Every position and contract length combo has hits and misses. Goldschmidt and Alonso are veteran free agent 1B producing this season; we’d all be thrilled with them instead of Walker. I don’t think there’s much correlation to determine which ones to avoid purely by position or length or amount. Age is really the common risk factor. Don’t sign old players and if you do, don’t rely on them. I agree that it’s not entirely realistic to avoid large FA deals altogether given Houston can afford some. And I agree the trick is signing the ones that actually produce. Houston has some work to do there. But I think the one thing they can do is focus on internal development such that whichever big FA bats they do sign are only counted on as complementary (6-7-8 hole) players rather than core pieces.
They felt Goldschmidt was more likely to be toast than Walker. Goldy is 3.5 years older than Walker and his OPS went from 1.00 to .8 to .7 the last three seasons. His advanced numbers and bat speed were poor last year. I think some of it is where Goldy is playing and the line up around him and some of it is that he is healthier. Obviously in hindsight signing Goldy would have been better - but some of his deeper numbers this year are unsustainable. His BABIP in March/April was .435 and in May it was still like .330.... that won't continue. Also - against right handers this year he has an OPS of .650
One of the reasons I was stoked about the Walker signing when it happened was because I thought it was a precursor to another move. I thought they were either going to trade for Arenado (moving Paredes to 2B or LF) or go out and add another OF bat (like Polanco or Conforto). That didn’t materialize and instead they inserted Smith in RF; he was clearly ready for the majors but not ready to be an immediate star, so for the time being he represents a bottom of the order hitter, which has put added pressure on Walker and made him counted on as a middle of the order hitter; that’s been exacerbated by losing Alvarez and having Altuve and Diaz not be productive. Walker’s struggles have really been highlighted by things outside of his control: an unbalanced lineup full of righties, a shallow lineup due to rookies, other players slumping, and injuries, and the stain left behind from Jose Abreu.
That's fair. I mentioned RP because it's such a volatile position year to year, and aging 1B because we seem fixated on signing them. I think it's better to spend on productive players in their prime, even at higher cost, because at least you get some of those prime years. The back end of the contract is the cost of doing business. Alonso is a guy in his prime who would have been a great signing last offseason (or next one). Goldschmidt is an guy who seemed to be in decline but he's had a bounce back. This may be a one year (or two+ month) blip.
If I had to sign free agents for 3+ years, I would rather focus on younger players with bounceback potential than older guys trying to squeeze another 2 good years out of their career. But there’s not a lot of those types of guys out there (who warrant more than 2 years).
I agree that all of these are playing part in the Walker situation and he still doesn't move like he has in the past, which leads me to believe he isn't playing at 100%. Getting Alvarez back will help, and it is also why I think looking at Ozuna makes a lot of sense for the Astros. The Astros can sandwich Walker between two very good hitters at that point or drop him in the lineup - as I have never really viewed him as a 4-hole hitter. I know he has hit in the 4-hole in the past, but with his swing and miss and low average - he always struck me as a 5–6-hole guy.
To be fair, none of those other guys you mention would have made a significant difference for us if any positive difference at all Signing/trading for any of the 3 likely means Cam doesn't start the year in Houston, and the only one of them with season numbers better than Cam is Polanco who got there by hitting for an otherworldly 1.284 OPS in April which he followed up with a .413 in May (and .515 in a small sample in June) Cam has outhit Arenado and Conforto and didn't require trade assets or $$ The thing that has put more pressure on Walker to produce is the other that you mention, we have got nothing out of Yordan/Diaz
I think Framber is as good as gone AND SHOULD BE. Thank you for your service, good luck to you. Unless he is willing to sign for 4/$100M the risk/cost is not worth it. And that's why he needed to be traded in the off season. And YES the rotation would be in shambles right now, but Framber has started 13 games and the Astros are 8-5 in those games. How many fewer wins does the Astros have without him? Are they 5-8? If so, they still have a winning record. But thats not factoring anybody at all that gets added because of or in that deal. But again, now its in season and you ride the horse you have.
True, but if they’d made one of those moves one of those guys would be getting talked about as much if not more than Walker and would have been feeling pressure (and probably hitting higher), so even though they haven’t produced it may have had an impact on Walker’s performance. Hard to know what might’ve been.
This actually can't be quantified that way because Brown would have had those starts most likely (moving your #2 up the line and so forth) so the replacement for Framber #1 this year would have been a #5 pitcher. Brown has been excellent this year but if he faced more #1 ace type pitchers then perhaps we lose a few more of those games. Trickling down the line we may have lost 10 more games without Framber this year. Imagine in the playoffs: First scenario is a normal rotation and 2nd scenario is without your ace in those match ups. Astros - Opponent #1 SP < #1 SP L #2 SP > #2 SP W #3 SP > #3 SP W #4 SP > #4 SP W Astros - Opponent #2 SP < #1 SP L #3 SP < #2 SP L #4 SP < #3 SP L #5 SP < #4 SP L
Its a trickle down effect... Framber eats innings and lets the bullpen rest the majority of days he starts. Hell, he'll even throw complete games in some of those games the team may ultimately lose, which still sets the bullpen up well for the next few days. People continue to take for granted his durability and what he's accomplishing by going into the 7th inning (or beyond) in more than half his starts.. especially in a 162g season where you'll need 8 or 9 different starting pitchers at some point, along with at least 2-3 bullpen guys that eventually get hurt or miss time (or just suck). There are less than a handful of pitchers in this league that are pitching at the quality he is... but also the volume he is. The latter facet is entirely responsible for the bullpen reset and ends up being that much more valuable vs. an elite starter that can only go 5-6 consistently (which is pretty much everybody else's #1 or #2 nowadays, minus the extreme minority).
I never liked the idea of Paredes at 2B. 3B is clearly his best position. Seems natural to him. He isn’t built anything like a middle infielder. Maybe when he was younger but not now.
Trading Framber is out of the question right now...we are currently in contention and also very thin at SP. Makes zero sense. Astros are more likely to trade FOR a rental, not part with one.
The bottom line is a 100 loss team still wins 38% of their games. That's 5-8 I can't imagine the Astros being worse than that just because a replacement SP is in the rotation rather than Framber. Of course over any 13 games you could get any possible result from 13-0 to 0-13, but mathematically the Astros would not be worse than 5-8 which is a 3 game difference. Talk all you want about butterfly effects. The team is 8-5 in Framber's starts and should be 5-8 or better in random replacement SP's games.
They've won the last 6 games he's started... and that's directly coincided with them going 19-11. You can believe whatever you want... and call this a "butterfly effect"... I'm simply saying that his ability to eat innings and give this bullpen rest has a direct effect to how this bullpen performs (especially in the games started by Gusto, Gordon, Walter, LMJ coming off injury etc.).... and that may very well show up in the W-L tally beyond simply the games he starts. Even if he doesn't, I'd take 8-5 (or 6-0 the last 2 months) for a full season... vs. the contrary which could very well be worse than 5-8 if you factor all of the above (and everything else holds equal).... over 162 games a guy like him has exponential value on a team in need of offense (plays a lot of close games) and more durable starters. (or in this hypothetical exercise... 8-5 wins 99 games, 5-8 loses 100... we know its not possible for any pitcher to solely have a 20-30 WAR, but his durability is everything right now for this specific team).
Iso is a numbers fan. The numbers dont tell the true value of Framber. Like you said, there are only a handful of pitchers that can do what Framber does. (Give a team 200 quailty innings a yr)
This thread was started less than a week ago and the OP literally said they wanted to do it. @IdStrosfan is arguing right now we could trade Framber and then trade for some bum 4th/5th starter to replace him and be pretty much the same team lmao
