2025 Hypothetical Astros Trades Thread

I love Alvarez, but he is limited to DH. Number of games played in a season: 87, 2, 144, 135, 114, 147, 29 (this year so far). At what point, do the injuries outweigh how great he is when playing? If we can get haul for him, I would trade him. Pena I would try to keep if possible. He is young, durable, and looks to have solved his batting issues. Defense is great and we have nothing to speak of in the minors at SS. Altuve’s bat needs to be in the lineup going forward and DH may need to be his spot.

 

Sell low… buy high… what can go wrong?

In reality, this is the core. They’re going to hope for health and optimize 2-3 years at a time, like they have been doing throughout this era.

2-3 years is a long time in baseball…. Back in 2022, coming off the WS, everybody (including myself) was lauding over the new window created by the development of young pitching in Javier, Garcia, Urquidy… anchored by veterans Framber and LMJ. Now? NONE of those 5 may be expected to be anchoring anything as soon as next year.

 

So, they shouldn’t have traded Tucker either?

 

Would you have traded Tucker in 2023?

 

In hindsight, yes.

Knowing that by that time, Tucker was not going to sign an extension and was going to test free agency and that he would have missed the majority of the season, and the potential return that they could've landed, it would have been a shrewd move, but one that this team makes as the Astros do not hand out $300 million+ contracts.

Did the Astros punt on the prime years of other players when they traded Tucker... I do not believe so as they are still contending. Did the move hurt the current Astros team... maybe. But comparing Tuckers' number to Cam Smith's numbers, it doesn't look like that much of a difference.

Again, I'd like to see the Astros keep their homegrown players, but the formula has worked over the last couple of years of letting guys walk to get paid elsewhere and the Astros keep contending.

 

And in hindsight, the 2025 Astros would’ve been better off keeping Tucker and giving Bregman’s Correa’s money (with half deferred), but the hope is that Smith provides more returns over the next 6 years.

The key is not to try and apply everything to a “formula” as if it works indefinitely. Its highly doubtful Brown will trade anybody short of their penultimate FA year.

And Pena is not ‘walking’ till 2028 at the earliest. And he’s just slightly more impactful for this current team (and plays a position of need, without an obvious successor).

Hell, maybe they should just trade Smith and Brown now… you’d be getting the same if not more prospects, but plenty of unknowns along with that as well… but the 2035 Astros will be well set up! (Or they could trade those guys before arbitration… and set it all up for 2050!)

 

Actually, Tucker has cooled off significantly since the start of the season --- would the Astros have a better record with him on the team, maybe, maybe not. The return that you got for Tucker was a really good one considering he only had one year of control left.

With regard to shuffling money to X player instead of Y player can be debated, however, the Astros are not paying Bregman $40 million a year, which is what he wanted and eventually got from the Red Sox and it was a good move on their part as Bregman, while a better player than Paredes, isn't that much better and definitely not for the price difference between the two players.

No one stated that the "formula" works every time, as these types of situations are not a "one size fits all", however the Astros work within a budget and players who are going to want long-term deals with a high AAV are not going to be a part of the team once they hit free agency.

I did not like trading Tucker away, but understand that it was a business decision that was made once it was determined that Tucker was going to test free agency and was going to command a long-term deal probably close to $400 million in value. IMO, the same thing just happened with Pena as soon as he fired his agent in the middle of negotiations on a long-term deal and retained the services of Scott Boras --- who is known to guide his clients to go to free agency.

There's no need to be tongue in cheek proposing to trade Smith and Brown now to "gather prospects" and be ready by the 2050s. It is a plausible idea to weigh whether to trade Pena to get a good return, which may get you the potential replacement for Pena. Jim Crane will spend where he needs to in order to keep the Astros competitive, but will not reach the stratosphere where the Dodgers and Mets spend --- which I have no issue with.

The fact remains that Pena will most likely look to test free agency and will likely walk to a team that will pay him, and probably pay him what the Astros are not willing to meet. Just as it was done with Tucker, the Astros made a decision trade a key player (arguably one of the best) to get back three players who will be cheaper and contribute to the team (in which the Astros are still in 1st place --- albeit without Tucker).

 

See previous posts regarding this. Crane and the front office is not thrilled with having a top 5 payroll, but not really having much value in terms of what they’re paying premium prices for. That includes nostalgia costs like the Altuve extension.

As long as they’re in the running for playoff spots, they’re going to consistently optimize the current roster. That includes possibly hanging on to guys till their FA year as they’ve done before… or if its clear a deal can’t be worked out, consider a possible trade, but I’d venture that’s more the backup vs the default.

They made progress on the Pena negotiations. It’s clear that there shouldn’t be a “hometown” discount to try and extend a player unless there’s some sort of flaw/injury concern. Wouldn’t be surprised if they do come back with a market-corrected offer this off-season.

 

This is hard to like because I really want to see Pena through 2030. But if he can't be extended I like this solution. It moves Correa off third opening a place to put Paredes and play him for a few years till Neyens is ready.