I don’t view the 13th position player as a meaningful on-field resource. I actually think that role requires someone who is ok not playing and willing to contribute off the field. So I don’t think any resources should be spent upgrading that spot over Salazar, Hummel, Guilllorme, or whoever. I don’t know how much impact Salazar has had on the pitching staff since he got called up, but it may be a very underrated contribution. My current prescription for the Astros position player roster: Out: Rodgers, Hummel, Guillorme In: Yordan, Melton, 1 good LH bat who can play OF or 2B The pitching prescription would be premature until we get closer to the deadline and have a better idea of how the rookie SP are performing and how the injured SP rehabs have progressed. But for now I would prescribe trying hard for a ToR SP, but holding fast to not overpay. If they can’t find a match there, maybe pivot and add another elite RHRP to replace Ort, making any Game 3-4 playoff game a potential bullpen game where you have the new guy plus Dubin, Sousa, and Okert try to pitch 6 innings.
The only place I do not agree with this is on Caratini. As long as there is a chance Diaz is injured Caratini is anything but a luxury. Salazar is an ideal 13th man. In the event of an injury to Daiz, Salazar is not a starting catcher under any circumstance.
I didn’t mean luxury in the sense that he’s expendable. I meant luxury in the sense that he’s significantly better than most backup C.
If you wanted to sell: Cubs get: Framber, Abreu. Their lineup is basically perfect, they have massive holes in starting rotation and bullpen. They have to think that makes them the favorites to win the NL astros get- best OF prospect (almost top 50) best middle infielder prospect (line 75th) 3 arms from their system (they get to veto the top 5, we get to pick 2 we want, they get to pick 5 more to veto, we get to pick the last arm). that leaves the Astros with top 100 type prospects with those 2, melton, cam and Matthew’s plus a bunch of arms. rest of the year the Astros rotation: Brown, Walter, Gusto, Gordon, Ullola. Arrighetti replaces Gordon, LMJ replaces Gusto, Javier replaces worst of Walter or Ullola. playoff pitching staff: Sap- brown, Javier, Arrighetti- bridge- LMJ, Garcia, Ullola or Walter Leverage- Hader, Dubon, Okert. Wild cards- Souza, king. that’s a good enough staff to beat anyone in the coin flip that is the playoffs. that’s a stacked roster going forward for the rest of the decade.
If you hate sell (and crane would) buy side with Cleveland: astros get- Stephen Kwan Cleveland gets: Matthews, Melton, Meyers. Their OF probably gets better if you believe Matthews would be a plus OF even with Kwan leaving because the other 2 guys suck. They also get cheaper and a lot of upside athlete service time. If you need to give them a non- Ullola pitcher to make it work fine. for the Astros: Cam plays 3B, Paredes 2B, Kwan RF, Altuve LF resulting lineup: Peña, Kwan, Yordan, Paredes, Altuve, Diaz, Cam, Walker, Chas. Bench- Caratini PH, Dubon defensive replacement. Better Astros team with Yordan and 2 or 3 starters healthy from LMJ, Javier, Arrighetti and Garcia than the 2022 WS champs imo. nobody worth a **** in any position player sense in the entire upper minors, however the entire position player roster is intact in 26 other than backup catcher. And you should be pretty damn good in 2027 as well as the only guy gone after 26 would be Chas. After 27 you lose: Pena, Paredes, Walker, Kwan and have a serious reload unless your farm system seriously overperforms.
Kwan reminds me of that A hole David Ekstein who seemed to be a thorn in the Astros side whenever we played them. Man, he used to pisss me off
I hate him. If he was an Astro he’d immediately be my second favorite player behind Altuve. He’s a rich man’s version of Eckstein.
Potentially available 2B with xwOBA >.320 (min 100 pa): Kody Clemens Luis Garcia Jr. Brandon Lowe Otto Lopez Brett Baty Willi Castro Andres Gimenez Potentially available SP with xFIP <3.60 (min 30 ip): Merrill Kelly Drew Rasmussen Kevin Gausman In: Kelly, Baty Out: Dezenzo, Sullivan, Pecko, Gordon, Whitcomb, McCormick Playoff roster: SS Pena 3B Paredes DH Alvarez LF Altuve 2B Baty C Diaz RF Smith 1B Walker CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Caratini, Salazar, Trammell SP: Framber, Brown, Kelly, McCullers RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Okert, Dubin, Sousa, Javier, Arrighetii, Gusto
I will break down the logic I use to come up with these hypothetical trades using this example: O’Hearn will be bringing about $12M (1.2 fwar) in expected value, owed about $4M, so only about $8M in surplus value; apply a premium for how well he’s playing and the fact that he can play both OF and 1B, plus the expected sellers’ market, and estimate that the Orioles will get between $15M and $25M in surplus value in return for him. That takes major assets (Melton, Matthews) off the table and lines up with a trade around 2-3 2nd or 3rd tier prospects. As a team with a competitive big league roster and a good farm system, Baltimore will be looking for assets that can help them win in 2026-2028. They have projected holes at 1B and in their rotation. Houston has tradeable 2nd and 3rd tier assets at P and OF. Whitcomb, Dezenzo, and Baez are prospects with value who could be used at 1B but are also able to play other positions. Arrighetti, Gordon, Gusto, Ullola, Blubaugh, Pecko, Walter, Dombroski, Fleury, Knorr, Santos, and Santa are pitching prospects with value who could contribute to a big league pitching staff next season. Baltimore is like to want a package of 2-3 prospects (as 1 will carry too much risk and 4 will spread the value too thin) and most likely the package will center around 1 or 2 good prospects plus one throw-in or lesser prospect. Ullola and Arrighetti should be off limits for rentals. Houston will probably be very reluctant to trade someone from their current rotation (Walter, Gordon, Gusto) unless they get other guys healthy and/or trade for a P. So grouping the prospects the return would look like this: 2 of: Dezenzo, Blubaugh, Pecko, Baez 1 of: Whitcomb, Dombroski, Santa, Santos, Fleury, Knorr Blubaugh is not pitching well. Baez is not hitting well. Dezenzo is hurt, but I expect him back in time to be tradable. Pecko is currently healthy and pitching well in AA. Santos is hurt. Houston will want to stay under the CBT and adding O’Hearn would get them very very close to going over, so they’ll want Baltimore to eat a little money. So here’s my hypothetical trade: Astros get: Ryan O’Hearn $2M Orioles get: P Ethan Pecko OF/1B Zach Dezenzo P Jose Fleury It’s a high cost for a defensively limited rental bat, and adding O’Hearn means Altuve will play 2B most days. But O’Hearn adds an elite LH bat to the lineup without giving up any of their top 5 prospects. The Orioles add Dezenzo, who they can use the remainder of 2025 to see if he can be their everyday 1B, but otherwise is a solid bench/depth bat. They also get 2 SP prospects, one of which (Pecko) has a very high ceiling, and both of which would have a chance to make their 2026 opening day rotation. I would not really like this trade for Houston because I am very high on Pecko and also really like Dezenzo. But it’s about what I think it would take.
Clemens is interesting. Hasn't hit for **** prior to this season but looks like a completely different guy at the plat this year.
At this point the only teams that you can say are locks or near locks to sell are the A's, White Sox, Nationals, Marlins, Pirates, and Rockies. As bad as the Orioles have been they are only 6.5 games out from a wild card spot. They aren't as likely to be sellers as everyone thinks. The extra wild card spot ruined the trade deadline in my opinion. Too many fake buyers and not enough sellers. Price has gotten nuts to make a trade.
I think the Orioles need to be both buyers AND sellers. They need pitching if they want a real shot at competing in 2026, and that pitching needs to be MLB ready, since they are technically not out of it in 2025. But with position players like O'Hearn and Mullins who are rentals but very valuable, and very low odds to win this season, the smart thing is to trade them. I don't know what the Astros are thinking. It would be risky, but I think the Orioles would like Gusto, Gordon, or somebody who can pitch in the rotation now but have upside and years of control. For example, I think both Astros and Orioles would be better after a Gusto for O'Hearn trade.
The Astros are again feeling out the top tier starting pitching market and some bats. They have spoken to some interesting teams - Tampa about Rasmussen. The Orioles about Westburg. The Brewers about Peralta. The Indians about Josh Naylor. The Angels about Yoan Moncada. The Cardinals about Nolan Gorman. The Twins about Chris Paddack. I am just passing it on.... most teams said they were not ready to make moves.... Astros offered so top tier prospects for some of these guys, others not so much.
He hits for power - draws walks and is passable defensively. He has had this rough thumbnail sketched out profile for awhile. His low average puts pressure on him hitting homers, but the fact he can play the infield makes him more viable. I wouldn't trade a lot for him, but it is possible that he has a few seasons in a row where he starts and is playable.
Astros get: 2B Nolan Gorman Cardinals get: CF Jacob Melton P Ryan Gusto P Jose Fleury Astros get: SP Drew Rasmussen Rays get: SP Spencer Arrighetti OF Pedro Leon P Alex Santos II Playoff roster: SS Pena 3B Paredes DH Alvarez LF Altuve C Diaz 2B Gorman 1B Walker RF Smith CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Caratini, Trammell, Salazar SP: Framber, Brown, Rasmussen, McCullers RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Okert, Dubin, Sousa, Javier, Walter, Gordon
Okay - thank you. I can't keep everything straight in my head. They like that he is on a one year deal if I remember right so he is affordable in trade. His team isn't ready to throw in the towel yet. Angels also are not throwing in the towel.
Drew Rasmussen was a surprise to me. I have heard Nolan Gorman to the Astros for two years, someone with the Astros really likes him.
