Maybe, but he needs 3-4 more decent starts before I will believe that. His velo and movement are not what they were before he got hurt and the rules changed his delivery. He was effective in his last start so that was definitely a good sign but we should all lower our expectations until he gives us more sample that shows it’s sustainable.
Astros run differential has fallen to just +15 (was above +60 mid-summer). Mariners are only +11. Neither of these teams look like true contenders, just teams that may reach the playoffs based on playing in a weak division. I really wish that wasn’t the case, but that’s my read w/ less than a month to go in the reg
Meh... run differential needs to be moderated as a measure especially once you are down at least 8 runs... who cares if you lose by 15 instead?
Jayden Murray is considered a non-prospect at this point but he is pretty interesting, at least over the last 5-6 weeks. His FB sits 95 and can get up to 97. He seems to struggle with keeping it in the zone, but it still gets swings and misses and does not get hit hard.
They should go ahead and award the division title, and first round bye, to the Rangers (+90)... better than the Jays or Tigers. Hell, let the Rays and their +61 in over the Astros/Mariners. I do expect both the Astros/Mariners diff's to improve as both likely end up having better Septembers than they did Augusts.... and you are who you are after 162.
Command more important than velocity. Also he's probably another month away from an injury if he's going max effort now.
I think somewhat - but I also think you have to consider that the 2022 team had Verlander and Framber (who is just a horse) at the top of the rotation. That team also had incredible balance on the pitching side. For example, Pressly was the closer and he pitched 48 innings all season. Josh Hader was already in the mid 50's when he got hurt. The 2025 Astros are going to have two starters with over 200 innings pitched - but no one else is going to crack 70 innings unless it is Abreu or Okert do it. That is an amazing statistic that gives an idea of how bad it has been. While the Astros are set up very well for 2026 in a lot of areas, they really are going to replace 200+ innings from Valdez.
I don't think the Astros re-sign him either, they like Salazar a lot. They likely take the money he would get and put it towards a starting pitcher.
Funny you mention The Rangers. They’re now only 1.5 games behind Seattle for a wild card spot. I would suggest they’re a lot better than their record would suggest. We’ll get a firsthand look this weekend. Run differential is a pretty telling stat. There are anomalies (you’ve correctly identified one of them), but the top 10 in run differential currently are Brewers, Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, Rangers, Tigers, Mets, Jays…..mostly all locks for the postseason at +62 and up. The Astros and Mariners are simply mid, and that includes post trade deadline and injury return production which, unfortunately, has remained some of the lowest run production in baseball. It’s OK to tell it like it is. You don’t have to like it, I certainly don’t, but that’s what my eyes are seeing. This is a lower third run-producing team w/ a pitching rotation that gives them a fighting chance when at its best.
I'm not either defending or rejecting it... but much like WAR, its a cumulative stat that tends to be more verifiable after the full 162. Rangers have lost Semian, Seager, and Eovaldi.... I don't need their current run differential to tell me that losing those 3 will eventually cause problems. Likewise, the Astros have just gotten back Alvarez, Javier, Garcia... while also re-introucing Correa/Pena/Sanchez. They should be winning more games vs. the time period where the run differential took the biggest hit. Also... the playoffs are a crapshoot no matter what the differential suggests. The last place Angels or last place Orioles could probably take out any of the division winners in either league in a 3 or 5 game series. When you look at that top 10 list... its basically just echoing how much parity there is across all the playoff contenders. There is no real powerhouse right now (Dodgers included).
We've got to give the medical staff the boot Although, pitchers being injured is nothing new . We were also down Javier , Garcia , and JP to start this year . Arighetti is a funky case , he didn't miss time for a.ligament injury and his workload this year has been low
The Rangers are catching fire at the right time, should be an interesting series this weekend.................show us who you are ASTROS and kick some a$$
Yup - the Astros bullpen has overall been very good. It is now not as easy as it was with Hader and Sousa
I'm not really worried because the Astros have dealt with injuries all year long to key players. If Paredes and Meyers come back for the Playoffs, the run differential does not matter.
