I agree with your take on polls in general T_J, but you still haven't given me any proof that Zogby is the only poll he uses. The list shows every state with the date and poll used since Sept. There are multiple polls in the last few days for every state. So brushing me off with "NEXT" isn't going to work. You need to back up and finish proving your point for once.
Dude, go to his website and mouse over the battleground states. They all use the Zogby poll and they all contribute to the current vote tally. The historical information is worthless in calculating his lead for Kerry.
I'm glad you brought this up. There have been several articles about this and how these people who aren't counted, and the response of the pollsters has been to just dismiss them with a flat out insult: "Well, they're just a bunch of poor people who don't vote anyway...." That couldn't be further from the truth. I don't have a landline, nor do many of my friends. We don't need them, it's not because we're poor, in fact everybody I know who does it has a six figure income and is under 30. I don't have one because it's redundant and silly and a waste. There is nothing that I can't do on my cellphone that I could do on a land line. But everybody I know who doesn't have one is voting, and they all tend to be voitng a certain way.
My prediction: A damn close race, with plenty of b****ing and legal action from whoever comes out on the short end.
That 18-29 year-old cell phone survey is pretty interesting. I was looking at a consultant's site the other day (a local guy I've worked with who is pretty damn accurate with his predictions) and he was talking about this. What was interesting to him was the fact that this base of voters seemed to be much more active this year than in previous years and that it could have a big impact on the election. I'm reserving judgement myself. 18-29 year-old's are all well and good, but they have to get out and vote. This is such an under-represented portion of the electorate. For them to have even a minor impact, they'll need to turn out in fairly large numbers.
Jeff--I am with you on wanting to see how the 18-29 voter turnout is this election. I am 20 and go to a public school in Arkansas, which is sort of a battleground state, even though it looks pretty firmly on Bush's side right now. I can't tell you how sick I am of all these "get out the vote" ads, campaigns, and people. I have voted and have worked as a part of the Young Democrats here on campus to get people registered, but I'm ready for everything to be over. From my perspective, there has certainly big a much larger effort to get out the young vote than before. However, I still know quite a few of my friends aren't planning on voting. I hope that a significant amount of young people get out and vote just so I know that sitting through all of these "choose or lose" type campaigns has been worth something.
I'm reserving judgement as well. Ever since the voting age was lowered to 18, (heck, before) there has been all this talk about the influence younger voters would have on elections. The sad truth, up until now? They don't vote, not in the numbers everyone expected, and that has not changed. If it changes in this election, and makes a difference, it will be revolutionary. I'm not going to hold my breath. Keep D&D Civil!!
Weather may play a factor as well. it is going to be cold and wet at least in Central Ohio tomorrow. Might cause a few people to see a line and some puddles to jump to decide to keep going.
The University of New Mexico campus is about as polarized as it can be. You can't walk a few feet without seeing a poster, button, bumper sticker, or a chalked message on the sidewalk. Interestingly Albuquerque was #2 in the nation, according to the local papers for the number and frequency of campaign ads! This city is by far the most populous in this battleground state but still thats a lot of ads. I spent 2 1/2 hours in line to vote saturday and there were a lot of people my age (early 20's) doing the same. If I had to make a guess I think Kerry will take NM. There's a lot of 18-20's voting but they seem to be about 50/50. It'll depend on the Hispanics and American Indians that make up a huge part of the population. Both groups are leaning towards Kerry and if they show up at the polls I think Kerry takes it.
Kerry: 311 Bush: 227 As far as battlegrounds go, Kerry takes New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, New Mexico, and Hawaii. The Osama tape was Dubuyuh's last chance. Instead of giving him a boost, as bin Laden wanted, it is only going to remind voters of Bush's failures. Kerry will take the popular vote, 50-47-2-1. One of the worst eras in American history is about to come to an end!
i'm gonna say i think kerry will win. there is just too much "anybody but bush" sentiment and if kerry's campaign hadn't sucked so bad for so long this wouldn't be close imo. amazing job by bush and co. to still even be in it. i lean slightly for bush (though i'm not voting so it doesn't matter and i'm in Texas so it doesn't matter anyway*) but i think kerry wins 294-244. *insert every vote does matter platitude.
I think the college age voter turn out is hard to predict.. .partly because of the fact that a lot have to go by absentee ballot etc.. hard to predict who will get on the ball quickly and have all their application for absentee ballot etc done
