lebron; a lot of talent here, and the early returns from the draft are positive. Very disappointing seasons from Gomez and Ochoa but those were more than offset by other guys breaking out. The Astros' farm is stacked with OF. P: All of them but especially Alex Santos (35), Logan VanWey (24), Michael Knorr, Nick Potter, Wilmy Sanchez, Hudson Leach, Amilcar Chirinos, Brett Gillis, Brandon McPherson, Patrick Halligan, Jank Pichardo, Nolan DeVos, Colby Langford, Raimy Rodriguez, Jagger Beck, Joan Ogando, Luis Rodriguez, Jhoster Baez, Parker Smith, Andrew Taylor, Manuel Urias, Ryan Verdugo, Omar Damian, Gabel Pentecost, Grayson Saunier, Kellen Oakes, Francisco Frias, Rafael Gonzalez, Norbis Diaz, Juan Fraide, Anthony Cruz, Tyler Guilfoil, Joey Mancini; lots to like but impossible to know which ones will pan out and stay healthy. This will be my last update until March. There will still be some meaningful data coming over the offseason. The crop Houston is sending to the Arizona Fall League all have a chance to significantly improve their stock (particularly Anderson Brito, Walker Janek, Jeron Williams, and Brett Gillis). They will add at least one very good prospect at the Jan 15 international signing period. There will almost certainly be at least one trade that sends out (or brings in?) meaningful prospects. The Rule 5 draft may see Houston lose 1 or 2 3rd tier guys. This was a good year for Houston's system relative to the prior 4-5 years. The Astros 2nd, 3rd, and 4th tier depth is cumulatively probably in the top 10 in the league. They lack the kind of elite prospects that lead a farm system. But with them heading into the offseason with a deep MLB roster, a high volume of very high ceiling talent in the lower levels, and poised to have 5 of the top 100 picks in the next draft, I predict Houston's farm will be in the top 12 in the league at this time next year.
Always enjoy reading through your list. This is mine, the logic being valuing a combination of success at upper levels and overall upside. Definitely could be going way overboard on Cole, but I’ve already seen him hit elite mlb pitching and have very good command of the zone. I’m bullish of him having George Springer upside, although this could just be a hot steak and he could flame out. Pecko to me should be valued as a top 100 prospect, once he got healthy he pitched very well. 1. Cole 2. Pecko 3. Neyes 4. Alvarez 5. Matthews 6. Ulola 7. Melton 8. Tredwell 9. Janek 10. Frey
