I'm sure he is going to pick the best player available based on the org's valuation of players. I just think finding quality position players is harder for the Astros which is why I think they will take a position player, but who knows. If there another Paul Skenes available, he has to take him.
I don't see us drafting a pitcher in the first round unless Brown drafts a pitcher in the first round.
I was looking over the Braves and Astros draft picks recently and it looks like Brown took a first round pitcher the last 2 drafts he ran in ATL. The Astros have recently used their 1st round picks on up the middle college guys as medium risk, high reward type players. The last couple drafts had the Astros use early picks to take pitchers with injury risks in Tredwell and Forcucci. Brown seems to like college players who are scratching the surface of their potential over guys with lengthy track records of success. In total Wood was the kind of player I thought the Astros might target, though there were a few other pitchers that seemed similar who didn't just throw a no-hitter on a huge stage and therefore might fall to their next pick. One thing to keep in mind, without a 2nd round pick, they basically only get one chance to take a player they think will go in the top 3 rounds, so if they're especially high on a guy they think is likely to go in the 2nd, they might be aggressive and try to get an underslot deal.
I said it upthread but I think a realistic best case scenario is for Houston to target one of the HS IF they expect to be available at 21 (Neyens, Fien, Hammond) and get him to sign for enough under slot that they can go overslot at 95 for either an injury risk college pitcher (in the mold of Forcucci or Tredwell) or an under the radar HS prospect they really like (in the mold of Chase Jaworsky or Rio Ruiz). If they pulled that off they’d probably have to go for a lot of barely slot or under slot senior signs in rounds 4-10, which is fine since that plays to their strengths of finding older college pitchers they can level up. Then 11-20 would be roster filler, without the normal overslot HS picks in the 11th. If they do it right, I think they can come away with 2 premium talents from this draft plus another half dozen hidden gem pitchers.
I thought the new Astros thinking was pay max slot ($150K) for the 11-20 picks and pick up guys looking to go pro moreso than staying/going in college.
I'm not sure they'd really even need the 1st pick to go underslot to get a Forcucci/Jaworsky type at 95. Forcucci basically got their 5% overage money. Going significantly underslot would probably enable either floating a 2nd round talent (unlikely since there's likely to be more teams with money picking ahead of them in the 3rd) taking a premium talent later ala Clifford or taking several upside plays. Matthews going underslot got Jaworsky in the 5th plus Ochoa and Huezo. I think the Astros have historically been too risk averse to bet their only day 1 pick on a bat-first high schooler. Dana's scouting background and the kind of obvious need for star hitters probably enables them to take that sort of risk. The only thing I'd really be shocked by is a high school pitcher, so of course that's what they're going to do.
The Blue Jays and Braves situation has been discussed in the past. In the case of the Braves, the decision was ultimately on the shoulders of Anthopolus. However, from a practical standpoint, the decisions were made by Brown as he was deferred to by Anthopolus. Brown would take notes from local scouts and compare them to his own notes, and then dispatch the scouts from one region to watch the kids that Brown liked from another region. Then Brown would usually watch the kid he liked at some point. It worked very well in Atlanta. Most of the players in Atlanta were guys that Brown pursued. As for with the Astros - he has said that he has a like for high bat speed and plus "baseball athletes". He also has said that the Astros Murphy/Miller have a lot of say in Houston, more than in Atlanta - so hard to know which pitcher is Brown's and which is from the two headed monster. The guy that is deeply involved in basically everything is Gavin Dickey.
The Astros current decision makers had no impact on most of those years. If a pitcher is the best player available when they draft I believe they will take him.
Another mock:https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...-20-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-first-round-picks I think Houston will take one of these 5 guys at 21: HS 3B Xavier Neyens College SS Wehiwa Aloy HS 3B Josh Hammond College OF Jace LaViolette HS 2B Sean Gamble
I don’t think he will be available at 21 but he is also a pretty low ceiling high floor player that doesn’t seem to fit Dana Brown’s target profile, although I do like him.
