For sure, no. But the fact that we're clearly looking at the 3rd base market, and he's seeking a second opinion makes the outlook pretty damn bleak.
For a rental. Hmm, I’ll be honest I don’t know what Dubon’s control years are left if any and I don’t feel like looking it up rn. But just comparing the players, I’d rather have Dubon over Urias. Until I actually see some of these guys returning from injury I don’t feel even remotely comfortable trading away guys that are competent major league hitters. ultimately if this leads to Cease, which I’m skeptical, but if it does then I guess fine. It’s a reasonable risk, I can see what they’re doing. But I’m not in love with it.
Paredes is having surgery and is out 6-9 months. Wrap your mind around it (not you in particular all Astros fans). I feel like this would be a good time to work on a 5/100 extension for him.
Dubon has 1 more year of arbitration he’s a super 2 so it’s arb 4 and he will probably make 8 or 9M. Urias is going to make like 1/5 in his last year of arbitration. If we traded Dubon and got rid of Chas that’s like an 8 or 9M net savings. Enough for a backup catcher that’s pretty decent in other words. I’d probably seriously consider offering Caratini something like 1/10 or 3/24 with that money. I think Urias is a better hitter and as good a defender at where he defends, but Dubon is more versatile. Dubon is considerably younger so I’d bet on him over course of his career to be more valuable than Urias, but we are really only talking about caring about value from now until the end of 2026. I’d bet on Urias but it’s close.
If I had known before today that the Astros had a minor league player named Twine, I might have gotten upset about them trading Twine away just because I love me some minor league players with great names (Max Holy, Franny Cobos). But I didn't know about Twine so I'm good with this.
Looking at Dubon's and Urias' monthly splits. Urias was good in April and June, Dubon in May and July. So alternate playing them on a monthly basis. Urius gets August and October and Dubon gets September and November (can the WS go into Nov this year?). 4D Chess I tell you.
I like this trade a little better now. I will like it a lot if the Cash Considerations Pay Urias' remaining contract obligations.