What will it take to make you seriously consider an EV?

China still relies heavily on Coal, but is pushing to transition away from it. Of the 62% of electricity generated from Fossil Fuels, Coal represents most of it because China is not a large producer of Crude and related.

China accounted for more than half of the global increase in wind and solar power in 2024

38%
Share of clean electricity

18%
Share of solar and wind

62%
Share of electricity from fossil fuels

Hydropower remains China’s largest source of clean electricity, contributing 13% in 2024. The share of wind and solar combined reached 18%, just ahead of the global average of 15% and above its neighbours Japan (11%) and South Korea (6%).

The biggest shift in China’s electricity generation in 2024 was the continued explosive growth of solar. China contributed more than half of the global increase in both solar and wind generation. China is the world’s largest electricity consumer, in 2024 accounting for a third of global power demand, and clean generation met more than 80% of its demand growth.

Despite this progress, fossil fuels still provided 62% of China’s electricity in 2024. Its per capita power sector emissions have risen to match those of Japan, which is roughly twice the global average. Coal generation reached a record high but supplied less than 20%of the rise in electricity demand.

China is also the world’s largest coal mine methane (CMM) emitter, and emissions from coal mining are rising. To curb this, China has revised the policy for gassy mines. By 2027, mines which emit gas with a methane concentration above 8% must capture or destroy the methane. Addressing CMM would significantly reduce overall emissions from the power and steel sectors.

Over the past two decades, China’s power sector emissions have tripled, though the pace has slowed markedly thanks to the rapid renewables expansion and efficiency improvements in coal plants. However, the transition to cleaner energy remains a complex challenge.

China is on track to have at least 2461 GW of renewable electricity capacity installed by 2030, doubling the 2022 figure, with solar capacity nearly tripling.

“With decades of sustained policy support, China is now championing the global cleantech revolution, leading in both domestic deployment and world production across sectors like solar panels,” said Dr. Muyi Yang, Ember’s Senior Energy Analyst. “While clean energy promises many benefits, realising them requires bold, enduring policy frameworks that transcend political cycles. China’s example highlights that the race to a sustainable future will be won by those who invest not just in technology, but in the patience and persistence to see their vision through.”

 

Car sales are becoming the least exciting part of Tesla, especially when you're pulling 6 month old data.

 

People **** all over Elon Musk - and he brings some of it on himself, he says a lot of dumb things ---- but no one can question that the guy actually "does stuff", while everyone else just talks about how cool it would be to do things, Musk actually tries to do them and with some success. I wouldn't go to Musk for relationship advice, but I do think he is inspiring for what he can create.

 

I don't think he's a creator as much as an child-like, comic book reading imagineer. He gets an idea (or steals one) and is rich enough to tell a bunch of people to go figure it out. Some of his ideas are OK and some, like that hyperloop/Boring thing, are trash or vanity projects. He caught lightning when he acquired Tesla. Starlink seems fine but has become a critical national security tech and it's now reached a stage where no country can trust him, so competition will soon cut into his operation. SpaceX has major problems. Grok/AI is a trainwreck. Same for Xitter. Nueralink appears to be ethically challenged. DOGE is one of the great acts of self-harm in the history of nations.

 

Musk has done nothing but promise "full self driving coming this year" for 7 years. He did well to start the Supercharger and build Tesla, but since he got crazy which has been since 2020, he's been full of ****

 

Yep. He's one of the biggest liars ever.

However, I must say that FSD is really really good right now. The improvement over the last 12 months has been stunning. I don't have FSD on our HW4 Model Y, but even on my 2018 Model 3 (HW3), FSD is worth using all the time. After being an extreme skeptic on autonomy and robotaxis, I think the chances of unsupervised FSD happening by next year are extremely good. You have to own a Tesla with FSD to understand. It's to the point I would dread having a car without it.

The rollout in Austin is very significant. The day they remove the safety monitors (if this ever happens) will be a day to remember in history.

To be clear, none of this means Musk has good character and it doesn't make him any less dangerous.

 

Volkswagen Will Sell You An ID. Buzz Robotaxi (June 18)

The production version of the driverless van is set to go global next year, possibly ahead of Tesla’s Cybercab.

With all the hype surrounding Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi service debut in Austin, Texas, it’s easy to forget that there are other players in the autonomous driving game. One of those players is the Volkswagen Group, and it just upped the ante with the launch of the production-ready ID. Buzz AD driverless taxi.

In short, starting next year, companies, municipalities, and other entities will be able to order a fleet of ID. Buzz robotaxis as a ready-to-go package. MOIA, VW Group’s ridepooling company, said the autonomous vans come packed with everything that’s needed to operate them, including the sensor suite, full certification, and something called the autonomous driving Mobility-as-a-Service (AD MaaS) Platform, which enables operators to deploy the taxis extremely fast.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s two-door, two-seater Cybercab is slated to go on sale by the end of 2027, according to CEO Elon Musk.

The VW Group entity said it plans to obtain full certification of the ID. Buzz AD to operate driverless in the European Union and the United States soon. When it comes to the sensor suite, the electric minivan comes packed with no fewer than 27, including 13 cameras, nine Lidars and five radars. The information from all of these goes into the Mobileye-sourced electronic brain to help it make decisions in all types of scenarios, including those where emergency vehicles are involved...

...What makes this solution interesting compared to other ride-hailing platforms is that it enables anybody to start an Uber or Waymo rival without investing hundreds of millions of dollars in research, development, and certification. MOIA offers a turnkey solution, potentially opening up the autonomous vehicle industry to many new players.

The van has four seats for passengers and one for the driver. However, no one will sit behind the steering wheel when the vehicle makes public trips. There’s also a luggage rack where the front passenger seat used to be.

In the United States, Uber partnered with Volkswagen Group of America to deploy thousands of self-driving ID. Buzz robovans over the next decade. The initial rollout will kick off in Los Angeles, with the first full commercial fleet going online next year. In Europe, MOIA has a ridepooling service in the German cities of Hanover and Hamburg.

 

VW kicks off its first US autonomous driving pilot with ID. Buzz EVs
(July 6)

Volkswagen is rolling out an autonomous driving vehicle test fleet with ID. Buzz EVs in Austin.

VW is launching its program with 10 ID. Buzz EVs that are kitted out with an autonomous driving (AD) technology platform that the global Volkswagen Group and tech company Mobileye developed.

Each of the SAE L4 ID. Buzz EVs is outfitted with an AD technology platform that includes cameras, radar, and lidar technology developed by Luminar. All of the vehicles will have human drivers at all times throughout the initial pilot.

VW is going to grow its test fleet in Austin over the next three years, and it also plans to expand AD testing operations to at least four more US cities.

Volkswagen Group of America will lead the strategy and business development in the US, and it’s launched a subsidiary called Volkswagen ADMT (that stands for Autonomous Driving Mobility & Transport) to support the AD program rollout, with teams in Belmont, California, and Austin.

Katrin Lohmann, president of Volkswagen ADMT, explained why VW chose Texas’s capital:

VW is aiming to launch AD vehicles in Austin by 2026.

 

Any idea of the per vehicle coast of a fully suited Buzz EV and how many they plan to manufacture in 2026/27/28?

 

Those are questions that I will need to research. Have patience because I do enjoy reading and will eventually come up with some answers.

 

I ask for this reason:

If Tesla's sensor suite is robust enough to enable them to offer legit autonomy, the autonomy race is over. They will be able scale robotaxis more than everyone else put together, x10.

Every Tesla built has the same hardware whether FSD is enabled or not. The sensor suite for Waymo vehicles is estimated to cost $50,000-$100.000 in addition to the cost of the car itself. It sounds like these VW Buzz EVs will cost similarly to Waymo. At scale, Tesla may be able to offer robotaxi service of ~$0.25 cents/mile average, which would nuke Waymo and probably both Uber and Lyft.

I'm not saying Tesla will definitely get there, but I now believe their chances sometime in 2026 or 2027 are decent. Two huge cues I'm looking for are (1) Tesla removing the safety monitors within a few months and (2) start of Cybercab production in the next two years. If IF IF those two things happen...

 

They have three trim tiers/levels. Slightly rounding the prices gives a range of $60 - low 70's for those three choices. At the moment, I haven't found anything stating that they are building the Buzz at their plant in Tennessee. So imported for now which is causing an issue with the current buzz about Tariffs. So they have hurdles to overcome and thus nothing definite about future production numbers.

2025 Volkswagen ID.Buzz Microbus

Range, Charging, and Battery Life

The ID.Buzz comes with an 86.0-kWh battery pack as standard, and Volkswagen says rear-wheel-drive models will offer up to 234 miles of range per charge. All-wheel drive models are said to offer up to 231 miles per charge. In our real-world 75-mph highway range testing, we fell short of those estimates, with the AWD ID.Buzz achieving a result of 190 miles and the RWD ID.Buzz achieving 180 miles. VW also claims that those who plug into a DC fast-charger will be able to charge from 10 to 80 percent in as little as 30 minutes; in our testing, the RWD ID.Buzz charged from 10 percent to 90 percent in 33 minutes.

 

That's what Musk wants you to think but it's not really true. This assumes that Waymo hardware can't get cheaper over time. It believe it already has gotten cheaper, LIDAR has gotten way cheaper now.

Waymo is also selling the software which means it's just Tesla's manufacturing against every other company's supply chain, they can easily start producing Waymo compatible cars for a lot lower.

 

What does "a lot cheaper" mean? My understanding is some of these "cheaper" LIDARs people talk about aren't what Waymo uses. All LIDAR sensors are not equal.

Tesla's advantage of being an OEM one-stop-shop is huge. It means they can ramp production to scale quickly just using Model Ys, much less Cybercabs. Plus their hardware is so cheap it's installed in every vehicle regardless of whether FSD is activated or not.

I hear you on other OEMs, but the fact they have to split the pot and coordinate with Waymo, Uber/Lyft and/or Mobileye creates a lot of complications. IMO, they will have to pool all of their resources and data to create a viable competitor. Even if they do, they can't do it anywhere close to the cost of Tesla IF Tesla's sensor suite is good enough.

If/when Tesla pulls the safety monitors, they will swamp Waymo in no time because they can use Model Ys. They could have 5-10x more robotaxis available and the price will be a lot lower.

But there are sooo many ifs.

 

Ford has been exploring options in regards to the Tech side and apparently might do a deal with Waymo rather than with Tesla. Since Waymo is focused on the Tech while Tesla does both Tech and build cars, Waymo won't be seen as the direct competitor that Tesla is.

Ford CEO shuts down Tesla Full Self-Driving deal, says Waymo is better

Ford has long been rumored to be in discussions with Tesla about licensing its Full Self-Driving technology, but CEO Jim Farley has now shut down those rumors.

Farley confirmed that Ford talked with Tesla, but he believes Waymo has a better solution.

Back in 2021, Tesla CEO Elon Musk mentioned that he had early discussions with other automakers about licensing self-driving technology, but these discussions didn’t lead to any agreements.

In 2023, the CEO announced that Tesla would be open to licensing Autopilot and FSD to other automakers.

Ford invested approximately $1 billion in Argo AI, a self-driving startup in partnership with Volkswagen. However, it ceased funding the company in 2022, and Argo AI was subsequently dissolved, with the two automakers integrating their technology.

After this setback, Ford said it would partner with self-driving companies once the technology is further developed.

Waymo has first been focused on developing its own vehicles for autonomous ride-hailing, while Tesla has been trying to bring consumer autonomous vehicles to market.

These different approaches have been reversing lately with Tesla launching a pilot program for its own autonomous ride-hailing fleet after years of failing making its consumer vehicles self-driving.

 

I expected Ford to make this decision. Waymo is a safer choice for now, especially with Musk making himself radioactive to nearly everybody across the spectrum.

 

The reported numbers for First Quarter 2025 had Tesla with enough Cash to survive soft sales, loss of most (all?) income from Carbon Credits etc.

With Tesla Earnings coming out next week on July 23. I won't spend too much time on the rather stale First Quarter numbers.

However, some of Musk's other projects - companies such as xAI and x (Twitter) are either burning Cash or are marginally profitable. It appears that he wants to tap into the Tesla Piggy Bank (Cash Reserves) to prop up xAI and X (Twitter).


Tesla investment in xAI would stretch beyond automotive roots

Elon Musk has never liked Tesla being identified as purely a carmaker — and now he could distance the company even further from its automobile heritage with a deal to invest in his AI startup xAI.

Why it matters: Musk is proposing that Tesla help back xAI, which owns the social media platform X and the ChatGPT competitor Grok.

• Tesla investors will need to approve the deal in a shareholder vote, he said Sunday on X: "It's not up to me. If it was up to me, Tesla would have invested in xAI long ago."

State of play: The world's richest person has always described Tesla as a tech company with expertise in autonomy and robotics — not an automaker.

• Investors have largely agreed, putting the stock in a special elevated class apart from its automotive contemporaries.

The intrigue: Musk's endorsement of a Tesla investment in xAI comes days after high-profile Tesla bull and Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives floated the possibility of a merger between Tesla and xAI.

• "Adding Tesla's data to xAI would create a formidable AI play ... a frontrunner when it comes to AI and not launching from the backseat," Ives said. "There obviously are some concerns, but the benefits far outweigh the risks."
• Musk retorted: "Shut up, Dan."
• An investment would bring them closer together, though, without the regulatory hassles of a merger.

By the numbers: xAI is expected to burn about $13 billion in 2025 as it invests heavily in Grok, effectively necessitating the pursuit of outside partners, Bloomberg reported.

• The company is pursuing a valuation of up to $200 billion in its next fundraising round, FT and Reuters reported.

Between the lines: Tesla is not exactly a fountain of cash on its own.

• The company's vehicle sales have been plunging in 2025 amid a backlash to Musk's association with President Trump — but if he's concerned about the drop-off, he's not showing it.
• As WSJ noted earlier this month, Musk "has already moved beyond caring about cars."
• He's stated repeatedly that the company's future is predicated on autonomy — with all the value in the AI capability and none in actual car production.

Reality check: You can't have self-driving cars without the car part.

What's next: Tesla set its annual meeting in November, where investors will presumably vote on a possible xAI investment.

 

Since I read enough about the business side of

• Musk
• Tesla
• xAI
• X (Twitter)

I decided to just focus the conversation on those things and not spend much time on Politics.

 

This is similar to the 'competition is coming'. Yes, competition is coming, but its not coming from the big names in American markets.

Waymo is not competition - its the first hurdle rate. The entire road system is built on vision that can be navigated by even a mildly mentally handicapped person. The bar is actually pretty low and Waymo is no where close with their current solution. I have zero doubt vision is the cheapest solution at <3k computer on each vehicle. Tesla & xAI have massive amount of computer to continue advancement of Tesla Vision. Eventually there will be competition, but by that time, Tesla will have moved on to something else, similar to EV's being old news.