It is really hard to say because he is a polarizing player - If I had to guess I would take the under.
I don't see him signing for less than 6. Because is he's older, he needs to get paid this time. He doesn't want to be leaving money on the table in hopes of getting $25M+ at 36 or 37. This contract needs to get him into his late 30s. For him 7/$175M is better than 5/$150M
Please accept this Primanti Brothers gift card as an undying token of my love. Here I got you the old school Kent Tekulve hat as well. Love ya.
Average contract value goes up every year, and lately it's gone up significantly I personally think he would stay if we gave him 200 million over whatever term as far as years. But it doesn't matter Crane isn't going there, and as much as i'd like for him to in the case of Framber, it's pretty hard to argue with the results of his no long term contract policies
I would do it if the package was as good as what we got for Tucker, but there can't be that many stupid GM's in the league.
Crane seems to have a fairly firm cap for any player around $150M. I’m sure under the right conditions he’d go slightly higher than that but I don’t see him offering any player $200M+ anytime in the next half decade. So for Houston to sign Framber to a somewhat realistic deal it would have to be something like $140M/4yrs or $160M/5yrs, since I don’t see Framber going for anything less than 4 years under any condition. But the reality is this contract almost certainly represents Valdez’s last meaningful payday and he will very very likely go for the maximum guaranteed amount regardless of years, and that’s almost certainly going to come elsewhere.
All I know is that Crane better make Miller and Murphy the highest paid coaches in the MLB. They are worth their weight in gold.
I think they need to start re-evaluating this stance after signing what appears to be another expensive bad contract for a player (Walker) at the tail end of their career. Hopefully Walker turns it around but I'm not sure giving 34+ year old (or in Abreu's case 36) free agents a 3/60M deal is better than giving someone like Framber a 6+ year deal this offseason. At least if you gave Framber that deal, assuming he stays healthy, you're getting great production the first 3+ years before potentially tailing off. I wouldn't do any crazy contract like Tucker is going to get but this resistance to give out 6-8 year deals while giving out 3 year deals to guys already 34+ doesn't make any sense to me.
All free agent deals carry risk. The bigger the contract the bigger the risk. Reality is a team in Houston’s revenue tier needs to be really careful with big contracts; they can afford to have 1-2 go bad but they are not in the tier with LA and NY who can spend without consequences. Luckily they are also not in the tier with KC and Tampa who simply cannot afford large contracts at all. Crane has been wise to avoid $150M+ FA contracts. Turns out he would have been wise to also avoid $50M+ FA contracts. Main lesson in the Walker/Abreu duds to me is don’t sign players past their age 32 season; if you do, do not expect production in those years.
On the last point, if you do make sure it's a 1 year deal like Paul Goldschmidt or Carlos Santana (has been getting 1 year deals for like 3 years now).
I understand the Astro`s stance and hell, I even admire it, those 10 year over bloated contracts are a nail in the coffin for some organizations. As others have mentioned, this could be his last big payday so he will want to maximize his value. I do like @rainingthrees number of 6/200 and hell I would even do 5/200 but I am not sure that would do it as someone out there will overpay based on Framber`s record. At some point we have to pay the going rate, I thought that would be Tucker but that worked out well for both sides...............but a SP of his caliber is where I would draw the line and pony up, between him and Hunter we have to Aces and with quality pitching you can hide some flaws and in a series you possibly have the upper hand
The Carlos Beltran and Michael Brantley signings were examples of the types of deals that make sense for Houston. It’s ok to sign old guys, but you need to limit it to 1-2 years and it needs to be a player you are not counting on to be better than your 6th or 7th best hitter. Even giving out 3 years to Abreu and Walker wouldn’t have been nearly as risky if those guys were only viewed as supplementing a super deep lineup rather than being counted on to produce in the 3-4-5 hole.
Almost every time we are about to lose one of our stars I agree with you But then I look back and try to find the one that got away who has been worth the money he got, and it's hard to argue with the results Crane has got.
In the end, if you sign nobody to big contracts, if you only sign Beltran / Brantley types, you become the Rays or the Royals or the Pirates. Yes, every free agent is a potentially bad deal. It's better to draft and develop well. But the Astros org drew in $494m in revenue last season. 7th in MLB. It's OK sometimes to sign good players, be it your own or someone else's. The trick I think is to sign players who actually produce on the field. I don't think aging 1B or expensive middle relievers have proven to be valuable signings.
The good thing about signing a guy for just a year is if he sucks you don’t even have to ride him out for the entire season. Had we signed Goldschmidt and he was having the season Walker is having right now, we would have already pulled the plug and put Dezenzo there. Maybe Walker bounces back, but if he doesn’t, we will end up playing him for far longer than we like just as we did with Abreu.
