I think not working counts and making pitchers have extended innings is the single biggest weakness of this team. They knew it and publically announced they were focused on strengthening it last offseason but the changes didn't stick. In 2024, the MLB average was 3.88 pitches per PA. In 2025 it is currently 3.87 In 2025 the Astros are at 3.75 Cesar Sslazar, Yainer Diaz, Jeremy Pena, Mauricio Dubon, Jake Meyers, Jose Altuve, and Victor Caratini are all under 3.60. So with Dubon and Caratini playing more than expected and Meyers outplaying other CF candidates to win that job, its more challenging than ever to force pitchers to have extended innings. There is hope though: Correa, Walker, Yordan, Cam, Trammell, Melton, Whitcomb, Dezenzo, and Paredes are all over 3.90 so this could become a strength next season depending on the roster construction.
I'd much rather have Alvarez healthy and hitting like normal than force a pitcher to throw an extra 2-3 pitches per start (i.e., swinging too much is a problem, but nowhere close to the single biggest). Sure, he'd have a small impact on pitches per PA, but benching Pena, Dubon, Meyers, and Altuve would make a much bigger impact on pitches per PA than a healthy Yordan.
@IdStrosfan with a good article updated Hunter Brown and his pretty stellar season. 3 more good starts and he earns the Astros another draft pick in all likelihood.
At this point, management and coaches focus should be making sure our pitchers and players get enough rest to recharge for the playoffs. Help Altuve get out of his funk. I think this is far more important than winning the division as opposed to being a wild card team. We aren’t getting that first round bye.
Sounds like Sousa and Ort are out for the season. Assuming Hader is out, here’s how I’d line up the pitching staff in a playoff series: Game 1/4/7: Brown 1-6 Okert 7 King 8 Abreu 9 Game 2/5: Valdez 1-6 Okert 7 King 8 Abreu 9 Game 3/6: Javier 1-4 Garcia 5-7 Kimbrel 8 De Los Santos 9 Game 4: Alexander 1-4 Blubaugh 5-7 King 8 Abreu 9 Murray and Ullola would be my trash time extra arms. McCullers has no business anywhere near a playoff roster.
I don’t get your point. Alvarez is back and playing great. Losing Paredes and his patience hurt the most. We were at our best in the past when we were the least strikeouted team and were throwing the most strikeouts. Dana may not be as concerned as we are. He may have a different take on it and I think his player evaluation is elite. Injuries have derailed this year, but we are still in the hunt. Right now it is a Homerun league so swing and miss stats may not be as important (I’m not sure). Maybe one of the stat hounds can pitch in?
Bold strategy with 2 game 4's in there. Ullola starts game 7 imo. I'm here for it. On a serious note I don't get granular, I just view it as you need 8 arms in your path to victory. Those 8 for me on my winning plan would be (meaning they only come in when the game is tied or we are ahead- or in an elimination game): Brown, Framber, Garcia, Javier, Alexander, Abreu, Okert, Blubaugh, Guys on the roster but not on my path to victory (this means they never start an apperance except if we are behind): King, Ullola, De Los Santos, Kimbrell ****ing eat **** and wear it if we get down and want to punt the game: LMJ.
But I'm talking culturally. A healthy Alvarez is one piece of a 5 or 6 part solution. Altuve is a problem, but one they are stuck with. They addressed the defensive part of him being in the starting lineup but having 5 or 6 additional free/early swingers prevents any covering for him on the offensive side. It's OK to have Altuve. It's less OK to have Diaz and Pena in addition to Altuve. Having Dubon, Caratini, and Meyers in addition to Altuve, Diaz, and Pena creates a chasm in offensive game planning. Starters work deeper against them. They don't get to feast on the dregs of bullpens. Leverage guys pitch fewer high stress innings against them. It all adds up over a long season.
Culturally? The Astros could bench Pena to improve culturally, but I think that would hurt the Astros' run production. Worrying about having guys that take a lot of pitches is a stacked offense problem. If somehow the Astros could get Julio Rodriguez, I would be fine with his free-swinging ways. The Astros have not been healthy enough or deep enough to worry about significantly improving pitches per PA. Sure, try to get some hitters to get better at recognizing pitches and work counts. Just know that is only likely to have a negligible impact on run production. It is just hard to make a noticeable impact through coaching pitch recognition at the MLB level in-season. P.S. I favor guys with elite pitch recognition that can draw walks and make good contact. For the Astros, I just don't see these guys in abundance. The choice is basically play free swingers or play guys that take pitches who can't hit the ball, can't hit for power, only have slightly more walks because the other team would just throw strikes if they got to a three ball count, and generally strikeout more than the free swingers as they have bat to ball problems.
If the Astros hitters don't do damage against balls thrown in the strike zone (whether it the first pitch... or the 80th pitch of the AB).... it really doesn't matter how many pitches/AB this team sees. This team doesn't square up hittable pitches with enough regularity. Their 'best' mistake hitter over the years (Altuve) isn't hitting them as frequently as he used to as he ages... you're now seeing him feature the occasional bunt attempt during hitters count because his own body/brain is saying he's more likely to get on base bunting a mistake vs. swinging away at a mistake. And that remains the biggest difference between the best of the best, and everybody else. Pitch recognition out of the hand is one thing. The ability to square up and hit mistakes with regularity is the second thing. Those with elite eyesight and putting in countless hours in video room study can eventually excel at the first.... but means nothing towards the second. Pitchers don't fear throwing strikes to the majority of this lineup.
A stat I noticed that surprised me: Career wRC+ vs RHP: Jeremy Pena 98 Ramon Urias 106 Peña’s performance this season has been a godsend but he’s floated by a .348 BABIP and he still has a very low walk rate. If another team this offseason is willing to value him anywhere close to the 5 win player he’s been this season, Houston should cash in.
Wrote this blog today. Started b/c my VA keeps texting me in the middle of the night from the Philippines stuff like "why does framber suck" Article morphed into something a little more thoughtful than funny, hope there is some of each. If you like it please subscribe or follow and share (it's free). Listen to pod. Etc.
Not until we have somebody better to replace him with. Urias is not and will never be a starting shortstop in MLB. Comparing one stat to claim equivalence is at best foolish and in reality far worse than that. A five win short stop is a rare thing indeed without regard to any one stat. Correa could start at SS for many teams but not for a team with Pena on it.
