Of course he has peaked. The dude is 30 years old. You don't expect someone at that age to still improve significantly. Whether last season was the beginning of decline or just a bad year remains to be seen. In fact, he also had a bad shooting season before joining the Rockets, which was after his all star season. Then he bounced back to a good shooting season with us. So it seems that FVV is very inconsistent year over year. You don't know which version of him shows up next season. You don't know which version of him shows up next GAME.
To give people some point of reference, here's a list of FA's and their roughly expected contract AAV's this summer, sourced from the Bobby Marks and Yossi Gozlans of the world. James Harden (All-NBA this year): $35M-$40M Julius Randle: $31M PO opt-in Myles Turner: $30-35M Cam Thomas: $20-25M Naz Reid: $18-20M Nickeil Alexander Walker: $14M NTMLE Ty Jerome: $14M NTMLE Bobby Portis: $13M PO opt-in Dorian Finney Smith: $14-16M Dennis Schroder: $9M RMLE D'Angelo Russell: $6M TMLE Malcolm Brogdon: Vet min Tyus Jones: Vet min Now, look at this list and look at 2024-25 Fred VanVleet. 14/5/3 on 37/34/81. You're going to tell me FVV slots into this group at $33M AAV? 2x Naz Reid? 2.5x Nickeil Alexander Walker? 4x Dennis Schroder? 10x Brogdon and Jones? I don't even like every one of those players so much, but let's be real about the market here.
It's funny how Cavs want to get rid of Garland, a 40% career 3pt shooter because he makes 39m/year. I'd gladly swap the two players if it meant we had to pay Garland 39M/year.
Jak is bad on D and a worse shooter than Green (currently). Amen being an offball guy limits him a lot, it just makes him a worse version of Mobley imo. He also cant shoot 3s so whats the value in that? Amen must be an on ball guy if he is ever gonna be one of the Rox best players.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...2025-deals-myles-turner-more-stars-get-summer Fred VanVleet Best free agent fit: Houston The deal I'd offer: Three years, $80 million. (The second year has $15 million in guaranteed money and the third season is a team option.) The next contract for VanVleet will play a role in how much flexibility Houston has this offseason and in future years. The Rockets could exercise his $44.9 million team option by June 29 and then use the guard as a valuable trade chip if a deal materializes (potentially for Kevin Durant). However, by picking up the option, Houston becomes a luxury tax team over both aprons. The more logical play is to decline the option and work out a new contract with additional years but less money in the first year. For example, a salary that starts at $29 million (and then declines each season) has Houston $20 million below the second apron. VanVleet eventually recoups the $44.9 million option that is declined, but over two seasons. Because of possible extensions for young Rockets forwards Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason, the second year for VanVleet is partially protected and the third season is a team option. In the unlikely scenario Houston declines the option and does not sign VanVleet, they would have the $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception available.
For me, it is either exercise the option or let him walk. No more extra years for a short declining PG. DD
I hear Ty Jerome is looking for a mid-level exception…. That shooting could do us wonders. Ime’s hard on for Fred is gonna be the downfall of this rebuild
This is the lowest deal I've seen from a reasonable member of the media that has an understanding of how the CBA works. I don't see nonguaranteed money in the 2nd year, but I do think the third year is the important year. Odds are good the deal will not affect rotation players at all if the third year is a team option (other than FVV is in the rotation instead of a likely worse guard).
So if you want to use Marks and Yossi as frame of reference of what players are valued: FVV's value should be assumed to be in the 3/80 ( with some NG money and option) to 3/100 range based on their assessments.
I see way too many Rockets fans on social media saying we should extend FVV to 3years 90M. Rockets are cooked if we pay FVV anything over 3years 60M. I'd rather draft a PG at #10 and gamble with his rookie year than pay FVV anything above 20M/year and I already think that's generous.
I think Fred stays but I’m hoping we pick up his option rather than extending him. Hopefully Reed is able to take over by the end of the season. in fact, I’m starting a petition. If the choices are extend Fred for 3yrs or pick up the bloated option, I want us to pick up the bloated team option.
My hope is we overpaid him the beginning of his Rockets tenure with a wink-wink he'd resign for a team friendly deal. Does anyone really believe he was worth $45 million?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/64...ts-2025-lebron-james-harden-jonathan-kuminga/ Fred VanVleet | G | Rockets Age: 31 BORD$: $36,986,737 VanVleet has a team option for 2025-26. VanVleet’s $44.9 million option that presents some very interesting options for the Rockets. One presumes Houston wants him back, and based on this BORD$ number, a fair three-year deal for VanVleet would land in the neighborhood of $105 million to $110 million. The Rockets have some leverage here given the lack of alternate landing spots for VanVleet in free agency, so let’s say they can shave it to $100 million or so. But there are many paths to get there. One of them is to have VanVleet opt in to the $44 million but agree to a multi-year extension at a lower number; he would not be able to sign the extension until July, but the team and player could agree on terms before picking up the option. Tacking on two (or even three) years in the $28 million range could help the Rockets navigate a stretch where they are likely to become much more expensive; notably for the Giannis Antetokounmpo watchers out there, VanVleet’s contract would be immediately tradeable in this example. However, Houston may prefer to lower its immediate burden to navigate the tax aprons for the coming season. Based on VanVleet’s present salary, Houston would go over the first apron if it uses its full nontaxpayer MLE this season; more importantly, perhaps, landing in the tax would start the clock on the repeater penalty as the young, talented Rockets look down the road at a far more expensive future. Because of that, “decline and re-sign” is also likely on the table, where VanVleet re-ups and cuts his salary to about $31 million for the coming season, giving the Rockets more than enough room to spend up to the tax line. Or perhaps they choose a middle ground of this strategy, where VanVleet’s new contract is frontloaded with 8 percent declines and starts at $36 million before landing at $31 million in 2027-28, and Houston accepts a bit less flexibility with the back end of the roster this season as a consequence.
I find it amusing that those experts and journalists think of FVV as a starving kid who has never made big bucks lol and are thinking 30-35 million would be fair.... in the same tone.
Why would the Rockets need to pay him more than 20 mil a season? Is there even a market out there for Fred?
