The Rockets seem they are all in on Reed Sheppard. Going so far as saying if Reed was not on the board, they would have traded the 2024 #3 pick. Several people have reported that the Rockets brass is still super enamored with Reed and genuinely believe he will be a superstar; even after his seemingly uninspiring level of play during his rookie season. It was also reported that many teams inquired about trading for Reed Sheppard, but the Rockets virtually have made him untouchable in mostly any trade. But Reed is humble and coachable, and he seems to have all world potential and talent. Rockets and mostly Stone seem to be proceeding very cautiously with his development, especially how Jalen Green was given the wheel with little accountability - and that has hindered him and his development. I am mostly still super excited about Reed’s basketball potential, but most of it is rooted by the extremely positive attitude the Rockets have regarding his sky’s the limit potential. After all, it is they who have access to all the practices and drills; all the behind the scenes stuff.
I trust guys with good work ethics and coachability. Most guys with reasonable physical talent who work hard and are eager to improve will at least turn into useful rotation players.
I actually think his brain will probably keep him in the league as much as his physical abilities, even if his shooting never comes close to the all-time levels teased in his college run. Not just good work ethics, but the brain so that the work actually achieves something and he'll improve on craftiness alone as he matures in the league and learns his tricks. He's basically relying on being an all time shooter if he's getting anywhere near to star level because he really does look undersized and nowhere close to the higher level athletes at his position. I do hope they start running some wrinkles and screens just to get him more open looks in rhythm though. We need the opportunity for his shooting to have a chance to emerge.
Right. Intelligence is one of the most underrated talent in the NBA. A lot of talented players can't make it because they are too dumb to know what they need to improve on. (Terrence Williams comes to mind.) A lot of people say that if Reed can't shoot at elite level, he has nothing else to bring to the table. I disagree. He clearly has good playmaking instinct and sees the floor very well even with his size. If he can master some craftiness in his handles and learn to use screens well, he can be a very good PG, not just an undersized shooter.
I am of the view that if Reed can't shoot, the rest of his game won't play well. This isn't to say he can't do other things, but shootng (and the threat of shooting) is how he gets an advantage to make the rest of his game pop.
Exactly how I see it too. Even if he never breaks the 40% from deep mark to become a top shooter, he's clearly got both real brains and basketball brains in his head and he seems to have the gym rat work ethic with athlete parents. I definitely think he can be a better FVV at the absolute minimum (considering he has regular FVV to learn from too) and that's still a valuable player in the league even if it's not a superstar.
"Can't shoot" is relative. If he shoots lower than 33% 3p% at the end of his second season, he will probably be out of the league. But that's very unlikely. I don't see him shooting lower than 36% from 3 when he is fully developed. It would be disappointing if he shoots at league average for his career, given the expectation out of college. But even if that's the case, it still is good enough to aid his other aspects on offense. Think of him as something similar to FVV who is a career 37% 3pt shooter, small and unathletic and not particularly quick. He still carves out a decent career in the NBA, even one of the most important players on the Rockets in the past two seasons.
You have to really convince me that Udoka is a real intelligent Coach on Offense that can make use of his so called high intelligence. This reminds me of when people said Jalen Green had elite work ethic while his work ethic was decent but nothing of that is worth hyping that up to extreme levels.
I'm not sure 36% is good enough to get the other parts of his game to shine. I think his defense will be disruptive, but he will be targeted such that his offense might not be worth it as a starter at that level. 37% maybe. I'm thinking he needs to shoot ~40% while the other team is working to deny his shot to really unlock his midrange game and create advantages.
Why do you assume that his defense won't improve as well? Again, think of FVV. The only physical advantage he has over Reed is strength, which can theoretically improve by training. I am not sure Fred has significantly better lateral quickness. Yet he is a good POA defender. A lot of it is technique. That can be learned. My original point was that if a player is a hard worker and is coachable, he will very likely become at least a useful rotation player. BTW, I don't see much difference between 36% and 37%. It's around league average. Bottomline, my prediction is that Reed will be at least as good as FVV when fully developed. We'll have to see, of course. I can be wrong.
Jalen is probably an example of good work ethic but bad intelligence. He doesn't seem to know what he needs to work on to improve his game and keeps letting his bad habits to control the way he plays.
If Sheppard was that special IQ wise, I think he might have jumped FVV by now..... I do not consider Fred as one of the more intelligent playmakers, instinctual yes but not that intelligent. Fred uses his hands very well,......why I said instinctual.
FVV can guard up, is great at help defense, while keeping offense steady, and is a good shooter. I don't think he's got the mid-range game potential Reed has, but also, I expect Reed to be a better shooter. On FVV, I think people really underestimate how valuable not having a guard that bigger players can easily attack is.
I assume Sheppard's defense will improve. I think Reed's defense will be more Dyson Daniels than Amen Thompson. FVV is a spark plug. I don't expect Reed will ever be able to guard Draymond Green like players. I don't expect Reed to ever rip off his shirt, scram switch onto Paolo Banchero, who had gotten another small guard switched onto him, and shut down Paolo for 15 seconds or so (the ripping off the shirt was added for dramatic effect). I think Reed carrying the weight needed to do these things would be harmful to his offense. On 36% vs 37%...36% is an offensive rating of 108. 37% is 111. Considering the best halfcourt offense last season was 105.9, the differences between 35, 36, 37 are pretty big in determining how much pressure a team needs to put on a shooter. Above 40%, a team basically has to try to limit the guy's attempts. Below 31%, shoot away whether 20% or 28%. I think Reed would still need to shoot a little better than 37%, but that's about where teams can't just let a guy shoot 10 times.
I have an opposite view of Fred. I think he is intelligent/methodical rather than instinctual. That's why he is a low TO playmaker. He is not naturally talented by NBA standard. Nobody picked him. To get to where he is, he worked hard and he knew how to improve himself. Amen is an instinctual playmaker. Reed is a little bit of both.
Where did you get this? I thought offensive rating depended on a variety of things, not just on 3p%. On defense, Fred and Reed obviously have different body types and therefore their defensive styles will not be the same. My point was that the only physical "talent" (i.e. abilities unrelated to learned skills) Fred had over Reed was strength. Reed can learn to be a good defender just like Fred did (in different ways). Every player has strengths and weaknesses. Reed might never be able to switch on Draymond Green. But he might be better than Fred at guarding faster players because of his anticipation ability.
