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Cam Smith: The Aircraft Carrier

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Htown Legend, Feb 25, 2025.

  1. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    I mean regardless the fact he spent that little time in A+ and AA is impressive.
     
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  2. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    I can. I thought he was going take a little longer to figure it out. Once he starts lifting the ball, his numbers will be sick. He has a faster bat than Cal Raleigh.
     
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  3. Nook

    Nook Member

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    There are guys that blew through the minors or skipped the minors before Cam - about half of them were stars and half of those Hall of Famers.

    some names I can think of are Larry Dierker, Willie Mays, Dwight Gooden, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Ken Griffey Jr, Bob Feller, David Clyde, Ryan Wagner, Pete Incaviglia… they either had almost no minor league time or were up at like 19-20 years old. Albert Pujols was another one. Mike Trout was pretty quick too. Garett Crochet…Dave Winfield, Olerud and Darren Dreifort too.
     
  4. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    Time will tell.
     
  5. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Cam has put himself into the ROY race.

    I think there are 3 clear rookies who are, head and shoulders, above the others with a couple who are close enough that a big week could raise them into that group. I see no pitchers who are in the race at this point.

    Wilson is still the clear leader. Because of media and legacy/name he will need to be knocked off the hill. He has lost steam after a scorching start, though.

    Narvaez of Boston and Cam are the others in striking distance.

    Dominguez of the Yankees and Kurtz of the A's round out the top 5 in my ROY power rankings on July 4th.

    R: Wilson 42, Dominguez 37, Cam 34, Narvaez 34, Williamson 31

    RBI: Wilson 40, Cam 38, Kurtz 32, Dominguez 30, Narvaez 28

    HR: Kurtz 12, Wilson 9, Cam 7, Narvaez 7, Muncy 7

    SB: Simpson 23, Dominguez 13, Magnum 11, Meidroth 11, Mister 8.

    200+ PAs
    AVG: Wilson. 339, Cam .291, Narvaez .277, Dominguez .267, Williamson .259

    OB%: Wilson .380, Cam .359, Narvaez .354, Meidroth. 346, Dominguez .345

    SLG: (Kurtz .489 in 196 PAs), Wilson .463, Narvaez .446, Cam .445, Dominguez .407, Misner. 345

    OPS: Wilson .853, Cam .804, Narvaez .801, (Kurtz .800), Dominguez. 753, Campbell .664

    wRC+: Wilson 138, Cam 129, Narvaez 121, (Kurtz 116), Dominguez 114, Meidroth 90.

    OPS+: Wilson 138, Cam 125, Narvaez 122, (Kurtz 120), Dominguez 112, Meidroth 86.

    fWAR: Wilson 2.9, Narvaez 2.6, Cam 1.9, Magnum 1.1, Dominguez 1.0, Meidroth 1.0

    bWAR: Narvaez 2.6, Cam 2.5, Wilson 2.1, Dominguez 1.1, Mangum 1.0.
     
    #725 IdStrosfan, Jul 4, 2025 at 9:07 AM
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2025 at 9:36 AM
  6. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member

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    Cam will have to continue to ascend and Wilson will have to go into a major slump to have a chance. There is also still a great deal of media bias against the Astros. The eventual Las Vegas Athletics will be a major media darling for a while leading up to the move.
     
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  7. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Will Clark, Bob Hoerner, Pete Incaviliga are 3 more.

    DD
     
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  8. Tomstro

    Tomstro Member

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    Like Cam, these guys all went to college first and played 3 or 4 years. More common for a college phenom to skip the minors than a HS grad. (Captain obvious moment, sorry)
     
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  9. sealclubber1016

    Supporting Member

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    Cam's BABIP is currently at an unsustainable .392, so I was curious as to some of the supporting data. His expected OBA and BA are only slightly below his actual numbers, even with that huge BABIP.

    248 qualified hitters according to statcast. He ranks 9th in LD%....and 235th in Pop up ratio (usually auto outs). He has put the ball in play 178 times and has a measly 5 pop ups.

    His walk and K rates have come down the last 100 PA, so I think he has just been attacking hittable pitches earlier. His expected (and real) numbers over that stretch are superstar level.

    So while his BABIP suggest some luck in regards to his overall season numbers, there's a lot of underlying data that still suggests he's already a great hitter, and that he's adjusting to the league a lot better than the league is adjusting to him.
     
  10. Major

    Major Member

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    We have real-time data on this - no need to guess.

    https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbalroty/pro-baseball-american-league-rookie-of-the-year

    A week ago, Wilson had a 90% chance to win ROY and Cam was around 3%. (Kurtz was 6%ish). Today, Wilson is at a bit over 50% and Cam is around 30%.
     
  11. SamCassell

    SamCassell Member

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    Cam's profile coming into the season was a low launch angle that was limiting his power potential... he hits it very hard at a low angle. That's going to result in fewer pop ups, because he's getting under the ball less, and also result in a higher BABIP. So I think having an above-average BABIP is sustainable. He's a star.
     
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  12. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    His low launch angle usually means lots of ground outs and double plays. It only works for him because he hits the ball harder than Cal Raleigh. He should fix it this off season. If the shift were still legal, he wouldn't nearly be as successful. He is playing below his potential.
     
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  13. Buck Turgidson

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    It would be hilarious to see a shift to the right side against a RH hitter
     
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  14. H-Town Info

    H-Town Info Member

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  15. Buck Turgidson

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    I have that same hat in different colors
     
  16. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Some of the same deal going on with meyers. His babip is high but it’s basically all his contact profile. It’s why Jake has a sub 100 iso and why cam smith only has 7 HR when he hits the ball hard as hell. Jake needs to keep his profile Cam needs the babip to come down while the iso get higher because he hits more in the air.
     
  17. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    How can you guys forget Eddie Gaedel, who never played a game in the minor leagues and has a record 1.000 on base percentage for his MLB career.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Some others to not play in the minors that I don't believe have been mentioned:

    Bob Feller
    Mel Ott
    George Sisler
    Frankie Frisch
    Gil Hodges
    Catfish Hunter
    Al Kaline
    Harmon Killebrew
    Sandy Koufax
    Dave Roberts
    Dave Winfield
    David Clyde
    Denny Walling
    Claude Osteen
    Herb Washington (look him up.)
     
  19. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Dave Winfield won the college world series as a pitcher and had a college ERA less than 3. He could have been an Ohtani if they would have let him.
     
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  20. marks0223

    marks0223 2017 and 2022 World Series Champions
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