Estimated odds of being an everyday player and star for various Astros prospects: C Will Bush 20% regular, 5% star C Walker Janek 30% regular, 10% star 2B Brice Matthews 35% regular, 20% star IF Alberto Hernandez 20% regular 5% star SS Chase Jaworsky 25% regular, 5% star OF Joseph Sullivan 25%, regular 10% star OF Jacob Melton 35% regualr, 20% star OF Kenedy Corona 20% regular, 10% star OF Kevin Alvarez 20% regular, 15% star
Miguel Ullola @ Reno: 3.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 4 K Absolute slog as it took him 92 pitches (50 strikes) to get 11 outs.
P Michael Knorr was promoted to AAA. 2022 3rd pick is a huge kid 6’5” 250 who has posted big k rates with slightly elevated walk rates. Projects for middle relief and is Rule 5 eligible this fall. FB up to 96 with a 12/6 CB. Was a tandem starter up until this year and switched to pure relief. C Brian Lavastida was also promoted.
Just looked at Knorr’s savant data from his AAA appearance last night. He threw 35 pitches, relying on his fastball with his slider and cutter mixed in. He threw 1 changeup and 1 curveball. That is interesting because his scouting report says he is a FB/CB guy, and his one curve got good movement on it last night, but was hit hard on the ground for a base hit. The biggest thing to me was that his FB topped out at 98 mph. So he might’ve picked up a tick or two moving to the bullpen. It’ll be interesting to see how he does over the next couple of months and what his pitch mix is. At this point I would consider him very very likely to be added to the 40 man roster this year to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Knorr, Jose Fleury, and Alimber Santa are trending heavily toward needing 40 man spots along with Miguel Ullola. Collin Barber, Patrick Halligan, Trey Dombroski, Brett Gillis, Alex Santos, Manuel Urias, Joey Mancini, Nic Swanson, Andrew Taylor, Amilcar Chirinos, Tyler Guilfoil, and Abel Mercedes have opportunities to play themselves onto a 40 man roster over the 2nd half of the season. Dombroski and Santos would be the 2 I would bet on being protected. Dombroski is a big lefty in the Colton Gordon mold who has very similar numbers to what Gordon had in AA, with a few more walks.
I would rather see Barber get his shot vs Hummel. Hummel isn't/never has been/never will be a MLB level player.
I think it’s hard to judge a guy who plays so sparingly when they get called up. Hummel did get a fair shake as a rookie, getting 200+ pa with the snakes where he sucked. But since then he’s been called up half dozen times and not played enough to make any judgements. It’s fair to say that at age 30 he’s unlikely to do much. But if Houston called him up just to be the 13th guy and not play much, I would rather that be Hummel than a young player who still has a chance to develop more by playing regularly in the minors. But yeah, if they plan on actually playing the guy regularly, I’d rather have seen Whitcomb (or even Barber, although he hasn’t shown anything to make anyone think he deserves a big league callup).
I'm pretty sure that curve was actually a change up that was misclassified. Not too many guys throw a curve with a spin rate less than 1000 rpm or get armside movement on it. The good news is Knorr throws hard, averaging 95.4 last night, with good extension. His fastball doesn't have the vertical movement that some of the Astros prospects have, so I'm not sure it's going to be a bat misser on it's own. There's pretty significant velocity separation between his fastball and his slider/cutter (84-86) and change up (82), which are likely to be what he uses to put hitters away. I hope Santa gets to AAA soon, I'd like to see what he's throwing. Walker Janek has been rather impressive of late. Over the last calendar month, he's slashing .333/.419/.520 with 10 walks to 12 strikeouts. He's also stolen 6 bases without being caught. He's not hitting for a ton of power, but has me feeling better about his hit tool than he did in his pro debut and early parts of this season.
Wish I could say I was optimistic about Tredwell in High A. It might be time to keep an eye on Luis Castro. Yes he’s 29, but he’s 142 pa deep in AAA and has a 167 wRC+, with pretty good plate discipline and max EV numbers. He’s probably not more than a league average bench bat candidate in the mold of Jon Singleton or Tyler White, but he might have some value, and could get the call if there were a significant injury to Walker before Dezenzo is healthy. Since 2006, AAA, wRC+ >160, SwStr% <12% (min 140 pa): Tyler White (twice) Jon Singleton Yordan Alvarez LUIS CASTRO
Hummel likely DFA when Trammel comes off injury? Or is Trammel currently on the trade block and he never comes back?
Espada has made it very clear that he wants a LH bat that he can start regularly ( in addition to Caratini) on this roster. Brown brought up Melton from AAA where he was conservatively starting 3-4 games per week to help keep him from injuring himself. Joe played him everyday and he injured himself. Maybe its just bad luck or coincidence, but it also a fact Hummel is here because he's the only option, but they are winning, so Dana is going to make sure Joe has his lefty bat. He is probably DFA'd or out on waivers when Trammel or Melton return but I do not see them going back to a roster of all RH outfielders again. It will be interesting to see if Guillorme moves to 2b when Paredes returns, or is sent to the bench.
Looks like Hector Salas got promoted to Fayetteville. He's played well on the complexes, but that's been driven by taking a lot of walks. It'll be good to see how he performs against age-appropriate competition. EDIT: I see you beat me to the punch.
Yeah his FCL numbers were great but completely worthless in trying to evaluate him given his age and the variance in FCL talent. Still, he dominated both complex leagues so he’s worth watching closely over his first 150 pa.
