If Arizona is not ready to give up, they badly needs SP. Their choice of Gordon or Walter and Gusto or Blubaugh for Pavin Smith.
Astros get: P Michael Soroka 2B Luis Garcia Jr. Nats get: IF/OF Shay Whitcomb P Colton Gordon P Jose Fleury P Michael Knorr Garcia is an underrated player, a very good 2B defender with a league average LH bat. Soroka seems to me to be the kind of guy Houston might unlock.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/64...os-trade-deadline-primer-storylines-to-watch/ Rome’s article mentions 3 players as trade candidates: Meyers, Dubon, and McCormick. McCormick would be a pure salary dump included to offset incoming salary, while Meyers would be a sell-high move that banks on Melton being ready to be the everyday CF. Dubon would be somewhere in the middle, not quite a salary dump, but not a player with a ton of surplus value; I can see the logic, but I will be shocked if he’s traded. Brendan Rodgers also profiles as a salary dump candidate. One dark horse for me is Lance McCullers; if he stays healthy, and Houston targets a ToR SP at the deadline (per Jim Crane’s MO), it’s possible McCullers could be shopped in an effort to clear salary. Not something that should be at all considered likely, but something to keep an eye on if Houston needs to get creative. Melton’s injury probably takes the notion of trading Meyers off the table. He’s going to be out at least a month, which simply doesn’t leave time for him to get established enough in the majors to justify trading Meyers while the Astros are in 1st place in their division. If Meyers was traded, the Mets seem to be his most likely landing spot. My guess is Houston will focus on adding a LH 2B, but the pickings could be slim. Never count Houston out of the mix for any available established ToR SP. I think the performances of Gordon and Walter have reduced the potential need for a BoR veteran SP. Lux for a package built around Dezenzo or Whitcomb plus a couple of pitching prospects seems like the most likely deadline outcome to me.
I wouldn't rule out the Astros adding someone as good as Kelly. The other name I would keep an eye on is Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays are over .500%, but Gausman is someone that Astros have attempted to add numerous times and he is under contract for 2026, and he would allow the Astros to off set the loss of Valdez for at least one year. A 1-3 of Valdez, Brown and Gausman or Kelly would be pretty damn good.
I think this is largely right - but I would add that I think it is very possible that the Astros look at outfielders with a strong bat. They can then slide Altuve to second in the playoffs if needed. I also think the Astros would like to add a top starter under contract in 2026 if possible. It solidifies their playoff rotation and lets them compete in 2026 if they lose Valdez. The Astros with Valdez/Brown/Gausman and Hader, Abreu, Okert and King is the best pitching in baseball in a playoff scenario.
Why would the Jays be selling? And how would acquiring a strong OF bat only slide Altuve over to 2B in the playoffs? It would mean the rest of the season, right?
Blue Jays right now are 4-5 over .500, but they have a negative run differential. If they are in line to make a playoff run they will keep Gausman, if they are out of it by the deadline, there is a real chance they finally move Gausman. Yeah - if the Astros acquire a strong outfield bat, we would see Altuve more at second in the regular season. However, in the playoffs the "A" line up would theoretically have Altuve at 2nd base.
I don’t think they are very good but they are 1.5 up in the WC and the teams behind them aren’t good either. We’ll see how it shakes out but I’ll be surprised if they aren’t in the WC race at the deadline. Yeah, I’d rather get a good bat and have Altuve playing more 2B than some mediocre bat that can play 2B. Really think this team has a great chance to win in the playoffs if they will just add one more legit bat. Preferably it’s a LH one but once again would rather add a really good RH bat than a mediocre one like Lux just because he is LH.
Astros get: SP Kevin Gausman OF Daulton Varsho $6M Blue Jays get: CF Jake Meyers P Miguel Ullola OF/1B Luis Baez SP Lance McCullers, Jr. Astros get a lefthanded bat and ToR SP while staying under the CBT threshold. Blue Jays get ready potentially equivalent replacements for both the players they give up plus 2 prospects, so they improve their future outlook without punting on 2025. This may not be enough; I originally had Brice Matthews in there instead of Luis Baez. A lot of variance in valuing Meyers and McCullers (and Varsho for that matter). Astros playoff roster: SS Pena 3B Paredes DH Alvarez C Diaz 2B/LF Altuve 1B Walker LF/CF Varsho RF Smith CF/2B Melton/Dubon Bench: Caratini, McCormick, Salazar SP: Brown, Framber, Gausman, 1 of Walter/Arrighetti/Garcia/Javier/Gusto RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Okert, Dubin, Sousa, 2 of Javier/Gusto/Arrighetti/Walter/Garcia
McCullers has 5/10 full trade protection and wants to be "buried in the H" no chance he is ever traded. I do not see the Astros ever trying, but if they did, I think Lance blocks it.
Good point, I forgot about that. Scratch it off then. Here’s a different one: Astros get: SP Kevin Gausman OF Daulton Varsho Blue Jays get: CF Jake Meyers P Miguel Ullola 2B Brice Matthews SP Colton Gordon Astros get a lefthanded bat and ToR SP. Blue Jays get ready potentially equivalent replacements for both the players they give up plus 2 prospects, so they improve their future outlook without completely punting on 2025. This may not be enough; Toronto would need to value Meyers, Ullola, and Matthews all very highly. A lot of variance in valuing Meyers (and Varsho for that matter). This would put Houston over the tax and cost them a 2nd round pick (and push the Framber compensation pick back to a 4th round instead of a 2nd round pick). Houston might need to toss in another young player (Dezenzo, Whitcomb, Baez?). Astros playoff roster: SS Pena 3B Paredes DH Alvarez C Diaz 2B/LF Altuve 1B Walker LF/CF Varsho RF Smith CF/2B Melton/Guillorme Bench: Dubon, Caratini, Salazar SP: Brown, Framber, Gausman, McCullers RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Okert, Dubin, Sousa, 3 of Javier/Gusto/Arrighetti/Walter/Garcia
Any chance Freddy Peralta will be available? I've seen his name mentioned as a potential trade candidate. He has a team option for next year as well so not a rental. Would love to get him but I'm guessing he'll have lots of interest which might be out of the Astros budget. Awhile ago you mentioned Marcell Ozuna. What about a Ozuna/ Sale package??? But I think both would be rentals. Actually Sale might have a team option. Braves will want to compete next year so I wonder if they hang onto him. Gausman has 1 more year so good for Houston but would the Jays prefer to trade Bassitt who's a free agent. Would they have interest in him as well?
Which position players is Houston looking to upgrade? Each current position player’s best role on a playoff roster: Jeremy Pena: having an MVP level season at SS Isaac Paredes: having an all-star level season at 3B Jake Meyers: having a career year as a top 10 CF in MLB Yainer Diaz: seems to have gotten back on track after a rough April, he’s a solid starting catcher Cam Smith: the homers haven’t arrived but he’s been an extremely good defensive RF with a league average bat; while he’s not yet ready to carry the team, he’s also not somebody any team would be looking to displace Jose Altuve: has looked good in June, he’s is best used as a DH, but is also fine as a hidden defensive player slotting in at whichever of 2B or LF projects to have the fewest fielding opportunities Christian Walker: a sub 700 ops in every month so far is extremely troubling but he’s not going anywhere this season due to his contract; he may be benched for the playoffs if he doesn’t come to life, but he will be on the roster Victor Caratini: having a rough June after an amazing April-May, he’s a luxury as a backup C Mauricio Dubon: an ideal utility player, currently miscast as the “starting” 2B Cesar Salazar: an ideal 13th man, especially on a playoff roster; a LH solid defensive C who has a plus contact profile on offense and can play multiple other positions while assisting with game planning and pitcher management Luis Guillorme: a viable versatile bench piece with the added feature of hitting lefthanded and rarely striking out, if it weren’t for the presence of Dubon he’d have a surefire place on the roster. I’d like to see him stick on the roster to add his LH bat to the lineup as needed until Houston is able to acquire a better LH 2B. Cooper Hummel: a viable 13th position player who boasts a LH bat, good corner OF defense, and elite minor league on-base skills, with the added bonus of being able to serve as a 3rd/emergency C. He or Salazar would be my pick to be sent out once Chas McCormick, Zach Dezenzo, Shay Whitcomb, or Jacob Melton returns to the 4th OF role (there’s currently only room for one of those players on this roster). Brendan Rodgers: hard to see him sticking on this roster much longer, as the organization has clearly given up on the idea of him as the primary 2B and he’s not as suited for a bench role as Dubon or Guillorme. He is my pick for who would be let go once Yordan Alvarez returns.
Now for the pitchers: Hunter Brown: having a Cy Young level season Framber Valdez: having an all-star level season Josh Hader: one of the best closers in the league Bryan Abreu: one of the best setup men in the league Brandon Walter: he’s only had 3 starts but so far he has been dominant and his underlying numbers don’t point to any major impending decline. If he keeps this up, he’s Dallas Keuchel. For now they cannot do anything but keep running him out there to get him to 40+ ip to see how good he really is; luckily that threshold should arrive just before the trade deadline Bryan King: has performed well as the 7th inning man Steven Okert: 34% k, 4%bb, having a career resurgence and is an elite 6th inning reliever who could easily slot into the 7th or even 8th with the way he is pitching Shawn Dubin: has emerged as an elite middle reliever who could potentially merit leverage opportunities Colton Gordon: a 3.30 xfip over 30 innings as a rookie SP makes it hard to justify any cost to replace him, so for now he’s pitched his way into a long term roster spot Ryan Gusto: he’s currently the SP3, a role he is miscast in, but he’s acquitted himself well and plays up in low leverage/multi-inning relief, so he has a spot on the roster and is not someone you look to replace in that role Bennett Sousa: 38% k, 4% bb has him looking very underrated and a luxury as a team’s 5th or 6th best RP Kaleb Ort: his leash has shortened over the course of the season; the stuff is there but the consistency is not, and he might be somebody the Astros look to replace if they find a good RH RP on the market Jason Alexander: currently on the roster as an emergency spot starter, he will be sent down when one of McCullers, Arrighetti, Garcia, or Javier returns
The bottom 4 are all, hopefully, upgraded. Salazar: Only needed if Caratini is used fairly regularly with Diaz in the same lineup. This would be less than ideal, as Victor would be playing in place of Yordan, Walker, or Altuve. He could be a 14th man in the 1st round, though. I woukd be fine with him as the 14th position player who never sees the field Guillorme: Defense first veteran who should likely be on the roster if Dubon is still starting regularly, which is very likely but not ideal. Hummel: If he's on the roster watch football. Rodgers: See Hummel above. The good news is that Yordan, Dezenzo, and Melton should be back from injury. Hummel and Rodgers only make the roster if injuries force their hands. That leaves 1-2 roster spots ( choice of 13 or 14 position players) and ideally they are upgrades from Salazar and Guillorme.
